Text 3343, 85 rader
Skriven 2005-03-27 13:36:56 av Mike '/m' (1:379/45)
Ärende: Thomas Hazlett: Is Microsoft toast?
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From: Mike '/m' <mike@barkto.com>

Good grief, this isn't a commentary on some Linux site, it's the Financial
Times.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0fa4c038-9c8b-11d9-b1c2-00000e2511c8.html

("The writer is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy
Research")

===
The US government proved that Microsoft possessed, and illegally exploited,
monopoly power in the “antitrust case of the centuryö, the six-year action that
ended in July 2004. The Final Judgment allowed Microsoft to remain whole, but
imposed conditions that permit rival software makers to tuck their products
into its Windows operating system. Anti-Microsoft groups were outraged; a
spokesman for one said: “This decision represents the failure of antitrust laws
in the high-tech industry… An unrestrained monopolist in the most vibrant
sector of the economy cannot be good for America.ö

The critics were right: the Government’s remedies have had little impact. Yet
today customers are flocking to Microsoft’s competitors. Hammered on multiple
fronts by opportunistic rivals, the high-flying starship of the PC Age has
stalled, and many wonder if it will now crash and burn.

Compare the fortunes of Apple and Microsoft. To most, Apple is yesterday’s
news, “That ‘70s Show.ö But the company, despite myriad marketing blunders, has
survived, and today the Mac is back. Finally price competitive with PCs, and
offering software used interchangeably with other programs, the company is
staging a run. Apple’s share of the US desk top computers market was up by half
from 2003 to 2004.

That share is still low – just 3 per cent for desk tops, about twice that for
notebooks – but a much bigger run may be in the offing. That is because of the
plague that has hit the Windows world. Apple, with its tight, integrated
interfaces cinching hardware to software has proven powerfully resistant to
viruses and spyware, the poisonous infections of the Internet. Meanwhile,
Microsoft users scramble to update their software with the latest patches,
frantically downloading anti-viral software, running and re-running spyware
disinfectants. With the Mac offering equally proficient word processing,
presentations, spread sheets, web browsing and email, along with the standard
multi-media applications, many are asking: Why bother?

Over the two year period commencing March 18, 2003, Microsoft shares rose 5.3
per cent; Apple’s 373 per cent; and the Nasdaq Index, 43.4 per cent (bouncing
back from historic lows). The upshot: while Microsoft’s market cap has
flat-lined at $260bn, Apple has jumped from $6bn to $35bn. Of course, the
spectacularly popular iPod music box has generated much of the buzz –
underscoring Apple’s multi-pronged assault on the Microsoft Monopoly. Neither
flank of the pincer movement was anticipated by regulators, or their remedies.
Recall that the government’s anti-monopoly solutions focused on gaining access
for multi-media software, such as that provided by RealNetworks, to piggyback
on the Windows network. Yet the creation of an entirely new web-based gizmo,
tied online to Apple’s iTunes, has proven the killer app. And despite the
explosion in (legal) online music downloads, RealNetworks has seen its shares
rise less than the Nasdaq over the past two years.

But the resurrection of Apple may only be a petty skirmish for Microsoft’s
field generals, as a new “browser warö has been launched. Mozilla, producing an
“open sourceö web browser called Firefox, blasted onto the scene last year
(with $25m in development funding from Microsoft rival Time Warner, owner of
the presumably vanquished AOL-Netscape), and is now gaining traction.
Microsoft’s Internet Explorer dropped to below ninety percent market share for
the first time in years this past February; Mozilla Firefox has 6 per cent.
Customers are embracing Mozilla because it navigates the web faster than I.E.,
is free to download, and resistant to spyware.

Of course, Microsoft will do fine if its Windows customers use Firefox and like
it; it will be easier to be a Microsoft customer if the malicious-ware of the
Internet is kept at bay. But the threat, just as with Netscape (and its
embedded Java script) a decade ago, is that valuable functions will gradually
shift away from Microsoft’s domain – including, in the end, the operating
system itself. This application creep happens so easily – take the Google
gambit. A company provides a new and improved search engine, splices in a few
well-targeted ads, and is now capitalized at $50bn. Microsoft, despite ‘owning’
the software on which the applications run, did not get here first. Ouch....
===

While I don't agree with all that is in there, the presence of this commentary
is sure to evoke debate and discussion outside of the normal areas.

 /m

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