Text 1206, 34 rader
Skriven 2004-10-24 12:38:26 av Björn Felten (1:229/2000)
     Kommentar till en text av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: "Proof"
===============
 BF>> That's just simple maths, and the time will come well within one
 BF>> generation. With the present economic growth numbers, one can easily
 BF>> see that China will pass USA in late 2009 and EU in early 2010.

 RB> I've seen figures like that bandied around for the last 20 years.

   Then you really should start thinking about changing news source. This
development has only been happening for the last five, or so, years. And it is
well within statistical certainty, so you don't have to doubt that the
prediction is correct -- there actually *are* well defined mathematical rules
about this, so you can forget about all the jokes about 'statistics, lies and
d*mn lies'.

 RB> direction is certainly clear, but people who try to just extrapolate
 RB> linearly from the present often find that reality is more complex than
 RB> theory.

   You mean like when you try to dismiss the EUR/USD ratio whenever there is a
big change? What's it down to now, BTW? Almost 1.30, right?

 BF>> The only thing that can prevent this from happening, I think, is that
 BF>> the US, or even the EU, will come up with some WoMD or similar excuse,
 BF>> and then "act accordingly"...

 RB> Nice joke. Surely you didn't mean that seriously.

   Of course it was no joke. We saw it happen to Iraq, when the oil barons got
pissed off because Saddam was arrogant enough to start selling the Iraqi oil
for EUR rather than USD. As long as the oil barons have a puppy in the White
House, this is the kind of actions the world can expect to happen, whenever the
baron's profits are threatened, what else is new?

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