Text 18895, 193 rader
Skriven 2005-12-17 15:46:00 av FRANK SCHEIDT (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av MICHIEL VAN DER VLIST
Ärende: Sociopaths!
===================
-=> Quoting Michiel Van Der Vlist to Frank Scheidt <=-

 >> Since the Netherlands of today has nowhere *near* the power
 >> the Netherlands had a few centuries back, that doesn't scare me.

 MVDV>> The Netherlands has a LOT more power than it had 300 years back. But
 MVDV>> of course so have all the others and relatively speaking The
 MVDV>> Netherlands is not a powerful nation any more.
 
 > As you well know I meant power relative to the rest of the world.

 MVDV> How could I possibly know that? I can only go by what you write and it
 MVDV> is not what you wrote. Had I assumed you meant "relative to the rest of
 MVDV> the world" I would have been ASSuming and I prefer not debate on the
 MVDV> basis of assumptions. 

Sorry, I has assumed (if you'll pardon the expression) that you 
read *ideas* not mere words.  My error.  I suppose that's because 
English is my first language ... [sigh] ...

 MVDV>> So I can understand why you are not impressed. But as a
 MVDV>> rational man, it should make you think. Support for the
 MVDV>> USA is shrinking and like it or not: you need it.
 
 > The world needs us far more than we need the world.

 MVDV> That is where you are mistaken. The USA can not survive as it is
 MVDV> without importing things. The rest of the world OTOH can survive very
 MVDV> well without the USA.
 
The rest of the world *could* survive without us.  I agree.  
However we, too, could exist without the rest of the world.  
American ingenuity is widely known and widely envied throughout 
the world -- at least that part of the world that know how we 
operate.  Our climate is wide enough and varied enough -- from 
the frigid Arctic to the tropical forests of Puerto Rico

 > However it's best if everyone got along.

 MVDV> True. That is why it is imperative that the US change their foreign
 MVDV> policy.

Our foreign policy is aimed at world-wide peace, world-wide 
prosperity ...

 MVDV>>> Also I can sell my dollar based investments. If everyone in
 MVDV>>> the world sells US stock, the US economy will collapse. You
 MVDV>>> may not realise it, but you *need* our goodwill...
 
 >> But if you (collectively) sell your US stock, the price will
 >> drop and I'll be able to pick some up at a bargain price.

 MVDV>> You will be buying old paper...
 
 > So?  It still represents ownership of part of some company.

 MVDV> Which is worthless if the US economy collapses.

Of course, however it's highly unlikely our economy will ever 
collapse again.  We learned from the decade-long Great Depression 
of the 1930s.  Note, for example, how carefully the Federal 
Reserve Board keeps an eye on inflation and keeps it weak.
 
 >> After all, the profits of those companies will still roll and the
 >> shareholders will benefit.

 MVDV>> That is where you err. When everyone outside the US sells their dollar
 MVDV>> stuff, not just the price in Dollars will drop, but the Dollar itself
 MVDV>> will drop. And that will burst the bubble of the US economy.
 
 > Our economy is firmly-based -- *hardly* a "bubble" ...

 MVDV> Writing 3000 million IOU's every day is not solid based economy...

It is when you are certain those IOUs will be *paid* when 
presented for payment.  The US, unlike many other nations, has 
*never* refused to pay a debt.

 MVDV>> There is no net profit.

 MVDV>> Every day the US has to loan 3000 million Dollars to make up
 MVDV>> for the deficit. Selling US stock means calling in those
 MVDV>> debts. And of course the US will be unable to do that.
 
 > Huh?  Selling stock merely means transferring some ownership
 > from European hands to American hands.

 MVDV> I think I confused "stock" with "bonds".

OK ...

 MVDV> The USA is unable to buy all those bonds. If they did, they had no
 MVDV> need to sell them in the first place. So if everyone tries to sell his
 MVDV> bonds, the bubble will burst.

So the US didn't buy those bonds which current European 
bond-holders, for whatever reason, wanted to sell?  Someone would 
buy them.  If they wouldn't the only losers are the Europeans who 
apparently need the money.  When the bonds finally mature the US 
will pay the holders.  The European owners of those bonds needn't 
fear.  It's not like the WWI war debts *still* owed to the US by 
several European nations, including England and France.  Finland 
was the only nation which paid.

 MVDV>> So no one will give you any more loans, the Dollar will
 MVDV>> collapse and the oil producing countries will trade in
 MVDV>> Euro only. That means you will not be able to import the
 MVDV>> oil you so desperately need. You will run out of it in a
 MVDV>> couple of month and then your 4WD muscle car will be grounded.
 
 > That's merely your overly-pessimistic view of the U.S. economy

 MVDV> I don't think I am overly pessimistic.

Of *course* you don't ... 

 MVDV>> The only reason this hasn't happened yet is because it is not in the
 MVDV>> interest of anyone to have the US economy collapse.
 
 > Ours is the most healthy economy on earth.

 MVDV> Writing 3000 million IOU's every day is not healthy economy...

It *is* healthy when there's no question that those IOUs will be 
paid when due.
 
 > If it collapses financial depression will strike the entire world.

 MVDV> No doubt that it will have great negative effect for many people. That
 MVDV> is the reason why everyone is cooperating to keep the bubble intact for
 MVDV> as long as possible.

Good for them ... you ...

 MVDV> However if the US keeps overspending, it is not a question of "if" but
 MVDV> "when" the bubble will burst.

We'll see, won't we?
 
 >> BTW, the next time Germany invades France through Belgium and
 >> The Netherlands you can probably count on our help again ...

 MVDV>> That's not going to happen. The economies are too much
 MVDV>> intertwined to make that profitable. Today a war between
 MVDV>> France and Germany is as unlikley as war between North
 MVDV>> and South Carolina. Less likely I'd say.
 
 > I'm not speaking of war *today*, but in the future.

 MVDV> *If* that ever happens in the distant future, the USA will no longer
 MVDV> be in a position to do anything as by then the US empire will have
 MVDV> collapsed. 

We have no "empire".  Over a century ago an American President 
tried to emulate the wide-spread European empires by ruthlessly 
attacking Spain and acquiring the Philippines.  Those days are 
long past!

 > Europeans seem to *love* war as much as *we* hate it.

 MVDV> Wrong. Europeans loath war. That is why we have gone through great
 MVDV> efforts to unite the countries and founded the EU.
 
Europe *loathes* war!??!?!!    Are you familiar with European 
history?  It is almost one of *continuous* war until the US 
pacified it during WWII ...

 > Which is why we fight only defensive wars.

 MVDV> Nonsense. The (second) war in Iraq was not the first that was based on
 MVDV> a lie. 
 MVDV> The Tonkin incident that triggered the Vietnam war also was a lie. 

Absolutely!  That was the result of Lyndon Johnson's desire to 
gain "glory" for his failed presidency.

 MVDV> was the "baby incident" in Gulf war I. 

Huh?  What's *that*!?!

 MVDV> There is more, the list is long.

I'd like to see it ...

 MVDV> The USA is not a peaceful nation.

We are very peaceful -- until attacked or viably threatened ...

... Don't quote me on that.

___ Blue Wave/QWK v2.20
--- Platinum Xpress/Win/WINServer v3.0pr5
 * Origin: Try Our Web Based QWK: DOCSPLACE.ORG (1:123/140)