Text 35132, 143 rader
Skriven 2009-08-19 00:14:49 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Grant Taylor (108533.fidonews)
Ärende: FidoNews 26:32 [02/05]: Rebuttals To Previous Articles
==============================================================
Hello Grant,

On Tuesday August 18 2009 00:33, you wrote to me:

 GT> I have a lot of clients that have an older printer that is doing just
 GT> fine for them that will not want to go out and buy a new printer (or
 GT> even an external print server) just so that it can speak IPv6.

I can understand why they feel no need to replace that printer now. But will
that printer still be in use in five years? Or ten? And if it is replaced with
e new network printer would it not be wise to opt for one that can do IPv6 or
is at least prepared for it?

 >> Average lifetime of the electronics is less then five years. And
 >> I'd say the possibility to easely connect to the internet when
 >> those devices are IPv6 capable, is a strong incentive to upgrade.

 GT> For consumer electronics, probably.  For other non-consumer
 GT> electronics, hardly.

That depends. I have designed quit a lot of stuff for industrial automation and
things were going fast then. Well... it was some time ago...

 >> In fact I'd day demanding that new equipment that one expects to
 >> still be in use in five years is IPv6 upgradable is a wise
 >> strategy.

 GT> For new equipment that's being purchased, I completely agree.

Ok...

 GT> How many of the old programs / systems that were (are still) written
 GT> in Cobol that had to be patched for y2k will be updated to IPv6 just
 GT> because it is the current thing?

Frankly, I haven't seen a working Cobol based system in 30 years.


 >> My guestimate is that IPv4 will rapidly fade out after ten years.
 >> Why ten years? Because ten years is the period that major players
 >> will provide support. Take Windows 98 as an example. It is ten
 >> years old. Microsoft stopped support a couple of years ago, but
 >> that does not mean everyone threw it away. But now an increasing
 >> number of web sites does nor run smoothly any more. The Dutch tax
 >> collector stopped support for Win98, which means that businesses
 >> have no choice but to upgrade and private persons need to go back
 >> to submitting their tax declaration on good old paper or upgrade to
 >> at least WIN 2000. Something similar goes for the Dutch Bureau of
 >> motor vehicle registrations.

 GT> I agree that IPv4 will rapidly fade out, but it is not going to go
 GT> away.  Just like BBSs / FidoNet has not gone away.

FidoNet has not gone away yet, but it does not play a role of any significance
any more in the great scheme of things. It was once the largest amateur network
and the only global digital communication network available to private
individuals. Some 30.000 node, over half a million points and nobody knows how
many users. That is history, FidoNet is not gone, but it is a museum piece. I
expect IPv4 to go the same awy.

 GT> I have heard recent stories about governments running some things on
 GT> older systems still running NT 4.0.  Guess what, they are doing
 GT> exactly what they need to do, are isolated, and stable.  There is no
 GT> reason to even think about changing these systems to make them support
 GT> IPv6.

But there will be other reasons to replace them.

 >> When institutions like that no longer support it, it means it really is
 >> time to upgrade and so I expect Win98 to be really dead within a year.

 GT> I agree that it may be time (or past time) to upgrade.  The fact
 GT> remains that there will still be people running the old systems /
 GT> equpiment that is not / will not run IPv6.

My electronic door lock does not do IPv6 either. As a matter of fact, it does
not do IPv4 or any other network protocol. It is a stand alone application. So
there is indeed no need to replace it for the sake of IPv6. But sooner or later
it will need to be replaced anyway, if only becaue I no longer have a working
programmer that can program an 68702. Also I no longer have a magnetic card
writer. The card codes are hard coded into the EPROM. If the cards that I have
now wear out, I am stuck.

 GT> I will not be surprised if people are still running '98 5 years from
 GT> now. Remember that '98 went end of main line support in '03 and people
 GT> are still running it 5 years after that.

They are, but as I mentioned it is coming to a halt pretty soon now.

 GT> Just a few weeks ago I picked up a new client that was just now (then)
 GT> migrating away from Word Perfect 7.x for DOS running on Windows 98.

And you did not tell him to skip to at least XP?

 >> I expect something similar will happen to IPv4. It will co-exist
 >> with IPv6 for about a decade and then we will see home routers and
 >> other equipment that no longer support it and that will mark the
 >> end of IPv4.

 GT> I think the IPv4 internet will co-exist for some of that time.  At
 GT> some point we will see a demise of the IPv4 internet like we have seen
 GT> the demise of FidoNet.  But like FidoNet, I don't think the IPv4
 GT> internet will completely go away for a *LONG* time.

My expectations are different. FidoNet is still around, not because of the
superior technology (though in some aspects it IS superior to what is commonly
used on The Internet) but because it has become a social entity.

I do not see that happening to IPv4.

 GT> Even when the IPv4 intenet does finally dwindle to the point that the
 GT> IPv6 internetis starting from now, there will still be isolated IPv4
 GT> networks.  Even those networks will be allowed to continue by IPv4
 GT> over IPv6 tunnels.

I doubt they will. In ten years time, everything that connects to the InterNet
will be IPv6 capable. Simply because if it does not, it will be severely
limited. And when "every one and everything" has IPv6 there simply will be no
more reason to keep IPv4 around.

 >> After all, it requires effort to maintain dual stack, so it is
 >> unavoidable that some day some manufacturer will drop IPv4 to
 >> reduce cost. And then it will go fast.

 GT> How many good routers (more than cheap SOHO routes) still have IPX
 GT> support?

Ah, good old IPX. Yes, I remember that. I was the system operator for the
Novell 3.11 network at the company I last worked for. But that is ages ago...

 GT> (Yes IPX is a perfectly viable option as IPv6 is not a version change
 GT> of IPv4 so much as it is a completely different protocol that has some
 GT> roots and similarity to IPv4.)

I have no idea how many routers still support IPX. I have never actually seen
one. The last network I saw that used IPX, was a coax LAN with ten work
stations. No hubs, mo routers just a string of coax terminates at end.


Cheers, Michiel

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