Text 27620, 149 rader
Skriven 2012-04-04 16:42:32 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: Soldiers going home ... copied from a Facebook post ...
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Hello Robert,

On Saturday March 31 2012 16:23, you wrote to me:

 RB>>> Unfortunately, Israel has good reason to feel threatened - having
 RB>>> been militarily attacked multiple times since 1947 - and thus has
 RB>>> more justification for masive defence

Since when are nucelar weapons /defensive/ weapons?

 RB>>> than some of the others.

 MV>> With the result that in turn they threaten others. Such as Iran
 MV>> that is now surrounded by nuclear powers.

 RB> It is?.

Let's say that I can see why they perceive it that way.

 RB> The only close one I can think of is Russia,

Then look a bit further. "Close" would be "within deliver range". That certainy
is more than 200 km.

 RB> Iran is only surrounded by countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria,
 RB> Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, which are certainly not
 RB> nuclear powers.

Iraq and Afghanistan are occupied by NATO powers. NATO is a nuclear power.
Turkey is a NATO member, NATO is a nuclear power and has bases in Turke. so
Iran would consider Turkey a nuclear power.

 RB>  I suppose you could count Pakistan, but it's pretty far away.

No far away enough. Would YOU feel comfortable within 1000 km of a possibly
hostile nuclear power? In the east there is also India not all that far away.

 RB> Otherwise the only (putative) nuclear power is Israel,

You can leave out the "putative". Even if they do not actually have nuclear
weapons, the idee that they may have them is enough to fear.

 RB> and they don't have a habit of attacking anyone without any reason

No one has a habit of attacking without reason. There is always a reason. I
that reason is good enough is something that parties seldom agree on.

 RB> (but are not above a pre-emptive strike),

Exactly! Israel has attacked Iran several times. And for what reason?
When was the last time Iran attacked Israel?

 RB>  much less with atomic weapons.

The only nation ever having used a nuclear weapon against an enemy is the US.
According to your reasoning we need only fear the US. Certainly not Iran, THEY
sure do not have a habit of attacking anyone with nuclear weapens without a
reason.

 RB> However, if the state of Israel were in true danger of being
 RB> eliminated - as Ahmadinejad keeps demanding,

So you say. But look a bit closer. What he said was that the present government
of Israel has to go. He never said Israel has to be annihilated. That is an
error of translation.

 RB> up to now without the wherewithal to back up the rhetoric

So we agree that it is just rhetoric.

 RB>  - I could imagine Israel resorting to extreme measures to defend its
 RB> existence.

And Iran is denied that right, despite the threats and sabre rattling of
Netanyahu?

 RB> Presumably any country threatened in its existence by a virulently
 RB> unfriendly neighbor would think and act similarly.

Which is exactly why I can understand why Iran may want the bomb.

And it is not just Israel that is a threat. There is also the USAian
omnipresence in the region. There ar US military vessels all over the water.
Plus basis al over the Arabic peninsula. No doubt with enough range and
firepower to blow Iran to smithereens.

Don't you think that when the US invaded Iraq and Pakistan, Iran would have
asked: "will we be next?"

OF COURSE Iran feels threatened. If you can not see that, you display your
usual inability to see how things look from from the other side of the fence.

 MV>> No wonder Iran feels threatened and wants something to neutralize
 MV>> that threat.

 RB> Do you really think so?

Yes I do!!

 RB> It looks more like sabre rattling to me, but could turn dangerious
 RB> with the religious extremism and someone like Ahmadinejad heading the
 RB> government. If I were an Israeli, I think I'd be pretty scared of
 RB> someone like that getting nuclear capacity, too.

Then for once - just for once - try to imagine how it looks from the other
side. Instead of imagining how it is to be an Israeli, try to imagine how it is
to be an Iranian. If I were an Iranian I'd be pretty scared of someone like
that war monger Nethanyahu, who ALREADY HAS the bomb. Who already has attacked
several times and who has the unconditional support of an even mightier nuclear
power: the US. It sure would scare the hell out of me.

 RB> Remember, Israel is closer than Europe to the center of all this and
 RB> has a great deal more to lose than mere economic benefits if things
 RB> really get hot.

That goes for Iran too.

 RB> My experience with (one) Iranian, during training at Henkel, was that
 RB> he was a charming person, but you couldn't believe a word he said.
 RB> Iranians are born negotiators, as we've seen in past years.

How does that differ from the Jews?

 RB> It's anyone's guess what the Iranians are really doing at the moment,
 RB> but as Saddam Hussein learned to his cost, playing brinksmanship can
 RB> get you into terrible trouble if people start to believe you.

Believe what? That there were WMD's in Iraq. Well, I sure did not believe it.

 RB>  And I don't mean only the Americans.

On the risk of being accused of USA bashing... The USAians were the only ones
who believed it...

 RB> There are plenty of middle eastern countries that are not
 RB> enthusiastic about a nuclear Iran, first and foremost Saudi Arabia.

No one is "enthusiastic" about a nuclear power in their back yard. But I'd be
mode worried about a neighbour that actually HAS them, or that has powerful
allies that has them, than about A US instigated rumour of Iran just being a
potential nuclear power.

Having said that: It is hypocritical to deny others what one considers
indispensable for oneself.

Cheers, Michiel

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