Text 10430, 93 rader
Skriven 2013-09-25 00:37:50 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Janis Kracht (1:261/38)
Ärende: IPv6 and IPv4
=====================
Hello Janis,

On Tuesday September 24 2013 16:25, you wrote to me:

 >> I also wrote something about it in Fidonews. I will repost the
 >> article in a separate message.

 JK> Old news <g> Really old news as a matter of fact.

But still valid.

 >> If you pay for it, your globally unique IPv4 address may probably be
 >> safe for at least another decade or so.

 JK> I expect it will.

A lot can change in ten years...

 >> If you are willing to pay the price. A price that will doubtlessly go
 >> up. Are you willing to pay $50 a month? Rumour has it that in parts of
 >> Asia that is the going rate...

 JK> Lol.. not here, Michiel.

"Here" has become a bit of a fuzzy connotation in the world of the Internet.
The market for IP{v4 addresses is a global market. If the price in Asia goes
up, so will the price in the US.

 JK>   Meanwhile, prices have gone DOWN here in the U.S., NOT up.  Costs
 JK> for our commercial account have dropped about $25.00 a month with our
 JK> move from Windsor NY to the Ithaca NY area.

The overall price for the connection may have dropped, but that does not mean
the price of an IPv4 address has dropped by the same amount. I expect the price
for an IPv4 address to rise when they get scarse. To go down again when IPv6
becomes widespread and nobody needs it any more.

 JK> I expect some ISPs may be charging a fee like $50/mo. for NEW accounts
 JK> wanting an IPv4 address _in Asia_, not here.

It is a golbal market. Prices in Asia will affect prices in the rest of the
world...

 >> My understanding is that it is already happening in parts of Asia.

 JK> No kidding.  They have a lot of people coming online.  Think of all
 JK> those phones.. and I expect they are generally using IPv6.

 JK> Fidonet though has lost connections with Zone 6, remember?

Zone 3 is still there and Australia and the Pacific are served by the same RIR:
APNIC. The one that run out of IPv4 in April 2011. David Drummond has a
10.*.*.* address...

 JK>   A shame I still say.

Yes, but what is done is done and we have to move on.

 >> For now. But it won't last. ARIN is expected to run out late 2014 or
 >> early 2015.

 >> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

 JK> True, one projection.. there may be others.

There are are others. Lagerholm and Anderson come to mind. But they all agree
that it will be a matter of years, not decades.

 JK>  That doesn't mean existing IPv4 addressing will disappear.

In the end they will, just like IPX and Token Ring have faded out. When the
whole internet is reacheable by IPv6, maintaining IPv4 support will become a
burden and vendors will start to drop it. But that's still far ahead.

Yes, IPv4 will be around for some time to come. And exiting IPv4 addresses
won't disappear. But they may be reassigned and if they will still be available
for end users at an affordable price is an open question.

 >>> http://www.internetsociety.org

 >> Sums it up quite well, but thinking that it will not affect you
 >> because you ar not in that area but in the US is false logic. You
 >> won't be able to connect to the emerging IPv6 only part of the
 >> internet if you do not have IPv6 yourself.

 JK> When it happens, I'll be ready... how about you?

I am ready.

Cheers, Michiel

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