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Ärende: Apple Death Knell Counter
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From: /m <mike@barkto.com>


http://www.macobserver.com/appledeathknell/index.shtml

===
Apple Death Knell Counter - Apple Has Been Declared Dead 51 Times Since April,
1995


The Apple Death Knell Counter (ADKC) is a collection of death pronouncements
for Apple throughout the years. Issued by journalists, analysts, pundits,
business executives, and the like, there have been innumerable "Apple is dead,"
"Apple will soon be dead," and "Apple is dead if they don't do this or that"
statements issued by all sorts of people who have been proven time and again to
be wrong. The purpose of the Death Knell Counter is to collect these statements
for posterity's sake, so that as Apple continues to thrive and prosper, we can
remember them. Below, you will find a list of updates, followed by our original
posting, including our rules for inclusion in the Counter, and then the Death
Knells themselves.


New entries have the "New!" sign in front of them.

New! - [5/1/2006 - Update: Writing for MacNewsWorld, Rob Enderle makes a
record-breaking prediction of death for the Mac platform (no one has been wrong
more often than Mr. Enderle -- Congrats!), this time suggesting that Apple will
voluntarily exit the computer business if it can't double market share by 2008.
He offers no support for this hypothesis, and we didn't even bother to rebut
it.]

It happens every few weeks: Someone new jumps on the bandwagon loudly
proclaiming that Apple will soon be dead. It's been happening since the early
1980s, and still Apple, and its doom sayers, keep chugging along. We decided
that it would be interesting to collect these stories, prognostications,
predictions, and premature eulogies in a sort of testimonial of buffoonery, and
we are calling it The Apple Death Knell Counter.

We shall keep a running total of the number of times that Apple has been
declared dead or dying, with links to each one (whenever possible), the date it
was published, and the person who so blithely set upon the path of being
utterly wrong. With luck, we'll eventually get back to the primordial Death
Knell, whose peals have rung on long past their normal life spans.

Our Criteria:
We are looking for published predictions and statements of Apple's demise from
pundits, journalists, analysts, and editorialists. These statements can be in
the form of quotes, especially from analysts, or entire pieces dedicated to
Apple's imminent death. Pieces where the author wishes, encourages, or hopes
that Apple would change some aspect of its business are not eligible for
listing, but pieces saying that Apple will shut its doors unless it changes
some aspect of its business probably will be included. For instance: "Apple
needs to move to x86 in order to increase market share," would not be a
statement of doom. "Apple will be having a fire sale on office furniture to pay
its bills in 6 months unless it makes the move to Intel now," is an outright
prediction of death.
Articles where Apple is referred to as "beleaguered" are not necessarily
eligible, and in fact, the vast majority of such references are simply
colorfully negative descriptions that do not qualify as an Apple Death Knell.
We'll make the decision on what is included in the list on a case by case
basis, and the criteria may be refined as we go.

We ask you to send us information on any new, or old, death predictions, be it
a link, or a scan from an old magazine, or other information. We'll then add it
to the counter, duly noted in chronological order, on this page. We will also
be adding a Hall of Buffoonery for those with the most dead-Apple predictions.





Apple Death Knells - new articles added are denoted by "New!"

New! - 5/1/2006 - Apple Death Knell #51: Linux vs. Windows Vista vs. Leopard -
MacNewsWorld, by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote:
2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If
Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is
likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case
will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it
currently dominates.

4/3/2006 - Apple Death Knell #50: Apple faces second attack of the clones - The
Age, by Alan Kohler
Relevant Quote:
"Microsoft's software will power the new generation of phone/music players, and
the business of selling digital songs and TV shows will open up. Google will
probably run the most popular online store, but there will be thousands.

The iPod/iTunes system will move into a niche with Macintosh computers because
Steve Jobs has again stuck with closed architecture and total control. This
will happen quickly because mobile phones are being turned over about every
year." [Full Coverage by TMO]

3/8/2006 - Apple Death Knell #49: Five Reasons Why There Will Be No Macs in
2010 - AppleMatters, by Chris Seibold Relevant Quote:
"The Mac, and Apple, have been counted out more times than Gabby Jay. Unlike
Super Punch Out’s resident tomato can, the Mac keeps getting up off the mat.
Credit the people who love the platform, or OS X for the machine’s resilience,
but don’t count on the Mac being there forever. The era of the all-in-one
hardware and software solution has been gone for at least the last ten years,
even though Apple hasn’t quite caught on yet. Here are five reasons why Apple
will catch on and abandon Mac hardware by the start of the next decade." [Full
Coverage by TMO]

12/20/2005 - Apple Death Knell #48: 2006 could be year that Apple CEO Jobs
falls off pedestal - USA Today, by Kevin Maney Relevant Quote:
"Sometime in 2006, Steve Jobs will probably get hosed. That's not so much a
prediction as it is playing the odds. Nobody in America gets such a long ride
on the oh-we-sooooo-adore-you bandwagon." [Full Coverage by TMO]

9/20/2005 - Apple Death Knell #47: Windows Vista: The Final Countdown Begins -
TechNewsWorld, by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote:
"If Apple and the Linux community can't make the hard decisions needed to
address this competitive threat the negative impact on both of them will cover
a broad range and will be unavoidable."

[And]

"This suggests that 2006, at least after August, will be great time for buyers
and sellers of PC hardware and that has to be a good thing for everyone --
except Apple." [Full Coverage by TMO]

5/112005 - Apple Death Knell #46: Why Apple and folly go hand-in-glove - The
Age, commentary by Graeme Philipson Relevant Quote:
In the past few years the iPod and continued innovation of the Macintosh
architecture have ensured Apple's survival where many - myself included
- had predicted its demise. But if it continues its own march of folly,
that demise will be inevitable. [Full Coverage by TMO]

3/14/2005 - Apple Death Knell #45: Death Knell #44: Apple Will Dump Macs in
Five Years - TechNewsWorld, commentary by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote:
The consensus appears to be that within the next five years Apple will either
move to a new processor or exit the PC business. That will not be a fun choice,
but at least Steve Jobs will be able to play really cool Xbox games to take his
mind off of it. [Full Coverage by TMO]

12/30/2004 - Apple Death Knell #44: 12 Big Surprises for 2005 - TheStreet.com,
commentary by John D. Markman Relevant Quote:
Apple Computer releases two new handheld devices in an attempt to follow up its
iPod mega-hit, but they fail to gain traction. iPods begin stacking up at
electronics stores when it is discovered that, after a Christmas buying frenzy,
there are now 2.7 iPods for every American over the age of 6. Apple turns to
Philips Electronics for a bailout and is sold to the Netherlands-based consumer
electronics giant for $80 a share. [Full Coverage by TMO]

9/15/2004 - Apple Death Knell #43: Apple Must Change, Or Die - Connected Home
Magazine, commentary by Paul Thurrott Relevant Quote:
Apple's short-term success is very real and quite admirable, but the company's
inability to see coming trends in video, subscription content, and
interoperability suggests that Apple is repeating the mistakes of the past. In
the 1980s, the Mac held an early lead over the PC but was quickly buried after
the industry standardized on a common Microsoft technology. Today, that series
of events is repeating itself, and online music services -- and to a greater
degree, the digital delivery of all media types -- is very much at a nascent
stage. If Apple doesn't change its ways, the company simply won't survive.
[Full Coverage by TMO]

9/02/2004 - Apple's new iMac takes rear seat - CBS Marketwatch, commentary by
John C. Dvorak
Relevant Quote:
Perhaps if the company took the plunge and followed the path of Sony with
branded cameras, headphones, amplifiers and home theaters in a box it would be
more interesting. But milking this one pricey and faddish device is going to
ruin the company if it is going to be the center of attention, which it now
seems to be. [Emphasis added] [Full Coverage by TMO]

5/25/2004 - Short takes: Week of 24 May - ITnews, commentary by Paul Thurrott
Relevant Quote:
And speaking of Apple Computer, everyone's favourite little OS imitator
-- excuse me, innovator -- this week made an interesting patent bid that
could have ramifications for Longhorn. Apple wants a patent for applying
transparency to "information-bearing windows whose contents remain unchanged
for a predetermined period of time." In other words, these unused windows fade
away over time unless they're activated. Unless you've been living under a
rock, you know that Longhorn will feature translucent windows and various
window-transparency effects, so this patent attempt could possibly affect
Longhorn. Or not. Patent applications take years to culminate, and in the end
Apple might not even be awarded a patent. More to the point, by the time
Longhorn ships, Apple likely will have discontinued active computer OS
development, anyway, so that the company can concentrate on the
consumer-electronics market. [Full Coverage by TMO]

5/13/2004 - Mac Death Match, Round Five: Chaffin vs. Enderle - MacNewsWorld,
commentary by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote:
Apple has about 24 months to get its act together and position itself for the
post-Longhorn world of Linux and Windows. If it doesn't offer solutions that
will play on those platforms the way iTunes currently does on Windows, it will
probably become a footnote by the end of the decade. [Full Coverage by TMO]

3/17/2004 - Why iPod can't save Apple - Money Magazine, by Stephen Gandel
Relevant Quote: But behind the hype and buzz surrounding the iPod and Jobs,
there are problems stewing at Apple. Apple sold just over 3 million computers
in its last fiscal year, which ended in September -- 900,000 less than it sold
in fiscal 1996, the year before Jobs returned. [...] Meanwhile, Apple's share
of the worldwide personal-computer market has shrunk to 2 percent from 3.2
percent five years ago. [...] It's unclear what Jobs can do or plans to do to
turn around Apple's fortunes
-- he refused to talk to MONEY about its future. [Full Coverage by TMO]

3/05/2004 - How will Apple Grow? (archive link) - Paul Thurrott's Internet
Nexus, by Paul Thurrott
Relevant Quote: There's no debate (indeed, Apple executives are still using the
bogus 5 percent figure). Apple's market share is 1.88 percent today, and as
your own math showed you, it will be 1.7 percent or lower in 2004. Why is this
so hard for Mac advocates to understand? The Mac market is ending. Let's hope
Apple has broader consumer electronics plans than just the iPod. [Full Coverage
by TMO]

11/24/2003 - The Death of Sun, Apple and Novell - TechNewsWorld, by Rob Enderle
Reporting On Panel At Comdex Relevant Quote: I also asked which companies would
be dead. The panel agreed that it would be Apple, Sun and Novell. The panel
also agreed that if it didn't run on the x86 architecture, it was likely gone.
What was really interesting was that almost everyone I spoke with after this
panel said that this x86 prediction was like predicting that the sun would rise
in the morning -- in other words, that it was a given. Most participants felt
that the future world of technology would be solidly based on standards and
that anyone not using standards would be gone. [Full Coverage by TMO]

11/19/2003 - Apple Computer Could Run Out Of Steam - Forbes, comments by Banc
of America Securities analyst
Relevant Quote: Apple Computer "runs the risk of generating significant refresh
sales to its installed base for the next couple of quarters, and then running
out of steam once sales to the installed base are satisfied." The research firm
said, "We don't think there is any more creative company in the world than
Apple." It also added that Apple's fundamentals are "positive." But Banc of
America initiated coverage of Apple at "neutral," saying it was concerned that
G5 refresh sales will slow, iTunes won't contribute to the bottom line and iPod
is not "the only game in town anymore." [Full Coverage by TMO]

11/17/2003 - How Linux And The Mac Can Compete Against Windows "Longhorn"
(Enderle) - InternetWeek, by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote: Apple will have some
serious problems because the Apple hardware platform will not be able to create
customer demand comparable to what Linux could do. To generate that kind of
demand, Apple will need to either move to Intel, or get significant help from
its hardware partner, IBM. IBM won't help broadly unless both the IBM PC
business unit and IBM Microelectronics cooperate, and the PC company may not
want to undercut its own sales of PC-based systems and they are strategically
tied to Linux and Microsoft today. [Full Coverage by TMO]

11/07/2003 - Your 99c belong to the RIAA - Steve Jobs - The Register, by Andrew
Orlowski
Relevant Quote: While much of the received wisdom in both the music industries
and technology industries see compulsory licenses in one form or another as
inevitable, both Apple and RIAA are agreed on the short-term solution. One
where the ancient copyright rules spin the money back to the pigopolists, and
some sucker, like Apple, is left holding a brand of dubious (and soon to be
extinct) value. [Emphasis added] [Full Coverage by TMO]

10/06/2003 - Apple, Linux and BSD: The 'Other' Platforms - TechNewsWorld, by
Rob Enderle
Relevant Quote: "The biggest long-term problem with moving to an Apple platform
is that the company is in decline, which means you might have to migrate again
at some point to another platform. Despite this, the Mac is a solid platform
and looks damn good on a desktop." [Full Coverage by TMO]

6/12/2003 - Apple Hits a High, but Fails to Convince Big Investors -
TheStreet.com, by K.C. Swanson, Comments by unnamed fund manager Relevant
Quote: "Apple clearly has great customer loyalty. But they just can't compete
with Microsoft and Intel," says one fund manager who asked to remain anonymous,
calling Apple "a classic example" of a company on the losing end of long-term
competitive pressure. "It's been a value stock for a long time. I think we made
the decision a long time back on sticking with winners," says the manager.
[Full Coverage by TMO]

6/12/2003 - Mac G5: Too Little, Too Late - NewsFactor, by James Maguire
Relevant Quote: If the rumor was, instead of a hot G5, that Apple had developed
a new manufacturing process that enabled it to compete price-wise with Windows,
that would be the news Apple needs.

Looking at the future of the PC market, Apple's premium pricing structure
becomes ever more outdated. A few years downstream, Linux desktops will force
Windows to get cheaper. At that point even Windows boxes, seriously cheaper
than Apple, will be in the "too expensive" category. [Commentary by TMO]

5/12/2003 - Carving up Apple - TheDeal.com, by Joshua Jaffe Relevant Quote:
Many close observers of the legendary Silicon Valley company believe
shareholders shouldn't be selling the stock. They should be buying it, they
say, in order to press the 48-year-old Jobs to split Apple into two separate
companies built around its hardware and software lines of businesses, or get
new management that will. "Given what their valuation currently is, I think
this is something they will eventually have to do," argues Rob Enderle, a
research fellow at Giga, a research unit of Santa Clara, Calif.-based Forrester
Research Inc. "They have to dig themselves out of the going-out-of-business
cycle they are currently in.

5/10/2003 - Apple's Exit Strategy - USS Clueless Blog, by Steven Den Beste
Relevant Quote: If those things are true, it doesn't mean instant death. It's
more like a lingering debilitating illness, leading to slow decline over a
period of years. It's not so much an urgent crisis as it is a long term certain
death sentence. Suppose that Jobs knows this. We don't know how much IBM
expects to charge Apple for the 970, but Jobs certainly must know at least in
general terms. If so, then if Jobs himself knows that the Mac is doomed, it
means that Jobs primary duty to his stockholders is to find another business to
move Apple into, during the breathing space available while the computer
business slowly withers away.

5/8/2003 - Do Not Read This Column! - MacNet, by John Manzione Relevant Quote:
Is Apple doomed to fail? If I had to bet on it I would say they absolutely are.
No one at Apple has the guts to correct the mistakes of Steve Jobs. Apple is a
toy for Steve, and a way to massage his ego. Right now no PC company makes
hardware that looks as good as Macs, and no OS looks as good as OS X. That can,
and will, change very soon. The PC world has gotten the message, and they’ll
soon drive the final nail into the Apple coffin.

1/23/2003 - Apple's seeds choked by weeds - WorldNetDaily, by Russ McGuire
Relevant Quote: Notebook computers, operating systems, monitors, servers,
presentation software… I'm sorry, these are commodities that are already widely
adopted. Find a way to exit these businesses – preferably by spinning out or
selling to a company that can continue to support die-hard Macintosh fans who
are married to the ways that the Mac OS blows away Windows.

Instead, go searching for the next insanely great product. What's the next item
that has technology that's ready, a market environment that's ripe, but which
lacks the incredible design that can both make it work easily and well, but
also make people want it? That's what Apple should be all about. Capturing the
margins while the product is hot. Exiting the product line when it
commoditizes.

1/6/2003 - What's Ahead for 2003? - MSNBC, by Michael Rogers Relevant Quote:
There are always certain stories on the horizon where I expect some plot turns,
and this week I'll suggest a few prospects for the 2003 watch-list. [...] Apple
Gets Married: There are only so many redesigns of the iMac left for Cupertino,
and being the Bang and Olufsen of computers doesn't look like a longtime niche.
The company is moving toward the consumer electronics space, in everything from
digital media boxes to handheld players -- but that is even more vicious and
margin-thin territory than the PC biz. Even for Steve Jobs, going up against
Sony has to look a bit scary. So does Apple license their cool media software
for others to build into devices? The one time they tried licensing, Apple
execs pulled the plug quickly. The elegant fusion of hardware and software is
the DNA of Apple; seeing the Apple logo come up on the screen of some tinny
consumer junk seems like sacrilege. Apple needs a long-term partnership, or
even an outright sale, to someone who really knows how to play the game. My
candidate: Canon. Jobs has a long-term relationship with the company (they
helped him both get into and out of his NeXT computer venture). And check out
those new ads with an Apple on one page and a Canon camera on the other: when
you give that much expensive space to someone they better be more than just a
friend.

12/19/2002 - IDC Says Linux Will Pass Mac OS Market Share By 2005, Possibly End
Of 2003 - Article by TMO, Comments by IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky
Relevant Quote: "Certainly by...2005, possibly by the end of 2003, Linux will
pass Mac OS as the No. 2 operating environment," said IDC analyst Dan
Kusnetzky.

11/05/2002 - Crunch Time for Apple - osOpinion, by James Maguire Relevant
Quote: So, the challenge Apple faces is a tough one. It has to offer Macs at
prices comparable with Windows, at speeds as fast as those of Windows-based
PCs, with complete Windows compatibility. If it can't do that, the brand will
simply fade away, a quarter of a percentage point at a time. I'll miss it.

10/28/2002 - IT Trends 2003: Desktop and Mobile PCs [PDF - Link Corrected] -
Giga Information Group, by Rob Enderle Relevant Quote: Apple is being driven
out of every segment but consumer: Companies are driving out non-standard
hardware and both increasingly view Linux as a better alternative platform and
UNIX as a platform they don't want to resurge on the desktop. The lack of
management tools, pull back of key vendors like Quark and an anticipated drop
in market share below 2 percent in 2003 are obsolescing this platform. Apple's
continued technical disadvantage against Intel is expected to force them to
adopt x86 technology by the end of 2003. [Commentary by TMO]

10/18/2002 - Reflections from the Microprocessor Forum - Geek.com, by Sander
Olson
Relevant Quote: Apple is in long-term decline. Even if Apple adopts the IBM
970, no one at the MPF expressed any confidence in Apple's future. The near
consensus was that Apple was in a long term, perhaps terminal, decline, and
that the 970 would not be enough to save it. Every year more Macintosh users
convert to Windows, and this trend will continue unless Apple comes out with
another "insanely great" product.

6/17/2002 - E-Mac, i-Mac, No Mac - PC Magazine, by John C. Dvorak Relevant
Quote: [This is more about the Mac than Apple, but follows Mr. Dvorak's
negative coverage of Apple.] Isn't it about time the Macintosh was simply
discontinued -- put down like an old dog? Why, exactly, does Apple maintain
this line of machines instead of starting fresh or at least introducing
something new with fresh legs. The Mac has become the AS/400 of desktop
computing, except for the fact that it's prettier. Of course, if Apple never
moves forward, what happens to the copycat Windows platform? [Commentary by
TMO]

2002 - Apple's demise - Web site dedicated to tracking Apple's downfall, by
Paul Hsieh
Relevant Quote: Who says Apple is Doomed? I DO!

10/25/2001 - Apple's Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel - TheStreet.com, by Arne
Alsin
Relevant Quote: It's too bad for Apple that the ending to this chapter in the
PC story has already been written. The company had the ultimate first-mover
advantage many years ago with an array of better products, a vastly superior
operating system and even the best commercials! Apple's story now is fodder for
business historians -- don't make it fodder for your portfolio. [Commentary by
TMO]

9/5/2001 - Apple Core of Ailing PC Sector - Bear Argument - TheMotleyFool, by
Paul Larson
Relevant Quote: So why am I here relaying my bearish thoughts on Apple yet
again? Because, basically, nothing has changed over the last nine months. That
is, beyond Apple seeing greatly decreased sales while ringing up copious
losses. Moreover, the company's competitive positioning still has the company
as nothing more than a niche player fighting for its survival in the mean world
of PCs. [See also the accompanying Bull Argument by Rick Aristotle Munarriz
that was published with this piece, as well as commentary from TMO.]

5/21/2001 - Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work
- BusinessWeek, Cliff Edwards
Relevant Quote: [There's the title, plus the following:]

The way Jobs sees it, the stores look to be a sure thing. But even if they
attain a measure of success, few outsiders think new stores, no matter how
well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path. Jobs's focus on
selling just a few consumer Macs has helped boost profits, but it is keeping
Apple from exploring potential new markets. And his perfectionist attention to
aesthetics has resulted in beautiful but pricey products with limited appeal
outside the faithful: Apple's market share is a measly 2.8%. "Apple's problem
is it still believes the way to grow is serving caviar in a world that seems
pretty content with cheese and crackers," gripes former Chief Financial Officer
Joseph Graziano.

5/21/2001 - Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work
- BusinessWeek, Cliff Edwards; Death Knell by David Goldstein quoted in
article
Relevant Quote: "I give them two years before they're turning out the lights on
a very painful and expensive mistake." David Goldstein was at this time the
president of Channel Marketing Corp, and research and analysis company covering
the retail sector. [As of this writing, it's been more than two and a half
years, and the Apple Stores are doing well. - Editor]

4/16/2001 - Q&A: The Tech Slump Doesn't Scare Michael Dell - Interview with
Michael Dell
Relevant Quote: Q: What is the future of Apple Computer? A: Silicon Graphics.

Q: That bad?
A: Maybe it's a little bit different. But if you look at proprietary computer
companies, whether it's Digital or Silicon Graphics (SGI ) or Apple (AAPL ), I
think the fates are all relatively similar. We know how the movie ends. It's
just a question of what happens in the middle. Apple has a very little customer
base. If you look at the economics, it has been extremely hard for Apple to get
a return on its R&D with a shrinking volume base. It's not to say that Apple's
products aren't innovative or cool, but the economic factors here are so
overwhelming, it's very hard for them to swim against that tide. [Commentary
from TMO.]

1/5/2001 - Technology's walking dead - ZDNet, by Michael Kanellos (Though the
bio is about Paul Somerson, under whose name this piece appears to have been
originally published) Relevant Quote: [Article about tech predictions] 2004:
Apple Watch for the big fire sale. Pretty designs and overpriced blue plastic
can only get you so far. [Commentary from TMO.]

12/11/2000 - Why Apple Is Losing Its Appeal Again - BusinessWeek, by Sam Jaffe
Relevant Quote: Investors may be asking themselves what Apple can do to revive
its fortunes. The likely answer, unfortunately, is that Steve Jobs has no white
rabbits left in his hat. Apple appears to be facing a dead end in its business
growth, the victim of mismanagement and unmitigated hubris. Apple lovers are a
loyal bunch, and they'll probably stick with the company. But Jobs's dream of
becoming the world's biggest computer-maker will likely remain just that -- a
dream. [Commentary by TMO]

10/5/2000 - Apple R.I.P. - Forbes, by Michael S. Malone Relevant Quote: Steve
Jobs can't run companies, but he has proven that he is a genius at motivating
teams of people to produce extraordinary products. In fact, he may be the
greatest project team leader in the history of high tech. That is no small
achievement. But it does not translate to being the CEO of a giant corporation.
Jobs failed the first time running Apple, failed at Next and only succeeded at
Pixar because the company worked around him. He succeeded in the short term
during this, his second, Apple tenure because he ran the whole company as a
product team. That only works so long. Why is he a poor CEO? Because he's
mercurial, insufficiently engaged by the more boring (but crucial) operations
like distribution and, ultimately, because he's a pretty nasty piece of work.
In the best of all scenarios, Jobs would hire a competent CEO and focus on
product development, but his ego would soon lead him to undermine his
replacement. Steve Jobs is Apple's Alcibiades: the company can't live without
him, or with him.

10/5/1998 - OH, DO I LOVE MY iMAC - BusinessWeek, by Peter Burrows (Negative
Comments from then Oppenheimer analyst James Poyner) Relevant Quote: How will
iMac fare once the novelty fades? ''This computer is a fashion statement right
now, but those things wear off,'' says Oppenheimer Securities analyst James D.
Poyner. ''If Apple intends to sell lots of machines based on how they look,
that's a pretty tenuous story.'' The iMac has to hold its own in a market of
sub-$1,000 (and falling) PCs. And Korean-based E-Machines has announced plans
to sell an iMac look-alike for less than $600, say analysts.

10/6/1997 - Sybase's Chief Exec Says Microsoft Faces "Crossroads Crisis"
- TechWeb, by Steve Burke (Negative Comments from Dell CEO Michael Dell)
Relevant Quote: Faced with a similar question on what he would do if he were
acting chief executive Steve Jobs, Dell chief executive Michael Dell said, "I'd
shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."

9/5/1997 - Rotten To The Core - Webintosh (now The Mac Observer), by Bryan
Chaffin
Relevant Quote: I am interested in starting a shareholder drive to give Joel
Kocher the position of President/CEO of Apple. That might be a stretch, but
wouldn't it be fun? With Apple's right to hire Power employees, I could swiftly
envision an Apple that is better than either Power or Apple were in the past!!
Mr. Kocher, are you interested? In the meanwhile, Power Computing will be
selling Mac OS systems for another three months. I am intending to buy enough
systems from Power to last my company until Rhapsody is released. At least then
I can buy an Intel system that will run a good OS. I love the Mac, I look
forward to Rhapdosy, I despise Apple. Mr. Jobs, go back to Pixar and make
movies, I think you have done enough to "save" Apple.

6/30/1997 - Apple Abandoned By Jobs, Ad Agency - Tabloid, Author unknown
Relevant Quote: n Apple spokesperson acknowledged that a block of 1.5 million
shares had been sold on Thursday but would not confirm that the sale involved
Jobs. But the California Technology Stock Letter confirmed that the shares
belonged to Jobs, according to the Newsbytes News Network. Jobs' sell-off of
stock at rock-bottom prices is a clear indication that even the Apple
co-founder -- who recently returned to the fold as uber-consultant to
floundering Apple CEO Gil Amelio -- thinks the company is a dead fish. [Thanks
to an anonymous Observer for the link.]

6/1997 - 101 Ways to Save Apple - Wired Magazine, Death Knell by Milo Medin,
then president of @Home t
Relevant Quote: I'm a Mac lover, but last year I switched over completely to
Windoze because Apple couldn't build a reasonable laptop. I really want it to
succeed, but I think the company's finished. Software vendors aren't turning
out enough code to keep the Mac as a really good platform, even for family and
school stuff. This whole NeXT decision seems to be a waste of time. It should
have been sold to HP for
$35 per share a year and a half ago. Maybe if Apple caves in, Windows
will get so much market share that the Department of Justice will intervene and
break up Microsoft. I think Window's competition is really the NC- and
WebTV-type box. Which is truly sad.

6/1997 - 101 Ways to Save Apple [Link Corrected] - Wired Magazine, Death Knell
by Nathan Myhrvold, then chief technology officer at Microsoft Relevant Quote:
"The NeXT purchase is too little too late. The Apple of the past was an
innovative company that used software and hardware technology together to
redefine the way people experienced computing. That Apple is already dead. Very
adroit moves might be able to save the brand name. A company with the letters
A-P-P-L-E in its name might survive, but it won't be the Apple of yore."

1997 - Surrender To Win - The Writeside Review (Specific author not known)
Relevant Quote: [We love the Mac, blah blah blah...] But we have had enough.
Apple cannot continue on its present course and expect to survive. Apple and
(by default) the Mac are in a downward spiral that, unless reversed soon, will
prove fatal. (Don't let the early, limited success of the Mac clone market
mislead you—most of this growth has come at Apple's expense. And, contrary to
popular opinion, we do not believe the Macintosh can survive without Apple.)
The popular press, the corporate marketplace and the public at large all
believe Apple is dying, or dead.

2/6/1997 - The Untold Story of Apple's Demise - Bug Net, by Bruce Brown
Relevant Quote: Now that the Apple Macintosh is disappearing as a mass market
product (it did not even make the top five in US sales during the last quarter
of 1996), this soap opera will mercifully fade from the headlines. But the
lessons remain, and bare heading: inept, amateurish management can ruin the
best product and brightest company.

2/5/1996 - Apple of Sun's Eyes - Time Magazine, by Stewart Alsop Relevant
Quote: One day Apple was a major technology company with assets to make any
self-respecting techno-conglomerate salivate. The next day Apple was a chaotic
mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future. [Article found through
David Pogue's column "The Desktop Critic: Reality Check 2000" in Macworld
Magazine]

1/25/1996 - A Rotten Apple and A Rising Sun [Article No Longer Hosted]- Article
by Timothy Szykula, Death Knell uttered by Stan Dolberg of Forester Research
Relevant Quote: These facts were summed up by Stan Dolberg of Forrester
Research who said, "whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know
it, is cooked." [Article found through David Pogue's column "The Desktop
Critic: Reality Check 2000" in Macworld Magazine, where the quote still
resides.]

4/20/1995 - Interview With Steve Jobs - Interview by Daniel Morrow, Death Knell
by Steve Jobs (see our comments in the introduction above) Relevant Quote: What
that cost them was the future. What they should have been doing was making
reasonable profits and going for market share, which was what we always tried
to do. Macintosh would have had a thirty- three percent market share right now,
maybe even higher, maybe it would have even been Microsoft but we'll never
know. Now its got a single digit market share and falling. There's no way to
ever get that moment in time back. The Macintosh will die in another few years
and its really sad. The problem is this: no one at Apple has a clue as to how
to create the next Macintosh because no one running any part of Apple was there
when the Macintosh was made--or any other product at Apple. They've just been
living off that one thing now for over a decade and the last attempt was the
Newton and you know what happened to that. It's kind of tragic, but as
unemotionally as I can be, that's what's happening. Unless somebody pulls a
rabbit out of a hat, companies tend to have long glide slopes because of the
installed bases. But Apple is just gliding down this slope and they're loosing
market share every year. Things start to spiral down once you get under a
certain threshold. And when developers no longer write applications for your
computer, that's when it really starts to fall apart.

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