Text 242, 75 rader
Skriven 2005-02-22 17:21:00 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av STEVE ASHER
Ärende: Iran Calls For Allian 1/4
=================================
Hello Steve,

>SA>Iran Calls for Alliance to Combat U.S. and Israel

>SA>02/1705 "The Scotsman" - - Iran urged regional countries to create
>SA>a powerful alliance today and remain vigilant in the face of "US and
>SA>Israeli plots."

>LL>Hahahahahahahahaha!  A member-state of the Axis of Evil calls on
>LL>Syria to replace Iraq to become the next victim of regime change.

SA>It might sound laughable, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet. Iran could
SA>not easily attack Israel while Saddam was in power & propped up by the
SA>USA during the Iran/Iraq war. Iraq remains a barrier to Iran while
SA>coalition forces remain, but Iran will attack Israel when to time is
SA>right, and with a number of allies - eg Russia, Libya, Syria.

Armed with nukes, Iran could be a problem.  But if Iran is suspected of
actually having nukes, Iran would become no more.  My guess is that the
US and/or Israel would take out Iran *before* Iran could come up with
having actual nukes.

>LL>What a joke!  Syria is much weaker than Iraq was.  Furthermore, the
>LL>regime in Syria is led by a heretical sect within a heretical sect,
>LL>having virtually no support amongst the people of Syria. In a war
>LL>with the U.S., Syria would last maybe a week.  At best. That is, if
>LL>it had support from Iran.  Otherwise, give Syria three days.  At
>LL>most.

SA>I doubt it will matter if the USA attacks Syria under the pretext of
SA>the Syria Accountability Act, which seems destined to paint Syria into
SA>a corner & make invasion inevitable as happened with Iraq, or if Iran/
SA>Syria simply act preemptively against Israel before a USA invasion.

Militarily, Syria would be no match for the US.  Neither would Syria be
a match for Israel.  The problem is, if Syria is attacked by either the
US or Israel, the entire Middle East could go up in flames.  Sure, Syria
invaded Lebanon in 1976.  And Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982.  But times
have changed.  The Palestinians have started *two* intefadahs.  And
Yasser Arafat is no longer around to keep the peace.  Sharon is not just
a general anymore.  He is the leader of Israel.  Many Palestinians, and
Arabs, view Sharon as being a war criminal, a result of his doing
nothing to stop the massacre of refugees in Lebanon two decades ago.

>SA>The call came a day after Syria and Iran declared they would form a
>SA>united front in the face of any threats.

>LL>The Iran/Syria alliance has become the biggest joke on the planet.

SA>I don't see what alternative Syria has - the Accountability Act has
SA>sufficient clauses to ensure that Syria would would be unwilling or
SA>unable to comply with all of them - Syria might reasonably halt
SA>support for terrorism and end its occupation of Lebanon. It might
SA>not be unable to stop development of "weapons of mass destruction"
SA>if, like Iraq, it isn't developing any - not having the things is
SA>not a defence against a US invasion. It might not be in a position
SA>to "cease its illegal importation of Iraqi oil", especially if the
SA>USA, as an occupying power in Iraq, is apparently unable to cease
SA>illegal exportation of oil (if any) to Syria. The "other purposes"
SA>could be trumped up into a pretext for a US invasion - Condi giving
SA>a Powell-style address to the UN with a whole heap of "garden grunt"
SA>about Syria's Winnebagoes of Death, Anthrax, aloominum toobs etc etc.
SA>She could re-use Powell's speech & props, & just change a few names.

After Powell's famous speech at the UN, Powell lost all credibility
among diplomats throughout the world.  Rice has now replaced Powell,
but everybody knows she will do the same as Powell - lie for the
president.  As such, she has just as much credibility as Powell among
diplomats.  Which is to say, none.

>>> Continued to next message

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