Text 35081, 109 rader
Skriven 2009-08-18 00:33:02 av Grant Taylor (108533.fidonews)
  Kommentar till text 35059 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
Ärende: FidoNews 26:32 [02/05]: Rebuttals To Previous Articles
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  Re: FidoNews 26:32 [02/05]: Rebuttals To Previous Articles
  By: Michiel van der Vlist to Grant Taylor on Mon Aug 17 2009 11:23 pm

 > Hello Grant,

Hi Michiel,

 > Well, maybe not "here", but it certainly is there.... ;-)

"Here" as in already in use, not a physical location.

 > No. :-)

Well good for you.

I have a lot of clients that have an older printer that is doing just fine for
them that will not want to go out and buy a new printer (or even an external
print server) just so that it can speak IPv6.

 > What about it?

There is a lot of building automation in my area with the existing systems only
supporting IPv4.  It will be cost prohibitive to upgrade or replace the systems
just for IPv6 support when there is nothing wrong with the systems continuing
to use IPv4 for the next 5 - 15 years.  Granted these systems don't need
internet access.

 > Average lifetime of the electronics is less then five years. And I'd say
 > the possibility to easely connect to the internet when those devices are
 > IPv6 capable, is a strong incentive to upgrade.

For consumer electronics, probably.  For other non-consumer electronics,
hardly.

 > In fact I'd day demanding that new equipment that one expects to still be
 > in use in five years is IPv6 upgradable is a wise strategy.

For new equipment that's being purchased, I completely agree.

How many of the old programs / systems that were (are still) written in Cobol
that had to be patched for y2k will be updated to IPv6 just because it is the
current thing?  I doubt that very many (if any) will be augmented.  They can
simply continue doing what they are doing with their existing protocol.

 > My guestimate is that IPv4 will rapidly fade out after ten years. Why ten
 > years? Because ten years is the period that major players will provide
 > support. Take Windows 98 as an example. It is ten years old. Microsoft
 > stopped support a couple of years ago, but that does not mean everyone
 > threw it away. But now an increasing number of web sites does nor run
 > smoothly any more. The Dutch tax collector stopped support for Win98, which
 > means that businesses have no choice but to upgrade and private persons
 > need to go back to submitting their tax declaration on good old paper or
 > upgrade to at least WIN 2000. Something similar goes for the Dutch Bureau
 > of motor vehicle registrations.

I agree that IPv4 will rapidly fade out, but it is not going to go away.  Just
like BBSs / FidoNet has not gone away.

I have heard recent stories about governments running some things on older
systems still running NT 4.0.  Guess what, they are doing exactly what they
need to do, are isolated, and stable.  There is no reason to even think about
changing these systems to make them support IPv6.

 > When institutions like that no longer support it, it means it really is
 > time to upgrade and so I expect Win98 to be really dead within a year.

I agree that it may be time (or past time) to upgrade.  The fact remains that
there will still be people running the old systems / equpiment that is not /
will not run IPv6.

I will not be surprised if people are still running '98 5 years from now.
Remember that '98 went end of main line support in '03 and people are still
running it 5 years after that.

Just a few weeks ago I picked up a new client that was just now (then)
migrating away from Word Perfect 7.x for DOS running on Windows 98.

 > I expect something similar will happen to IPv4. It will co-exist with IPv6
 > for about a decade and then we will see home routers and other equipment
 > that no longer support it and that will mark the end of IPv4.

I think the IPv4 internet will co-exist for some of that time.  At some point
we will see a demise of the IPv4 internet like we have seen the demise of
FidoNet.  But like FidoNet, I don't think the IPv4 internet will completely go
away for a *LONG* time.  Even when the IPv4 intenet does finally dwindle to the
point that the IPv6 internetis starting from now, there will still be isolated
IPv4 networks.  Even those networks will be allowed to continue by IPv4 over
IPv6 tunnels.

 > After all, it requires effort to maintain dual stack, so it is unavoidable
 > that some day some manufacturer will drop IPv4 to reduce cost. And then it
 > will go fast.

How many good routers (more than cheap SOHO routes) still have IPX support?
(Yes IPX is a perfectly viable option as IPv6 is not a version change of IPv4
so much as it is a completely different protocol that has some roots and
similarity to IPv4.)

 > But he', don't listen to me, I am notoriously bad at predicting time lines.
 > In 1996 I predicted that FidoNet would be dead by the the real start of the
 > 21st century, Jan, 2001. Seems I was wrong... ;-)

;)



Grant. . . .
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