Text 14838, 70 rader
Skriven 2007-05-22 17:46:30 av Josh Hill (1251.babylon5)
  Kommentar till text 14821 av rec.arts.sf.tv.babylon5.moderated (1234.babylon5)
Ärende: Re: AGW, rehashed...
============================
On Tue, 22 May 2007 08:30:30 -0700, Charlie Edmondson
<edmondson@ieee.org> wrote:

>Hi Josh,
>I have been thinking about this for a little while this morning, and 
>maybe this analogy will help.
>
>You are driving along the road, and some folks flag you down.  They tell 
>you the bridge is out ahead, so you need to turn around.
>
>But, something doesn't seem right, and, as you look into the distance, 
>you can't see the bridge because of the fog that has come up.  You do 
>see a bunch of folks trying to turn around, but you also see a whole lot 
>of other folks driving on towards the bridge.  You also see that, before 
>driving off, a lot of those folks first shout back to the others "Yes, 
>the bridge is out! Go back!" and then get in their cars and zoom forward.
>
>So, you ask the folks that stopped you how they know the bridge is out. 
>  They confidently tell you "Because we KNOW!" So, you think about 
>turning around, but then you ask again "How did you find out?  Did you 
>see the bridge?  Did someone come back and tell you?"  And, then you 
>find out that, no, nobody came back.  But, they do have indications that 
>the bridge had some wear on it, and it just MIGHT be down by the time 
>you get there.  Our computers predicted it.  And that the real problem 
>is that, if everyone on the road crosses the bridge, then it will fall 
>down.  Not that it is down NOW...
>
>And, then you see some other folks telling everyone to just go on, that 
>everything is all right, that the bridge is fine.  But, whenever someone 
>starts to say that, all those predicting the bridge go over and beat the 
>sn@t out of them, until they shut up.  When you ask why they do that, 
>they say "Those are the bridge construction people.  They want the 
>bridge to fall so that they can build a new one!"
>
>So, you look at the guys shouting for you to stop, look at them beating 
>the other fellows up, and look at all the folks who just keep on the 
>road, and need to make up your mind.
>
>Me, I get in my car, and slow down in the fog...

More like this, I think:

You approach the bridge and the world's bridge engineers are, almost
to a man, standing in front of it waving. You ask why they're waving,
and they say "Because we've studied the condition of the girders, and
our computer projections say that this bridge will collapse sometime
in the next year if it isn't repaired."

So you're about to turn around, but a muffin tin technician who just
happens to have received a $100,000 stipend from the owner of the
motel across the bridge says "Whoa, these bridge engineers don't know
what they're talking about -- the girders are good for another 100
years." And the mayor of the town, who just happens to be a recipient
of a generous campaign contribution from the motel owner, chimes in to
say that "Sure. The whole thing's a conspiracy by the Safe Bridges
Society and the world's universities, which have threatened to fire
any bridge engineer in the world if they don't tow the line and claim
the bridge is about to collapse."

-- 
Josh

"The conservative movement is founded on the simple tenet
that people have the right to live life as they please,
as long as they don't hurt anyone else in the process. . . .
The radical right has nearly ruined our party. Its members
do not care about the Constitution and they are the
ones making all the noise." - Barry Goldwater
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