Text 19336, 122 rader
Skriven 2011-12-23 09:19:00 av MICHAEL LOO (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av JIM WELLER
Ärende: Restaurant failure 391
==============================
I know that Jim's gone for a while, but this topic could
conceivably live on in his absence.

 ML> statistic - 60% of new restaurants go under within 3 years.
 ML> (Not 90% in the first year, which would imply that cooks
 ML> are way stupider than other entrepreneurs.)
 JW> Actually, in my 37 years cumulative experience in equipment
 JW> finance, then banking and now real estate (which includes commercial
 JW> leasing) the numbers I have seen are much lower than 60%.

Consider where you are. I'm guessing that undercapitalized
ventures would be laughed into nonexistence from the outset
up there, where nobody has a place to hide. Unless one's name
is Chef Pierre, or one is Filipina, or ... .

Other estimates I've seen are 57-59% in 3 years, 70% in 10 years,
and so on. It looks like all the numbers, as most statistics are,
are made up.

  The
 JW> largest, most authoritative study I have ever seen was done using
 JW> public health licensing records which only show change of ownership.
 JW> Not every change of ownership is a forced sale, failure or
 JW> bankruptcy. Some are as mundane as an immigrant anglicizing his name
 JW> in subsequent years or an operator adding a spouse on as a partner.

The largest and most authoritative study I have seen was done
in I believe Columbus, which I'd imagine a more stable market
than, say, out east, though more tumultuous than out in the
hinterlands. I see nothing on the Internet that indicates that
the study didn't allow for false positives such as caused by a
mere name change.

 JW> Back when I was in industrial equipment finance, we only saw the
 JW> high risk deals, as some setups were all cash and others bankable.
 JW> We only got called in by the restaurant supply and equipment dealer
 JW> to look at applications from those who couldn't raise bank
 JW> financing. Of that subset, less than 10% failed during the first
 JW> three years of business. Of course there's a fourth subset: the
 JW> people we declined who borrowed a third of the money truly needed
 JW> to set up properly, from their relatives, and who failed within the
 JW> first three months and the lease purchase agreements between
 JW> undercapitalized ex-employees and their retired bosses that fall
 JW> apart and the owner reluctantly comes out of retirement to put
 JW> things back into shape and run the place again. 

I'm thinking that fourth subset is all too large.

 JW> This seems to be the invention of a single restaurant and not a
 JW> known dish so I couldn't find a real recipe. The picture looks good
 JW> though.
 JW> Title: Tears In Eyes

The picture looked pretty unappetizing to me. I doubt not that
the extremely poor among the Szechwanese might have eaten
of this kind of food, but the tears in their eyes would
not have been from the spiciness of the dish but rather
from the emptiness of their larders.

---------- Recipe via Meal-Master (tm) v8.05

      Title: Vegetarian Lo Mian
 Categories: Chinese, lo mein
      Yield: 4 Servings

      1 oz Mu er (wood ears), the thick
           -kind, black on one side and
           -grayish white on the other
           -(when dry)
      8    Dried Chinese black
           -mushrooms
      2 tb Shredded Sichuan zha cai
           -(preserved vegetable)
    1/4 c  Shredded carrot
      4 c  Shredded green cabbage
      1 ts Minced fresh ginger
    1/2 lb Dried noodles
      4 tb Corn oil
      1 tb Light soy sauce
      1 ts Coarse salt

-----------------------------------SAUCE-----------------------------------
      1 tb Light soy sauce
      1 tb Corn oil or peanut oil
      1 ds White pepper

  Here are the ingredient lists of two of Florence Lin's recipes from her
  Complete Book of Chinese Noodles, Dumplings and Bread. For both of these
  recipes, pretty much follow the same procedure I described in the last
  post*. Notes: 1. mu erh and dried mushrooms have to be soaked before use; 2.
  the ingredients listed here under "also" are to be tossed with the noodles
  immediately after cooking; 3. I myself would never use ginger in lo mein -
  I'd substitute garlic; 4. I'd substitute sesame oil (hot pressed Chinese
  variety) for any other oil used except in frying; 5. you could use table
  salt for coarse salt here, no problem.

  Source: Florence Lin

  *appended:
  Frizzle the garlic in the vegetable oil and discard (or eat). Put aside 2/3
  of the oil. Heat the rest of the oil and stir-fry the carrot, mu erh, and
  cabbage until just about cooked. Add the scallions and give one more stir.
  Remove and reserve. Heat half the remaining oil and stir-fry the pork (over
  higher heat than you used for the veggies). Remove and reserve.

  Cook the noodles until just about done, using the package directions,
  or if you can't read the package directions, using the taste test. Drain,
  rinse in COLD water, and toss with a little sesame oil.

  Heat the rest of the oil, and when it's hot, dump the noodles in, stirring
  rapidly. Add the soy sauce while stirring. Then add the vegetables, give a
  stir, then the pork. Taste for seasoning; if it's too bland, add salt and
  Tabasco. Serve hot.

  The reason for correcting the seasoning with salt rather than soy sauce is
  that too much soy sauce will mask the delicate flavor of the vegetables.

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