Text 10419, 87 rader
Skriven 2013-09-24 20:30:10 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Janis Kracht (1:261/38)
Ärende: IPv6 and IPv4
=====================
Hello Janis,

On Tuesday September 24 2013 11:00, you wrote to me:

 >> What is already happening with the mobile providers here, and what
 >> will probably happen in Northern America next year when ARIN
 >> depletes its IPv4 stock, is that you will no longer get a unique
 >> globally routeable IPv4 address but an address in the range 10.*.*.*
 >> instead. I reported this in the IPv6 echo some time ago.

I also wrote something about it in Fidonews. I will repost the article in a
separate message.

 >> Of course the ISP won't give you access to the port forwarding tables
 >> in their NAT, so you can't run a server on IPv4.

 JK> With our commercial account (yes, we pay good $$ for it) I don't see
 JK> that happening.

If you pay for it, your globally unique IPv4 address may probably be safe for
at least another decade or so. If you are willing to pay the price. A price
that will doubtlessly go up. Are you willing to pay $50 a month? Rumour has it
that in parts of Asia that is the going rate...

 JK> AFAIK IPv4 will still work, just like IPv6 has worked for a while now.
 JK> It's just that more people are going to switch to using IPv6.  That's
 JK> my understanding of things at least.  In the future (soon, or
 JK> sometime, who knows) it is inevitable that some sites will only
 JK> support IPv6.

My understanding is that it is already happening in parts of Asia.

 JK>  Connectivity with such sites will require IPv6 at that time, as I
 JK> understand it.

Right. And so my prediction, that between now and five years we may see the
first Fidonet IPv6 only node, that prediction stands. It will probably not be
in Northern America. Probably in Australia or New Zealand. There internet
registry APNIC, ran out in April 2011.

 >>> We have had IPv6 over here for several years (and in the two
 >>> different parts of NY State where I've lived),  IPv4 is also
 >>> offered (one way or another).

 >> The devil is in the "another". If it is through Carrier Grade NAT,
 >> you can forget about running servers on IPv4.

 JK> The way it's done here is to assign both IPv4 and IPv6.

For now. But it won't last. ARIN is expected to run out late 2014 or early
2015.

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

After that ISPs will have to make do with what they have in stock. Not too long
after that there will be no more IPv4 adresses available for new customers.

 >>> I could switch to IPv6 tomorrow if I wanted to, in other words.

 >> So why don't you?

 JK> Look at the nodelist.  Maybe 6 nodes support IPv6?  I don't remember
 JK> offhand, but it's not huge <g>

The nodelist won't tell. Kees did a survey earlier this year, IIRC he found 6.

But someone has to be first. And mind you, if you do not have IPv6, you will
not be able to connect to those IPv6 only nodes that will come sooner or later.

 JK> The "Internet Society" posted a FAQ, saying:

 JK> " IPv6 and its transition mechanisms have been designed for a long
 JK> period of co-existence with IPv4 and it is expected that IPv4-only
 JK> systems and applications will survive for many years. However,
 JK> IPv6-only systems are expected to arise and many of these users are
 JK> likely to be in emerging business markets and developing countries."
 JK> http://www.internetsociety.org

Sums it up quite well, but thinking that it will not affect you because you are
not in that area but in the US is false logic. You won't be able to connect to
the emerging IPv6 only part of the internet if you do not have IPv6 yourself.


Cheers, Michiel

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