Text 11937, 107 rader
Skriven 2007-02-09 20:49:56 av Josh Hill (15378.babylon5)
     Kommentar till en text av rec.arts.sf.tv.babylon5.moderated
Ärende: Re: Global warming, among other things
==============================================
On Thu, 08 Feb 2007 17:50:04 +0100, Christophe Bachmann
<Chris_CII@Compuserve.com> wrote:

>
>
>Josh Hill a =E9crit :
>> On Tue, 06 Feb 2007 03:23:48 +0000, Andrew Swallow
>> <am.swallow@btopenworld.com> wrote:
>>=20
>>> Josh Hill wrote:
>>> [snip]
>>>
>>>> There's really both a good and bad point here -- the good is that if
>>>> we act now we have the tools to deal with the problem without seriou=
s
>>>> disruptions, the bad is that despite this our government is so
>>>> dysfunctional that we haven't.
>>>>
>>> Global Warming is something to be solved over a 100 years, a Presiden=
t
>>> that will be gone in 2 years is not important.
>>>
>>> At the level of individual states develop and debug policies that
>>> work.  Then and only then apply the policies at Federal Government an=
d
>>> the UN levels.
>>=20
>> Unfortunately, there's no time for that. We have to act now, because
>> if we don't, we'll see a 20 foot sea level rise and as many as half
>> the earth's animal species gone in much less than your 100 years, and
>> because the gases being released /now/ will cause warming for hundreds
>> of years.
>>=20
>> As to solutions, I respectfully disagree. We know what the solutions
>> are. The Bush Administration simply refuses to implement them.
>>=20
>Please, let's not be over-alarmist. I agree absolutely that something=20
>big must be done very soon if we want to avoid very bad things, but the=20
>IPCC :
>
>http://www.ipcc.ch/
>
>has stated that the increase in sea levels would most likely (>90%=20
>confidence) be less than 58 cm (less than two feet) in the next 100 year=
s.
>The problem with "global warming" is that it is a very complex thing=20
>that can have a lot of quite unintended consequences. If you want the=20
>word straight from the horse's mouth please download :
>
>http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
>
>the Summary for Policymakers of the first volume of =93Climate Change=20
>2007=94 of the Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate=
=20
>Change (IPCC), also known as the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Unfortunately, the IPCC's statement about sea levels was obsolete even
before it was published, because they ignored the latest data on ice
melting. I read several articles about it:

'In letters to and conversations with panel members, and in scientific
journals, several climate experts said the estimate was almost
certainly wrong because the panel was leaving out a growing body of
data on melting glaciers and inland ice sheets, which are major
contributors to sea level rise.

'Those experts say that unless the finding is modified, the panel =97
widely cited as an authoritative voice on climate change =97 risks
condemning itself to irrelevance.

'Climate experts have =93a great deal of confidence=94 in observations
that sea level rise is accelerating, said Laury Miller, an
oceanographer at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration who was a reviewer for part of the coming report.=20

'Good satellite measurements date only from the last decade or so, he
said, so it is hard to draw firm long-term conclusions from them.
Also, he said, computer models of how glaciers and ice sheets melt
cannot account for much of the observed melting, even though
=93presumably it is going into the ocean.=94=20

'But so far at least, he said, =93the observed sea level rise has been
tracking the upper range=94 of the 2001 estimate. =93It=92s pretty
unequivocal,=94 he said.

'Michael C. MacCracken, who led the Office of Climate Change in the
Clinton administration and who was also a reviewer for some of the new
assessment, said he could understand why scientists on the panel might
be uneasy about relying too much on models. But in that event, he
said, they should make it known that their estimates did not include
factors like ice sheet movement and collapse, which appear to be
accelerating.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/02/science/02oceans.html?ex=3D1171170000&e=
n=3Dd0c7cab690e191b4&ei=3D5070

--=20
Josh

[Truly] I say to you, [...] angel [...] power will be able to see that [.=
..]
these to whom [...] holy generations [...]. After Jesus said this, he dep=
arted.

- The Gospel of Judas
--- SBBSecho 2.12-Win32
 * Origin: Time Warp of the Future BBS - Home of League 10 (1:14/400)