Text 17415, 48 rader
Skriven 2007-04-15 09:19:16 av mike (1:379/45)
Ärende: Microsoft is Dead: The Cliff Notes
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From: mike <mike@barkto.com>


http://www.paulgraham.com/cliffsnotes.html

===
When I wrote that Microsoft was dead, I didn't mean it literally. I couldn't
have. Companies aren't alive, so they can't die.

In fact "Microsoft is Dead" was what we in the trade call a metaphor. I meant
something else. Over the last couple days there has been some disagreement
about what I meant. Some people who were scandalized by the essay convinced
themselves I meant something rather stupid: that Microsoft is about to go out
of business. This they diligently refuted.

So maybe I'd better explain exactly what I did mean. What I meant was not that
Microsoft is suddenly going to stop making money, but that people at the
leading edge of the software business no longer have to think about them.

There are plenty of companies in that category that make decent profits. SAP
for example. They make a lot of money. But does anyone developing new
technology have to worry about them? I doubt it. When I said that Microsoft was
dead, I meant they had, like IBM before them, passed across into this
underworld.

Ceasing to matter doesn't mean a company is going to go out of business next
year, any more than it means a pop star will suddenly become poor. But it
probably means there is trouble ahead. Actors and musicians occasionally make
comebacks, but technology companies almost never do. Technology companies are
projectiles. And because of that you can call them dead long before any
problems show up on the balance sheet. Relevance may lead revenues by five or
even ten years.

People have given me various disreputable motives for saying that Microsoft was
dead: that it was linkbait, or even that by publicly ridiculing them I hoped to
turn them into a "customer" for YC-funded startups. (I'm not that bad at
sales.) My actual disreputable motive was that I wanted to be the first to call
it. But that does at least entail some risk. If you're the first to call
something, you'd better be right. If the monster turns out not to be dead after
all—if they can somehow morph themselves into something startups have to worry
about again—I'll look like a fool. But I'm willing to take that risk.
===


  /m

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