Text 598, 95 rader
Skriven 2009-10-17 11:01:57 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: The Euro
================
Hello Robert,

On Thursday October 15 2009 08:43, you wrote to me:

 RB>>> The sun never set on the British Empire, but it most certainly
 RB>>> did on the British Isles. That's the big difference. The UK can't
 RB>>> exist on the basis of it's home market alone, any more than
 RB>>> Germany can. In a pinch, the USA could.

 RB> [...]

 MV>> The US can not run as a self sufficient economy. No way Jose.

 RB> I _did_ write "in a pinch". Not "with ease" or the like.

Indeed you did, but you forgot to explain to this non-native speaker what
exactly you meant by that. If you meant going back to the time without
motorised transport - in effect - rolling back history some 150 years, you may
be right.

 RB> And you aren't first - or presumably the last - to underestimate the
 RB> USA. That's been done quite a number of times over time.

The problem is not me underestimating the USA, the problem is the USA
systematically _overrating_ itself. And she won't learn from mistakes made in
the past.

 MV>> Nevertheless, in the early seventiees when I discussed it with
 MV>> them thet were 100% confident that the South African economy would
 MV>> never collapse. We have gold, we have diamonds, we have coal, they
 MV>> would say. In short we are invincible they would say. Well, look
 MV>> at them now, less than half a century later...

 RB> With a black government that makes the impression of being as
 RB> "capable" as other black governments in Africa... no problem ruining
 RB> an economy that way.

When I talked to them in the seventees and pointed out that white government in
a country with a black majority might not be for eternity, they said it would
never change. With the same confidence that you keep saying it will never
happen to the USA.

Well.. the US already has a black government.

And of course you will say: that's different.

 RB> But on the other hand, what does that have to do with the statement
 RB> that it was "once" the largest economy on the African continent. Isn't
 RB> it anymore? And if not, who leads now? Even with the mismanagement and
 RB> corruption of the present government, I would have thought it
 RB> impossible to destroy the economic heritage of the European era so
 RB> quickly.

Look at the country that once was called Southern Rhodesia...

 MV>> What you do not seem to realise is that the USA is in the same
 MV>> position. The homeland is bigger, but is is NOT self sufficient.

 RB> "Bigger" is a gross understatement,

Is it? Maybe in land surface. But in population? Count the beans...

 RB> and again, you make the mistake of assuming something is not possible
 RB> merely because it would involve (possibly radical) change. Why should
 RB> _any_ country be self-sufficient in a free-trade world?

It was you who claimed the US economy could run on the homeland alone. Contrary
to the UK You claimed "it is different"

 MV>> It does not take a degree in high economics, just a matter of
 MV>> counting beans.

 RB> Indeed. And of discarding cherished preconceptions and thinking
 RB> outside the present situation.

The USA has been overspending for decades. And the US national debt is still
growing. You say she is still the largest economy in the world. But ask
yourself what that economy is based on? What assets does the US have that she
can use to pay off her debts? If you count the beans, all that she really has
is a very impressive military power.

 RB> Please note: I have never assumed self-sufficiency in the USA under
 RB> conditions totally unchanged from those at present, which appears to
 RB> be the basis for your denial of that possibility.

Neither do I What I foresee a scenario where the bubble of printing Dollars to
finance the ever growing US national debt will collapse and the US will be
_forced_ into self sufficiency, because they have nothing to sell and no one
will take their Dollars any more.


Cheers, Michiel

--- GoldED+/W32-MINGW 1.1.5-b20070503
 * Origin: http://www.vlist.org (2:280/5555)