Text 9127, 75 rader
Skriven 2006-01-14 10:54:16 av Mike '/m' (1:379/45)
Ärende: Re: Cringely's predictions for 2006
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From: Mike '/m' <mike@barkto.com>

On Sat, 14 Jan 2006 10:08:19 -0500, "Geo" <georger@nls.net> wrote:

>The following is a list of predictions from Cringely. I thought they might
>be fun.

Here's a link, plus a scorecard for last year's predictions:
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20060112.html

===
It is time for my list of predictions for high-tech in the year ahead. Two
thousand and six will look completely different whether you are a home or
business computer user. Home users will find this an exciting time, with new
products and services galore, while business users -- especially BIG business
users -- will have to suffer with the breakdown of traditional suppliers and
with inevitable consolidation problems as their list of suppliers shrinks and
product lines are merged.

But first I have to be honest and take a look at how my predictions turned out
from a year ago. I've been doing this for many years now, and typically score
70 to 80 percent correct. Last year, I hit only 73 percent, but would have been
over 80 percent had Intel decided to come around and support AMD's 64-bit
instructions just a week earlier. Alas, readers have been looking back lately
and say my average may be down -- perhaps WAY down -- for 2005. Let's see.

I predicted that Microsoft's announced entry into the anti-virus business would
be a disaster for users because Microsoft simply wouldn't be able to keep up
with demand. Was I right or wrong? This is a difficult call because Microsoft
has done such a poor job that more than a year after announcing the product, it
isn't really here yet. But I'm going to claim this one because it has been a
bad year for Microsoft competitors in this space. Because of the imposing
shadow of Redmond, they haven't really come through with much of anything, and
the feeling of impending doom I had back then is just as present today. I'll go
further and actually add this to my 2006 list because it is still true.

I wrote that IF there were a trial in Burst v. Microsoft would lose, and that
if Microsoft were smart, they'd settle. They were smart and settled for $60
million -- something that wouldn't happen if they had expected to win. So far,
two correct.

I wrote that Apple would spend some of its cash horde on a major play for
market share. Well, they made the play but didn't pay, so I got this one wrong.

I predicted the RIAA would continue to sue music lovers and they have, despite
the fact that it doesn't help anyone and actually hurts everyone to do so.

I wrote that WiMax would be a huge story. Not! I was a year too early, and
probably two.

I wrote that VoIP would become more disruptive and cause major headaches for
telcos. Can't you smell the panic? SBC bought AT&T. Correctomundo!

I was wrong when I saw significant progress for desktop Linux, which was
wishful thinking.

I was right when I said that movie studios and TV networks would embrace video
downloading, and righter still when I said that SAP and IBM would be the big
winners of Oracle's PeopleSoft acquisition.

I was wrong when I saw resurgence for Cisco and right when I saw mainly gloom
and doom for Sun. Jonathan Schwartz has not yet shown me (or anyone) that he
knows how to save that company.

I was right when I said AMD would give Intel further fits.

I was right about Ultra Wide Band networking, Power Line networking, and the
PS3 being insignificant in 2005.

My final score was 10 correct and five incorrect, for a dismal 66 percent -- my
worst showing EVER. Could my job be in danger?...
===

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