Text 16643, 65 rader
Skriven 2026-04-01 00:19:02 av Sean Dennis (1:18/200)
Ärende: 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
====================================
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026 is 6.33 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

             Apr 01       Apr 02       Apr 03
00-03UT       3.00         4.33         3.67     
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    4.00         3.33     
06-09UT       6.33 (G2)    3.33         3.00     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         3.00     
12-15UT       4.33         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       4.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00     
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    4.33         3.33     
21-00UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67     

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are likely with a
chance for isolated G3 (Strong) storm levels possible 01 Apr due to
effects from the CME associated with 30 Mar X1.4 major flare event.
Active to G1 (Minor) levels are anticipated to continue into 02 Apr as
CME effects wane alongside the forecasted onset of CH HSS activity which
is likely to cause unsettled to active levels on 03 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

              Apr 01  Apr 02  Apr 03
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 03 Apr
due to the X1.4 flare at 30/0319 UTC and anticipated arrival of its
associated CME alongside the complexity and evolution of the active
regions currently on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

              Apr 01        Apr 02        Apr 03
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach Minor-Moderate (R1-R2)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 03
Apr due to the complexity and evolution of the active regions currently
on the solar disk.


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