Text 1215, 129 rader
Skriven 2006-06-01 22:16:00 av Robert E Starr JR (1661.babylon5)
Ärende: Re: Atheists: America's m
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"Kurt Ullman" <kurtullman@yahoo.com> wrote in message 
news:kurtullman-6F70EF.17351401062006@news.west.earthlink.net...
> In article <UNIfg.43902$Lm5.17218@newssvr12.news.prodigy.com>,
> "Vorlonagent" <jt@otfresno.com> wrote:
>
>> 1) Given that the international comunity has taken a very flabby and
>> appeasment-style approach to Iran's nuclear ambitions, it's likley that 
>> Iran
>> will get nuclear weapons barring military action from the US, Israel or
>> both.
>
> Which Iran learned from how the world dealt with N. Korea.

No doubt.

One quibble:

I'm not convinced that N. Korea has a workable bomb.  They were trying to 
build a plutonium device.  Plutonium bomb construction is very tricky.  The 
timing has to be exactly right or all you get a dirty bomb.  I haven't heard 
of any seismic readings indicating a successful bomb test.

No boom, no bomb.

By contrast, Iran is pursuing a uranium device which is pretty simple to 
build once you have the uranium refined to bomb-grade.


>> 2a) It's possible that Iran will launch a nuclear sneak attack on Israel,
>> though not possible until Iran has enough bombs for offensive use, say 30 
>> or
>> so.  How long will that take them?  I'd take a guess at about 10 years. 
>> The
>> rulers of that country are potentially crazy enough.  Exactly HOW crazy 
>> is a
>> crucial point.  Mideast culture is awash in machismo.  Quite often arad
>> bluster ends up being that of a bully who folds the first time he is 
>> punched
>> in the nose.  (unless we give them a track record of previous successes 
>> in
>> which case we have a fight on our hands) Separating bluster from true 
>> intent
>> is difficult on a good day.  The West and especially Europe has often 
>> made
>> no distinction.
>
> Israel has NEVER backed down and always ended up prevailing. I doubt
> that is lost on the Iranians. While the rest of the world may dither and
> give Iran the feeling that maybe they could get away with it (and
> probably could from a world-response), I doubt there is any doubt about
> what Tel Aviv would do, which is the REAL limiting variable.

...which is where the "how crazy are they really?" factor comes in.  If the 
Iranian clerics really believe all that martyrdom and paradise crap they're 
pushing off on their people, there's no downside to unleashing a regional 
nuclear war with Israel.


>> 3b) How *could* the US intervene (in a nuclear manner) to support Israel?
>> If Israel pushes its button, their warheads will be exploding in Iran 
>> within
>> 5 minutes.  Unless Israel and the US collude to create a simultaneous 
>> "time
>> on target" strike where US missiles launch significantly in advance in
>> advance (and in full radar-view of Europe and Rissia) The US would be in 
>> a
>> completely reactive stance.  Launching any ballistic missiles at Iran 
>> would
>> immidately cause the Russians to reach for their own button.  That of 
>> itself
>> should restrain any missile-based nuclear support the US might care to 
>> lend
>> if Israels' own resoruces somehow fall short.
>
>     The lag time is MUCH longer for the US in the Middle East then it
> would have been in a Soviet launch. In the Cold War Days, a missle on a
> certain trajectory from the USSR would have reflexivly triggered our
> launch on pre-selected targets with known targeting information that
> were pointed at their targets pretty much 24/7.
>    If something happened in the Middle East, we would most likely not
> be able to  throw something back while the missles are in the air
> because we will have to figure out what happened, figure out who did it,
> decide what to target and get the targeting information put together and
> then transmitted to whoever is gonna touch off their nukes. By that
> time, Israel will already have turned Iran into a parking lot and would
> be getting ready to sending in the Mossad to paint the stripes. Probably
> wouldn't be anything left to target.

Agreed.

>
>> 3d) Why the hades would Russia or China support Iran with nukes?  What
>> national interest would it serve?  China wants Iranian oil and has some
>> "enemy of my enemy" attraction for any foe of the US.  That's about it.
>> Launching nukes at Israel or the US isn't going to get them a extra drop 
>> of
>> Iranian oil and launching at the US would put them in a direct 
>> confrontation
>> with the US whereupon MAD issues should restrain action.
>
>   And would also cut out their best markets.

Alas, not necessarily or permanantly.


-- 
John Trauger,
Vorlonagent


"Methane martini.
Shaken, not stirred."


"Spirituality without science has no mind.

Science without spirituality has no heart."

-Methuselah Jones
                                                                    
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