Text 49, 48 rader
Skriven 2004-07-19 14:58:40 av Monte Davis (1:379/45)
     Kommentar till text 45 av Robert Comer (1:379/45)
Ärende: Re: 35 years ago today
==============================
From: Monte Davis <monte.davis@verizon.net>

"Robert Comer" <bobcomer_removeme@mindspring.com> wrote:

>> Hint^2: we're not talking NASA, or even governments, any more...
>
>That's going to become a big question later on, isn't it...

See Chapter 7, "ROI in the Sky," and Chapter 8, "Whose Rules?"

The point of writing the book now, even though I think it's x= >10 years to the
cable material, is that this sucker could go up in x+3 years. That's why people
are doing system design and even beginning engineering studies on stuff like
climber drive mechanisms now.

After x+3 the consequences will hit very fast, and grow VERY FAST. None too
soon to start thinking.

How will China (or State, or the DOD) react when, say, Taiwan sends up
satellite reconnaissance and comm as good as the US has today? Satellites
launched from the elevator don't need to be made expensively ultra-light or
power-conserving, or take 6G launch stress plus aerodynamic buffeting, or fit
in a rocket form factor, or go years without maintenance -- so they're much
cheaper to build as well as *much* cheaper to launch. (Hell, what if Taiwan,
Singapore and Brunei pony up to build the first one?)

How will Exxon and Saudi Arabia and Cheney and the rest of the global economy
handle the arrival of gigawatt-hours from solar power satellites that are as
cheap as (and incomparably cleaner than) gigawatt-hours from dead dinosaurs?
Transitions can get messy.

Who do you trust for security to ensure that nothing... unpleasant for the
elevator itself, or for a city on the ground, is smuggled up? Do you want
*those* screeners getting minimum wage?

What happens to the pious, pointless UN consensus that "space is the common
heritage of mankind" -- adequate when there were two big players and one was
bringing home some moon rocks -- when there are lots of players?

Some of them will want to manufacture on the moon and sell their products, some
of them will want to mine the asteroids a Mesabi Range's worth at a time. And
lordy me, I'd be very surprised if some of them don't have ambitions, weapons,
and bad attitudes.

-Monte

--- BBBS/NT v4.01 Flag-5
 * Origin: Barktopia BBS Site http://HarborWebs.com:8081 (1:379/45)