Text 257, 79 rader
Skriven 2006-09-25 17:36:00 av BOB KLAHN (1:123/140)
Ärende: The bad news is...
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 Well, we see the president of Pakistan is claiming he supported
 the US in the war on terror because of threats from the US. He
 claims Powell threatened him with "If you're not with us, you're
 against us."

 He also claims Armitage threatened the General in charge of
 Pakistani Intel with either join us or get bombed back to the
 stone age.

 Armitage denies this, Powell hasn't said anything I've seen yet.

 So, the questions are:
 1: Who do you believe?
 2: Why is he saying this?

 On a scale of 1 to 100 Armitage would have gotten 98 points or
 more a few months ago. However, since he trashed his own
 crediblity with the Wilson/Plame/Novak issue, to the point where
 even Novak turned on him, he has between zip and zero
 credibililty.

 However, I still believe Armitage for two reasons.

 One:

 Musharraf is making his claims in terms too deritive of US
 history. The "with us or against us" line was Bush's after 9-11.
 That Powell would use just those words seems unlikely, but it
 does look like something Musharraf would use to his audience,
 the Pakistani people, and who would be much more likely to
 believe them just because they are Bush's words. And the 'bombed
 back to the stone age" is from Barry Goldwater and the Vietnam
 war. Which Musharraf would be pretty likely to know of. Even
 Armitage would not be likely to be that blunt.

 Two:

 The second reason I believe Armitage is the far more important
 reason from the American point of view. The Pakistani military
 just fought a campaign in their Northern provinces, to root out
 the Taliban. They got their asses kicked. Musharraf is not all
 that popular to begin with, and Pakistani Intel worked closely
 with the Taliban. There is even strong indications that they
 never stopped.

 This leads to the possibility that Musharraf is inventing these
 stories to deflect from his govenment. If he fears he may soon
 fall from power, he may be trying desperately to save himself.

 That is important from the US point of view because it's a very
 risky proposition. Joining with the US against Al Qaeda and the
 Taliban might pass with the masses, if he could claim that
 Taliban and Al Qaeda just went too far and have to take their
 punishment. Caving into the US makes him look weak. In a country
 where a strong arm is the greatest qualification for leadership,
 and concern for human rights is a disqualification, that's not
 good.

 What makes this risky is that Pakistan is a nuclear power. If
 Pakistan falls, the Taliban, or their Pakistani soul brothers,
 will have nuclear weapons.

 Here the Bush administration lies really do bite us in the ass.
 The BS that Saddam might give WMds to terrorists was so stupid
 as to be ludicris. That Pakistan might let it happen is a very
 real risk. After all, Pakistan was the nuclear supermarket of
 the third world before 9-11. And the man in charge was pardoned
 by Musharraf.

 We truly are not safer, and we may be entering a time of extreme
 danger.


BOB KLAHN bob.klahn@sev.org   http://home.toltbbs.com/bobklahn

... There are so many things I have left unsaid, so many things left undone.
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