Text 23919, 118 rader
Skriven 2012-04-21 20:32:00 av Glen Jamieson
     Kommentar till en text av Michael Loo
Ärende: 1 T/O 1 L 556 20421
===========================
 -=> Quoting Michael Loo to Glen Jamieson <=-

 ML> Considering that the cost incurred from a planeful of casualties
 ML> would exceed the value of the aircraft itself, safety is the
 ML> largest concern.
 GJ> Everything is a compromise, including safety.  No transport is 100%
 GJ> safe, as indicated by the regular crashes of flying machines, ships,
 GJ> cars and bicycles.

 ML> I am not claiming that "Ted wants you to be SAFE!" the way
 ML> a certain retired preflight announcement did. I am claiming
 ML> that the ensurance of life and limb is the most important
 ML> concern for the airlines because of the cost factor. If the
 ML> savings in not doing safety inspections and repairs were
 ML> such that they could cover the cost of a few passenger
 ML> losses, the airlines would be perfectly happy to lose some
 ML> hulls here and there. Alaska and Southwest have among others
 ML> been implicated in failure to inspect and repair, with
 ML> embarrassing and in one fairly recent case disastrous results.

There have been other occasions where safety has been similarly
compromised, particularly in some countries where lawyers sights are
set somewhat lower than in USA.  How much power does your airline
safety regulating body have to check operators' compliance with
aircraft maintenance requirements?  That was the main reason for
shutting down Tiger Airways here last year.  In my experience, the
first sign of skimping on maintenance is when toilets go out of
service and remain that way for successive flights.

 ML> The first requirement of an aircraft is that it
 GJ> should fly and carry a revenue-earning load of passengers and/or
 ML> This is quite different from the first requirement of an
 ML> airline, which is to survive fiscally intact. It was pointed

That would be the first requirement, but not the main purpose of a
private airline, which is to make money for the owners.

 ML> out by me and others that back in the 1980s and 1990s the
 ML> best way for United (to take a pertinent example) to turn a
 ML> profit would be to leave the passenger carrier business
 ML> altogether. There was a diversificatory period in which it
 ML> bought various other enterprises - computer companies, car
 ML> rental companies (I forget which), and the Hilton and Westin
 ML> hotels. Unfortunately, it continued to stick with its original
 ML> mission, and as air transportation became more unprofitable,
 ML> instead of doing what was sensible and shut down, it divested
 ML> its profitable operations to gain vast infusions of liquidity,
 ML> which it promptly squandered, with the most serious blow
 ML> coming in the downturn after September 11, 2001.

An interesting parallel with railways, which originally were created
to transport people, but now passengers are not profitable, and the
big money earner is bulk cargo, which is something that they excel at.
Passengers only become at all profitable when the train journey is
part of a package, including hotels and entertainment along the way.

 GJ> Safety is very important, but when you read that vital structural
 GJ> components of most modern aircraft have to be inspected regularly and
 GJ> if cracks exceed the allowable size, the bits have to be replaced,
 GJ> that may give cause for worry.
 ML> The airlines are skating that thin maintenance line, always have.
 ML> What skews the system in favor of my peace of mind is the fact
 ML> that the potential cost of losing me (and 100-300 equivalent others) 
 ML> is prohibitive.

Keep believing that, if it gives you comfort.  Cynically, I fear that
marginal airlines are prepared to fold and go bankrupt, rather than
pay billions in damages claims, and the top brass will survive more or
less untouched.  With that way out, they can keep going for as long as
they can stay ahead of FAA regulators and inspectors.
 
 GJ> One of the interesting features of metals is that some metals, such as
 GJ> steel, will develop fatigue cracks if repeatedly stressed beyond their
 GJ> "endurance limit", but if stressed less than that limit, they will
 GJ> never fail, no matter how many times the stress is repeated.  BUT,
 GJ> most metals, in particular aluminium alloys, have no such endurance
 GJ> limit, and will eventually fail under repeated stress.  Aeroplanes are

 ML> Returning to someplace where you have useful information to
 ML> convey, I like that very much.

(Glen bows slightly in your direction, in acknowledgement.)
 
 GJ> in cycling of stresses.  Main components, such as wings and fuselages
 GJ> should last the normal life of the aircraft without failure, but
 GJ> should still be checked regularly for developing cracks.  Some early
 GJ> 737s used for frequent short-haul routes have had fuselage failures.

 ML> Indeed. Other aircraft of Boeing and other manufacture as well.

Aircraft accident investigations make really fascinating reading.
Yesterday, another early 737 run by a cash-strapped airline in
Pakistan has come to a sticky end...
 
 GJ> I hope this hasn't frightened you too much, but if worried about what
 GJ> plane to fly in, look for something that has been in service without
 GJ> failure for a couple of years, but not an ancient jet that is near the
 GJ> end of its life.

 ML> That has not been a major concern for me, though I must admit
 ML> that I have avoided airlines that employ MD-8x and MD-9x aircraft
 ML> (Delta and American, mostly) using that partially as an excuse.

They are fairly recent, probably OK, but if anyone is still running
the earlier, DC-xx versions, those might be getting a bit tired.
 
 ML> I don't worry about those larger than myself. I worry about
 ML> those more skillful than myself. And firearms and other
 ML> loud noise producing machinery.

We both need to have blind faith in the effectiveness of those public
servants who are charged with preventing such machinery from being
used to our disadvantage.

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