Text 1239, 195 rader
Skriven 2004-12-29 14:54:00 av Old Father Time (1:278/230)
Ärende: A New Species of Man?
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Our conjecture is that a new species of human being is emerging, this
time not from some painfully slow Darwinian process, but as the result
of our own breakneck progress in science and technology. This species
will be as different from ourselves as we were from our line of human
predecessors and will challenge us in much the same way as we
challenged them. And they did not survive.

Before we examine the consequences of this momentous development we
must first establish the evidence that it really is taking place.

One process by which a new species may emerge is when two groups within
the species become separated, traditionally by some form of physical
barrier such as, in the case of some plants, a range of hills. Each
group then evolves separately through natural selection and eventually
become so different that even if the groups are reunited they cannot
cross breed, and hence they continue on their separate evolutionary
paths. In our case this barrier is not physical, but technological, and
the process is not by natural selection but is driven by man himself.
Thus we are designing our own successors and sowing the seeds of our
own potential extinction, should they not look kindly on us when they
assume control.

We should not be comforted by the fact that our current species is the
result of 100,000 years or so of slow progression. The theory of
punctuated equilibrium says that development is static for most of the
time and then proceeds suddenly, 'like flashes of evolutionary
lightening'. We need look back only 10 years, let alone 100 or 1000
years to see that we are in a period of exponential growth of knowledge
and technology. We cannot possibly imagine where we will be in another
1000 years, or even 100, if we continue at this ever-accelerating rate.

However, back to the evidence. Broadly speaking for two species to be
distinct each group must have different characteristics and be able to
reproduce within their own group but not to be able to cross breed with
the other. In general a new species must then be able to evolve
further, gradually changing its characteristics with time but remaining
within its own breeding group. So what will be the characteristics of
the new species that will differentiate it from us?

The first versions will be products of current research and development
in the rapidly converging areas of biology, microelectronics, genetics,
communications, information processing, neuroscience, and medical
science. They will be human bodies and minds augmented by an array of
biological and non-biological devices to improve overall performance.
This development probably started with the first wooden leg and
pirate's hook and has progressed through remedial and preventative
medicine and surgery to implanted devices such as heart pacemakers and
cochlear implants for the deaf. Increasingly these latter devices have
been microelectronics based and with sophisticated interfaces to human
organs.

For example experiments are taking place on electronic retinal implants
for the blind that will convert signals from an external camera and
communicate these to the brain. Although these developments are aimed
at rectifying deficiencies, there is no reason to think that they will
not in the future be designed to make fundamental improvements to human
capabilities. A potential application would be the transmission of
computer-generated images directly to the brain, thus eliminating the
screen and the eyestrain associated with the current computer usage. If
this seems far-fetched then think back 20 years and consider what
seemed far-fetched then! The fictional bionic man is becoming a
practical reality.

Advances in genetic engineering now promise measures to deal with some
human ailments that are due to genetic defects. This involves modifying
human DNA, potentially changing the very basis of how our bodies work
and even how we think. Human cloning would merely be the beginning, not
the end. We are also learning how to 'seed' our bodies to regenerate
cells within defective organs and to 'grow' organs outside of our
bodies that contain our own DNA and which can subsequently used as
spare parts. The production of organs that are fundamentally better
than the current human designs and which are implanted as a matter of
course may become a reality. Longevity

will increase through the conquering of some existing killer diseases
and through increased use of biological and non-biological measures.
Indeed the aging process itself may be slowed down in the course of
time through genetic and biological engineering.

Achieving and maintaining the body beautiful will be aided not only by
increasing consciousness of diet and exercise, but by treatments such
as genetic muscle building vaccines which will make our tedious
existing methods unnecessary. Designer foods with extensive genetic
modifications will allow us to complete the transformation from eating
to live to living to enjoy taste bud sensations without the attendant
bodily consequences.

As well as the direct enhancement of their human bodies, our privileged
group will have closely integrated external attachments further
augmenting their performance. We are already planning for
telecommunications, personal computing and Internet applications to be
with us at all times, with continuous speech recognition and either
pocket book sized reading tablets or direct retinal projection via
spectacle-like devices replacing cumbersome keyboards and video
screens. No wires, of course. These facilities will be no more
obtrusive than the designer sunglasses and personal CD player of
today's trendy young things.

All these measures will be expensive and initially available only to
the to the privileged class who inhabit the wealthy technological world
and their rich associates elsewhere. Thus a technological barrier will
develop between two groups of humans. This has clearly started, witness
the non-availability of many forms of advanced consumer goods as well
as advanced health and education services to large sections of the
world's population. The 'have nots' have been around a long time and
the gap is widening.

So the characteristics of the privileged group will include more robust
internal organs, more attractive external appearance, bionic
enhancements and a greater life expectancy than the rest. In addition
the group will develop within the new knowledge-based society, where
manual tasks have largely disappeared and many previously cerebral
activities have been automated. The concentration will be on life-style
rather than survival, with big business being the ideological driving
force rather than any moral, ethical or religious direction.

The question remains whether this new group is significantly more
different from today's standard human than, say a denizen of the City
or Wall Street is from a remote South American Indian who has never had
access to a telephone let alone seen a laptop computer. To address this
we look at the second requirement for a new species: the ability to
reproduce within its own group but not to cross breed with others.

Increasingly in the wealthy technological world reproduction is a
planned process, with prospective parents making the decisions if and
when to have a child, and with supporting health care services to
ensure that that it is healthy from the point of conception, or even
before, through birth and post-natal development. Many identified
deficiencies may be rectified during this process and decision points
exist to terminate non-viable or unwanted births. In addition
reproduction technology has for some years provided intravenous
fertilisation, allowing reproduction to take place without the direct
involvement of a male sexual partner. Similarly research on artificial
wombs promises to alleviate the need for direct involvement of the
female. Added to this is the possibility of creating multiple embryos
and selecting via genetic testing the one most likely to meet the
parents' expectations.

It is arguable therefore that we are approaching a stage where
reproduction becomes a largely automated process, with the direct
involvement of the parents being limited to specifying the timing and,
increasingly, some characteristics of the offspring. This will have
little to do with the old fashioned pleasures of sexual encounter,
which will become increasingly part of the life style profile of
members of the new group rather than being fundamental to the survival
of the species. Indeed if some of the more fanciful projections for
virtual reality sex are realised then the need for traditional sexual
contact may be eliminated altogether.

Even so, why can this new group of humans not continue to interbreed
with the old group, thus disproving that a new species has emerged?
After all the two groups will inhabit the same Earth and will have many
similar characteristics. Just as we have with chimpanzees.

Some established reasons why two populations with the same ancestry may
not be able to interbreed are that they live in different habitats,
their mating behaviour is different, their sex cells are incompatible,
or their offspring do not survive. That the two groups live in
different habitats is increasingly the case. Those most likely to
develop into the new group inhabit the rich technological world or in
small wealthy enclaves elsewhere, with diminishing regular contact with
the rest.

Mating behaviour is changing rapidly within the new group. The concept
of a partner for life, or even a partner at all, is disappearing, as is
the need for a known partner for the purposes of reproduction.
Reproduction is a choice, not a necessity and decreasingly the result
of an unwanted or chance encounter. Conventional fertility is
decreasing in the new group, which together with a strong trend towards
planned reproduction at a later-than-natural age further widens the
division between the groups. Thus reproduction through chance mating
between the groups will diminish. Indeed if the automation of the
reproduction process within the new group leads to the production of
sperm and eggs being possible only on request and under the control of
third parties then the possibility of inter breeding disappears. This
may appear to be the nightmare of eugenics over again, but it could
arise not from some ideological madness but as a natural corollary of
our technology-led evolution.

Whether a new species is emerging or whether it is merely an
ever-increasing gap between the 'have's' and 'have nots', it is
incontrovertible that it is happening at an alarming pace. Thus whether
we are going to see two species competing for survival on Darwinian
principles or merely an internal battle between two groups of homo
sapiens trying to impose their wills, remains to be seen. But whatever
happens, it's going to be sooner rather than later.
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