Text 4294, 75 rader
Skriven 2010-02-01 17:09:31 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av WAYNE CHIRNSIDE (1:123/140)
Ärende: a world without oil
===========================
Hello WAYNE,

On Sunday January 31 2010 11:36, you wrote to me:

 MVV>> In the seventees I worked as a scientist at Utrecht Universtity
 MVV>> in the department dedicated to the study of alternative energy
 MVV>> sources. Our groups was not the only one, there were hundreds of
 MVV>> such groups of scientists all over the world. That was 35 years
 MVV>> ago. We are still burning oil...

 WC> Things have advanced quite a bit since the 70's.

There have been no real breakthroughs. We are still burning oil.

 WC> Personally I like a hydrogen based energy future

Gydrogen is not a prime energy source. It is just a carrier. Producing hydrogen
takes at least as much energy as you will get when you burn it.

 WC> On the other hand hydrogen right now can be cheaper to run your car
 WC> off of than gasolene if you electrolysed and compressed it at home

I doubt that.

 WC> The problems with that is it just transfers the burden of the
 WC> production of energy to fuel your vehicle elsewhere and by itself
 WC> accomplishes little.

Exactly. Hydrogen is just the carrier. You will need a prime energy source
anyway.

 WC> Physicists are now getting somewhat optimistic about fusion power
 WC> being realized soon though they've been saying that for 50 years now.

Indeed, they have been saying that for 50 years and thet are still nowhere near
any practical application.

 WC> In my opinion it's the economic interests of the big oil companies
 WC> that is holding back scaling alternatives up to where they are
 WC> commercially viable.

Not all of them are that short sighted. Here a lot is invested in windmill
parks. By the incumbents...

 WC>> Oil is a dead end in 75 - 100 years anyway as that resource is
 WC>> finite.

 MVV>> Make that 30 years.

 WC> Economically speaking given the costs of extracting it as oil runs low
 WC> I'd say your estimate falls within my projected range towards the
 WC> lower end.

Some of the more pessimistic analysts predict that the problems will start in
less than 10 years.


 MVV>> That is good, but the task at hand is too big to be accomplished
 MVV>> in four or even eight years.

 WC> Again, I agree with you however it will never happen unless we
 WC> _start_. Germany appears to be on track to meeting its goal of 20
 WC> percent of its electric power from solar by 2020.

I have solar cells on my roof. http://www.vlist.eu/fotos/zonnecellen.jpg

A nice toy. It will take at least 15 years to earn back the investment. WITH
government subsidy. I only got them because I worked in the field and wanted to
retain some ties with the past. Sentiment.


Cheers, Michiel

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