Text 7218, 165 rader
Skriven 2005-09-18 17:56:18 av Mike '/m' (1:379/45)
   Kommentar till text 7215 av Geo (1:379/45)
Ärende: Re: Avian Flu: Is the Government Ready for an Epidemic?
===============================================================
From: Mike '/m' <mike@barkto.com>

Yeha, I agree the main premis ehere is that the avian flu has not yet
experienced human-to-human transmission, but when/if it does, it may be a
significant problem.   Most of the more scientific articles I read say
"when", not "if", the mutation allowing human-to-human transmission occurs. 
What those articles also mention is a hope that the virus is somehow weakened
during that mutation.

Time will tell.

 /m


On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 14:28:10 -0400, "Geo" <georger@nls.net> wrote:

>"Mike '/m'" <mike@barkto.com> wrote in message
>news:bg3ri19v4hq910hh000sisr66se9na4qti@4ax.com...
>
>>  It could kill a billion people worldwide, make ghost towns out of parts
>> of major cities, and there is not enough medicine to fight it. It is
>> called the avian flu.
>
>And anyone who watched Enterprise (the series) in the expanse knows how
>avian flu wiped out one of the six zindi species..
>
>> This week, the U.S. government agreed to stockpile $100 million worth of
>> a still-experimental vaccine,
>
>Soon as I see big $ like that I think freon and how Dow chemical did so much
>lobying to get freon outlawed so that only their R134 type could be used.
>Did it make a difference, I dunno, I can't see a hole in the ozone layer so
>to me it's all based on what I'm told by the highly paid experts who don't
>want me to know who is paying them.
>
>> "We must also remain on the offensive against new threats to public
>> health, such as the Avian influenza," Bush said in his speech to world
>> leaders. "If left unchallenged, the virus could become the first
>> pandemic of the 21st century."
>
>Oh crap, here we go, Dr Bob strikes again.. Don't tell me, the vaccine is
>perishable and needs to be disposed of after 3 months and replaced with
>fresh vaccine for another $100mil.. and it probably comes from some sub
>company of Dicks..
>
>> "If we had a significant worldwide epidemic of this particular avian
>> flu, the H5N1 virus, and it hit the United States and the world, because
>> it would be everywhere at once, I think we would see outcomes that would
>> be virtually impossible to imagine," he warns.
>
>Possibly, otoh ebola outbreaks could be nasty as well but I don't see them
>stockpiling a vaccine. Bird flu requires that you be exposed to birds, when
>was the last time you touched a bird other than eating chicken? If some
>outbreak happened, would not eating chicken seriously impact your life
>style?
>
>> "Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it
>> infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy
>> at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu
>> we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."
>
>That tells us nothing without knowing how many it has infected, it could
>mean that of the 20 people who got it 11 died. Kinda hard to evaluate the
>threat level without knowing how easily it spreads.
>
>> "The tipping point, the place where it becomes something of an immediate
>> concern, is where that virus changes, we call it mutates, to something
>> that is able to go from human to human," says Redlener, director of the
>> National Center for Disaster Preparedness.
>>
>> Echoes of the 'Spanish Flu' Epidemic
>>
>> Scientists in Asia and around the world are now working around the clock
>> as they wait for that tipping point.
>
>Doesn't it have to mutate before you can make a vaccine for it?
>
>> lung tissue and causes severe pneumonia," says Dr. Malik Peiris, the
>> scientist who first discovered the so-called SARS virus, which killed
>> 700 people and drew worldwide attention.
>
>700? That's all SARS killed? Geeze, that doesn't even begin to compare to
>things like auto accidents, hell it doesn't even compare to the murder rate
>in large cities..
>
>> To date, there have been 57 confirmed human deaths,
>
>Oh here we go, so 55% of 57 is ... 31, it's killed 31 people.
>
>> and another
>> suspected one last week in Indonesia.
>
>31 people in places that may not have the best medical care available. And,
>and this is the import part, it's not running rampant thru the human
>population there.
>
>> "Once that virus is capable of not needing the birds to infect humans,
>
>then it will likely be very different from the type that the $100million
>vaccine prevents..
>
>> "It's on people's hands. You shake hands. You touch a doorknob that
>> somebody recently touched," Garrett says, referring to how the flu is
>> spread.
>
>Excuse me? I thought it still required birds to spread so how does he know
>this is true? Another point, do you see birds falling from the sky outside
>your house? Have you noticed many dead birds anywhere, I mean besides the
>ones killed to prevent the spread of avian flu? Don't birds fly MORE THAN
>PEOPLE???
>
>> The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan, obtained
>> and examined by ABC News' "Primetime," predicts as many as 200,000
>> Americans will die within a few months. This is considered a
>> conservative estimate.
>
>Sorry, I just don't respond well to the fear mongering crap. How do you come
>up with a number like this, does this mean it's going to infect less than
>400,000 people if it kills 55% of them?
>
>> While there is no vaccine to stop the flu, there is one medicine to
>> treat it. Called Tamiflu, it is made by the Roche pharmaceutical company
>> in Switzerland. Roche has been selling Tamiflu for years.
>
>How much has Roche spent to get this pushed to the front burner? $100
>million?
>
>> Only recently, however, did scientists learn of its potential to work
>> against the killer flu, H5N1. That has since created a huge demand and a
>> critical shortage.
>
>Only recently? How convenient, shortage you say, guess it's going to be
>expensive..
>
>> "All of the wealthiest countries in the world are trying to purchase
>> stockpiles of Tamiflu," says Garrett. "Our current stockpile is around
>> 2.5 million courses of treatment."
>
>You only need 400,000 you idiot, that's according to your own projections.
>
>> Faced with worldwide demand, the Roche company, which produces Tamiflu,
>> has organized a first-come, first-served waiting list. The United States
>> is nowhere near the top.
>
>Until they offer more money per dose, which if you have $100 million in
>funding suddenly becomes quite easy..
>
>> Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., says the current Tamiflu
>> stockpile of 2 million could spell disaster.
>>
>> "That's totally inadequate. Totally inadequate today," says Frist, who
>> is also a physician. "The Tamiflu is what people would go after. It's
>> what you're going to ask for, I'm going to ask for, immediately."
>
>Hey, here's an idea, pull the patent and let any drug company make it. Bet
>that will get the supplies going and the price dropping.. of course that's
>not the goal though is it? But hey, lives are at stake dammit, we have no
>choice! (if they did that then I might believe they were really scared)
>
>Geo.
>
>

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