Text 23283, 80 rader
Skriven 2011-12-05 14:42:33 av Roy Witt (1:387/22)
  Kommentar till text 23278 av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: See what I mean...
==========================
04 Dec 11 07:16, Robert Bashe wrote to Roy Witt:

 RB> Roy Witt wrote to Robert Bashe on Saturday December 03 2011 at 12:33:

 RW>> What's the deal with the Euro? Is it gonna go the way of the dodo
 RW>> bird or what? I see that, as I predicted years ago, the EU may lose
 RW>> a couple or three of it's members over the EU economic problems.

 RB> Nobody really knows what's going to happen, Roy.

As you probably remember, I subscribe to Deutsche Welle and I'm reading
about all of this happening there. It's scary at times since Wall Street
stock values rise and fall at any news of the Euro in decline.

 RB> There's a lot of speculation around, about issuing "Eurobonds" (with
 RB> the entire Euro zone guaranteeing them, not just one country) - which
 RB> the Germans don't want because that would increase their borrowing
 RB> cost and reduce the pressure on the high-debt countries to institute
 RB> reforms. Not to mention the fact that the EU treaties would have to
 RB> be changed to allow this.

On the other hand, the EU could expel those high-debt countries and let
them fend for themselves until they go under.

 RB> There's also talk about the ECB (European Central Bank) in Frankfurt
 RB> simply buying up all national bonds without any limit (yes, even
 RB> Greek, Portuguese and Irish ones) to prop up the prices and let those
 RB> countries stay solvent. But this would violate the ECB statutes, and
 RB> is violently opposed by both the ECB, the German government and the
 RB> German federal bank. One further reason is that this would probably
 RB> push inflation up to high levels (I've read about 6% in Germany),
 RB> again burdening the German economy with such a bailout and again
 RB> reducing the pressure on the debtor states to reform their systems.
 RB> And of course it's politically unacceptable in Germany, where the
 RB> political situation (the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition) is fragile at
 RB> best.

I think this is a good assessment.

 RB> Then there's the option of some Eurozone countries withdrawing and
 RB> re-introducing their old currencies - which would have to be
 RB> voluntary according to the current statutes, and might be worse for
 RB> the countries involved - and most certainly for the Euro - than
 RB> somehow keeping them in. People are worried - and as we have seen,
 RB> not without justification - about the "domino effect" that would have
 RB> on other Eurozone countries such as Spain and Italy, and possibly
 RB> even France.

I thought that France was about as stable as Germany...I guess not.

 RB> Then there's the suggestion that Germany could leave the Eurozone and
 RB> introduce the "new" DM. The problem there is that the new DM would
 RB> presumably appreciate so fast, so much that German export industries
 RB> - the backbone of the economy - would probably go down the tube, with
 RB> a major recession in Germany as a result. Then who pays the bills?

Germany, with the 'new' DM...

 RB> And of course, that would be the end of the Euro and probably of the
 RB> EU as well. The same problems crop up if the Germans and French would
 RB> get together to form a "new", strong Euro and leave the rest to the
 RB> old, weak one.

 RB> These are only the main ideas being traded around at the moment. But
 RB> as I mentioned above, nobody really knows what's going to happen and
 RB> it's making a lot of people here and elsewhere very nervous.

It's making some Belgians so nervous, they're seeking dual citizenship
with Luxumberg. That is, if they can prove that they have at least one
living or one ancestoral relative born in that country. The way the talked
about it was as though there is no future for Belgium.


                R\%/itt


  ,,,By the time you find greener pastures, you can't climb the fence!

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