Text 2727, 39 rader
Skriven 2008-04-01 23:17:46 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
   Kommentar till text 2691 av Richard Webb (1:116/901.0)
Ärende: MO
==========
Hello Richard,

On Tuesday April 01 2008 16:37, you wrote to me:

 MvdV>> There was one system that claimed to have over 800 points, but I
 MvdV>> suspect that sysop used some creative book keeping.

 RW> SOunds like he did from my pov as well.

All the more while he refused to send udates for five years, claiming there had
been no changes.

Which is a statistical impossibility if only for thr fact that people do not
live forever. A conservative estimates assumes an average age of 80 and an
equal spread of ages. So every year on average 10 of those 800 can be expected
to die each year, 50 in five years.

So each of thsoe 800 people had a chance of 50/800 to die in that five years or
an chance of 750/800 to stiil be alive at the end of the five year period. The
chance that all 800 people are still alive at the end of five years is
therefore (750/800) exp 800 = 3.7 x 10 exp -23.


 MvdV>> What was not unusual for systems with many points and users is
 MvdV>> that they had more than one line and listed ony one. That way
 MvdV>> they only had to observe ZMH for the nodelisted line.

 RW> NEver had a problem with that.  My points were all well behaved in the
 RW> observance of zmh.

It wasn't the points that were the problem but the users. Some wanted to access
the BBS in the wee hours of the night and did not accpet that the BBS closed
down for some obscure reason.


Cheers, Michiel

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