Text 1635, 90 rader
Skriven 2009-12-11 17:04:18 av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
   Kommentar till text 1623 av Ward Dossche (2:292/854)
Ärende: Smallpox 2002
=====================
Ward Dossche wrote to Robert Bashe on Friday December 11 2009 at 11:33:

RB>> It's not quite as clearcut as that. Another reason for keeping the
RB>> virus is for virus research purposes, and in case there should be a
RB>> source of smallpox in the world that just hasn't surfaced yet, but
RB>> may in the future.

WD> Smallpox and its variations are well described.

Probably. I'm no expert on virology. Nor are you.

WD> Keeping the virus for medical research only makes sense in ongoing
WD> mass-scale innoculations.

Again, I'm no expert. But I do know that research sometimes requires the use of
things most people would consider dangerous. It might surprise you to know that
there are also stocks of things like Ebola and Marburg in existence.

WD> When I was still little smallpox-innoculation was mandatory...

They were normal until I was in my 30s, and I was vaccinated several times
during the period. Both my father and mother had scars on their arms from
smallpox vaccinations in the days when the vaccination was a bit more
"thorough" than during my lifetime.

WD> There were stocks of these materials ... there are none now ...

You are making assumptions. And providing a reason for keeping the smallpox
virus at the same time: how do you test a vaccine without the agent you're
trying to fight? For that matter, how do you identify a smallpox outbreak
without having the virus to compare?

WD> And the fact that WHO doesn't take preventive measures anymore says
WD> enough.

It says that no _known_ cases of smallpox have been reported.

WD> There isn't something like a smallpox virus which can lurking in the
WD> wild. There isn't, that is scientific fact.

You assume and hope, as I do. The only problem is that the world is big, and
not all of it has been explored even today. Like to tell me where Ebola comes
from and what the vector (carrier) is? Those are unknown to this day.

WD> So why would the US and Russia need to keep live virusses? For
WD> research? And risk a pandemic outbreak again while we're not prepared
WD> at all?

The places the viruses are kept are isolated, and even if that were not the
case, a local outbreak of a severe disease would be stopped in its tracks by
isolation. There was such an outbreak once near a Russian facility, from what
one hears cause by a brief change of filters in the exhaust air flow. There
were deaths, but the disease spread no further than the local level.

As for the need to keep the virus for research purposes - well, just consider
what else besides smallpox is stored in various facilities. Among other things
the Spanish flu. Smallpox is only an example of what still exists in labs, and
granted is dangerous, but certainly not the most dangerous thing around.

WD> Aw c'mon ... biological warfare is the answer, you know that.

That certainly may be one of the reasons, but I doubt that it's the only one.
The fact that there are stocks of dangerous bacteria and viruses is not unknown
to WHO, and there are arguments both for and against that have nothing to do
with their use as weapons.

WD> During my military we were trained in that and it's not something I
WD> ever want to see happening.

Oh, we did once already: the anthrax scare inb the States. And even that was a
really small-scale thing with an agent that is non-infectious except by direct
contact. No telling what would happen with a really infectious, deadly agent,
but it wouldn't be pretty.

The only problem is that there's no real defence against something like that.
Destroy all the smallpox stocks: sure, and then there are only several hundred
other options for a determined terrorist to try out.

Read "The Cobra Event": it was written by someone who knows about the subject
and is only partly fiction. Bill Clinton took it very seriously, but in the end
apparently decided that there was no practical way to deter a determined
terrorist with a biological weapon. And the unfortunate thing is that
terrorists don't necessarily have to be intellectually stupid people: they can
be gifted chemists, biologists and physicists. That's the scary thing about the
whole subject.

Cheers, Bob

--- GoldED+/W32 1.1.5-0613
 * Origin: Jabberwocky System - 02363-56073 ISDN/V34 (2:2448/44)