Text 7500, 90 rader
Skriven 2010-05-03 10:26:57 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: Extremism with the best will in the world
=================================================
Hello Robert,

On Saturday May 01 2010 08:51, you wrote to me:

 RB>>> And in a few years, cigarettes will only be available from
 RB>>> "dealers", like marijuana today - naturally at astronomical
 RB>>> prices.

I do not think that we will see that happen, but if it does, I would not really
care. Firstly, there is a limit to the number of things I can get exicted
about. I stopped smoking almost fifteen years ago and I have no intention of
ever starting again. So it does not affect me. Even more, if an astronomical
price raise helps me restist the temptation, that is fine with me.

 MV>> If that happened would you really care?

 RB> Only in the same way as I care about drug dealing and the accompanying
 RB> criminal activities now. I certainly wouldn't find the development
 RB> positive, and still think that legalization and sale of recreational
 RB> drugs, including appropriate taxation, would be the best way to fight
 RB> the criminal problems.

Here I fully agree.

 RB> Still, that's an illusion: it won't happen, and the drug wars will
 RB> continue indefinitely.

On this I must also agree. The moralists amnong us will not give up that
easily.

OTOH, I do not think we will see a total ban on tobacco in the foreseeable
future. The reason is that the anti-smoking campaigns are succesful! It took
over half a century, but now smoking is on the way out.

 RB>>> The black marketeers and various mafias are probably looking
 RB>>> forward to this developmen.

 MV>> That assumes a continued demand. An assumption that may be false.

 RB> ;-) That's what the prohibitionists in the States thought in 1930 too.

As I pointed out times have changed. The public attitude towards tobacco has
radically changed over the last decade.

 MV>> Hard to say. But the times HAVE changed and extreme measures like
 MV>> the above may very well be the last blow for the smoking industry.

 RB> "Smoking industry"? Maybe for the big cigarette manufacturers, but
 RB> certainly not for tobacco growers.

For them too. If there is no demand, there is no market. Black or white.

 RB> And of course, there also the "lure of the forbidden" to consider.

That is why it would be unwise to put tobacco in the same class as heroine. I
hope the powers that be, will see that too.

 RB> Public cigarette smoking may be on the way out, but I figure private
 RB> use will continue, one way or another, legal or illegal, like in the
 RB> case of other drugs, legal and otherwise.

Maybe. Maybe not. But then it will be a niche market and the vast majority of
tobacco growers will have to find another job. One way or another.

That already happened in the area some twenty km east of here. Until thirty
yeqrs ago there was a large tobacco industry along the river Rhine in the area
between Amerongen and the German border. http://www.tabaksteeltmuseum.nl/

That is all gone. Demand dropped and the tobocco growers switched to other
things. That happens when you let the market do its job.

 RB> One thing that does bother me, though: what will people next decide is
 RB> harmful and ban? Refined sugar, saturated fats (butter)... both have
 RB> detrimental effects on health. Why not ban them too? And of course
 RB> there are other things as well...

 RB> Once you start down this kind of road, there's no telling where it
 RB> will end.

I don't know. I am getting a bit tired of all these zigzag warnings. Five years
ago eggs were almost poisoneous, now an egg a day is all right again. If you
take everything serious, there is nothing left to eat. And I do not want to
spend the rest of my life worrying about what to eat and what not. So I avoid
what I know to be very bad, but do not worry too much about the rest...


Cheers, Michiel

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