Text 25985, 172 rader
Skriven 2009-01-12 09:17:40 av Roy Witt (1:397/22)
  Kommentar till text 25980 av Joe Bruchis (1:226/600.0)
Ärende: Ice Age
===============
12 Jan 09 07:00, Jeff Binkley wrote to All:


 JB> * Copied (from: MATZDOBRE) by Joe Bruchis using timEd/386 1.10.y2k+.

I wish you would have formatted it to 75 charcters per line.


 JB> http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0

 JB> Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

 JB> The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according
 JB> to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of
 JB> climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge
 JB> base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve
 JB> thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an
 JB> end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the
 JB> next 100,000 years.

 JB> Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of
 JB> ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic
 JB> pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000
 JB> years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting
 JB> about 12,000 years.

 JB> Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources
 JB> also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles
 JB> which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three
 JB> Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a
 JB> 41,000 year period; the shape of the earths orbit, which changes over
 JB> a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also
 JB> known as the earths wobble, which gradually rotates the direction of
 JB> the earths axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the
 JB> Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical
 JB> cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which
 JB> reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age
 JB> maximums and warm interglacials.

 JB> Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first
 JB> presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was
 JB> developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and
 JB> the theory was established in its present form by the Serbian
 JB> mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the
 JB> prestigious journal Science published a landmark paper by John
 JB> Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled Variations in
 JB> the Earth's
 JB> orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages, which described the correlation
 JB> which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate
 JB> data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the
 JB> astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the
 JB> Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for
 JB> Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich
 JB> theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in
 JB> encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

 JB> In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own
 JB> climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the
 JB> Milankovich cycles, " must be qualified in two ways. First, they
 JB> apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and
 JB> not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of
 JB> fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends,
 JB> because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000
 JB> years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not
 JB> predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the
 JB> next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation
 JB> and cooler climate."

 JB> During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other
 JB> scientists began promoting the theory that greenhouse gasses such as
 JB> carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to
 JB> catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of
 JB> anthropogenic global warming (AGW) has gradually become accepted as
 JB> fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of
 JB> AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make
 JB> pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

 JB> The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW
 JB> theory is the famous hockey stick graph which was presented by Al
 JB> Gore in his 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth. The hockey stick graph
 JB> shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during
 JB> the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this
 JB> warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the
 JB> deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the
 JB> coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current
 JB> Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass
 JB> the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

 JB> The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on
 JB> evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while
 JB> ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which
 JB> is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from
 JB> paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible
 JB> explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the
 JB> natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

 JB> In 1999 the British journal Nature published the results of data
 JB> derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia s Vostok
 JB> station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data
 JB> includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2
 JB> and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from
 JB> 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present
 JB> time.

 JB> The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums
 JB> and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the
 JB> graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an
 JB> electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that
 JB> changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by
 JB> about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global
 JB> temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the
 JB> reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing
 JB> global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in
 JB> global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

 JB> The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the
 JB> global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more
 JB> CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their
 JB> carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our
 JB> carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent
 JB> them from loosing their fizz, which is a feature of their
 JB> carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a
 JB> result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer,
 JB> they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

 JB> Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the
 JB> changes in the earths temperature, we should expect to see global CO2
 JB> levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end
 JB> of the earths current Interglacial warm period. We should already be
 JB> eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels
 JB> begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the worlds
 JB> oceans.

 JB> The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels
 JB> regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of
 JB> Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty
 JB> thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years
 JB> global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at
 JB> approximately the same levels which they are at today.

 JB> About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global
 JB> temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we
 JB> are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial,
 JB> and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky,
 JB> we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return,
 JB> as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without
 JB> any influence from the effects of AGW.

 JB> The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously
 JB> narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the
 JB> big picture of long-term climate change. The data from
 JB> paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology,
 JB> paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of
 JB> entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and
 JB> lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While
 JB> concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming
 JB> continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world,
 JB> the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which
 JB> will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is
 JB> being foolishly ignored.

 JB> Gregory F. Fegel

 JB> --- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10
 JB>  * Origin:  (1:226/600)

                R\%/itt



--- Twit(t) Filter v2.1 (C) 2000
 * Origin: SATX Alamo Area Net * South * Texas, USA * (1:397/22)