Text 5372, 81 rader
Skriven 2005-01-31 00:43:43 av Ulrich Schroeter (2:244/1120)
   Kommentar till text 5365 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
Ärende: Nodelist # 366
======================
Hi Michiel,

Sunday January 30 2005 13:49, you wrote to me:

 MV> Hello Uli,

 ...

 >>>> 18 years after  probably R24 will has been closed ....
 >>>> http://ambrosia60.fidosoft.de/garbcoll/p24stat5.htm
 >>MV> Yeah, I saw that. But I don't think your method of prediction is
 >>MV> correct.

statistic, more statistic, lie ....   =;)

 >>MV>  You are assuming linear decay. I used the same method
 >>MV> in 1997 to predict the end of R28 to be at the true end of the
 >>MV> millennium: december 2000. R28 is still here. The decay didn't
 >>MV> stay lineair, it flattened off. I expcect the same will happen
 >>MV> in R24.
 >> i've started trend analyze in nov. '03
 MV> Then your basis for the extrapolation was a bit shallow...

its an extraction on the linear leavings part
         ^
       /   \
     /       \
   /           \

>          |--->

includes actual influences of actual technical innovations
i.e. cdp, ip and so on
that may reduce the leavings but cant stop it ....


 >> The first 2 months the trend increased from 2005 upto
 >> 2010.Now, within the last 10 month this trend hasn't
 >> essentialy changed, it remains static ... and is now about
 >> 15 months later about linear ....
 >> there are about some steps, but this is within the variance
 MV>
 MV> How many percent of the nodes that were there at the top are still
 MV> left?
 MV>
 MV> In here there once (1995) were 1200 nodes and 5600 registered points.
 MV> The decay started to level of at the 100 sysop point. Now there are
 MV> about 40 left in The Netherlands and the numbers are stable. So at the
 MV> 8% level the deacy started to deviate from linear and at 3% it became
 MV> stable. Has R24 regressed to that point yet?

          r24 unique sysops
1997/01      3695            100,0 %
                                      - 3254
2003/11       441             11,9 %              100,0 %
                                      - 82
2005/01       359              9,7 %               81,4 %


 MV> Note that R28 and R29 have merged to form a new R28 last year.

i know about ...

 >>MV> Will FidoNet survive until 2032? No I don't think so either. By
 >>MV> that time other mechanisms will come into play. In 28 years I
 >>MV> will be 86. The IT guy at the old folk's home probably will not
 >>MV> be able to let my DOS apps run at the computers they have there
 >>MV> for the clients...
 >> probably you'll be a museums guardman ?
 MV> At 86? ;-)

in germany they talk about that in a few years the pensions
are less. I estimate, only my private pension will give me
a "normal" pension otherwise addtl. job is needed .....

 MV> Cheers, Michiel

regards, uli   ;-)

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 * Origin: AMBROSIA - 63067 Offenbach/M. (2:244/1120)