Text 10019, 138 rader
Skriven 2005-03-17 16:28:02 av Al Jacobs (1:396/17.0)
  Kommentar till text 10008 av Vern Humphrey (1:123/140)
Ärende: GASOLENE PRICES ???
===========================
Hello Vern Humphrey,

JB>Did anyone else notice that the Senate approved drilling in ANWR ?

VH> Yep -- the start of a backlash against radical environmentalism.


Global Warming Unstoppable for 100 Years, Study Says
John Roach
National Geographic News
March 17, 2005

Tired of global warming? Get used to it.

Even if humans stop burning oil and coal tomorrow -- not likely -- 
we've already spewed enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere 
to cause temperatures to warm and sea levels to rise for at least 
another century.

That's the message from two studies appearing in tomorrow's issue 
of the journal Science.

Researchers used computer models of the global climate system to 
put numbers to the concept of thermal inertia -- the idea that global
climate changes are delayed because it water takes longer to heat up
and cool off than air does. The oceans are the primary drivers of the
global climate.

"Even if you stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases, you are
still committed to a certain amount of climate change no matter what
you do because of the lag in the ocean," said Gerald Meehl, a climate
scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, Colorado.

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide collect in the atmosphere and
are believed to act as a blanket, trapping heat and causing the Earth
to warm. To stop this warming, many scientists say humans must reduce
the amount of greenhouse gases they emit.

Human activities that make the largest contributions to greenhouse
gases include exhaust fumes from automobiles and commercial jets and
emissions from power stations and factories.

"The longer you wait to do something, the more climate change you are
committed to in the future," Meehl said.

***** Note: If Jeff Binkley and Vern Humphrey didn't find that worthy 
of their attention, the following may be:

Warming Lag

Meehl co-authored one of the Science studies. He and his colleagues
found that even if no more greenhouse gases are added to the
atmosphere, globally averaged air surface temperatures will rise about
1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) and global sea levels will
rise at least 4.3 inches (11 centimeters) by 2100.

The sea level rise estimate is conservative, because the models Meehl
and colleagues used only account for thermal expansion--water expands
as it warms, causing sea levels to rise. Melting glaciers and ice
sheets will likely at least double the sea level rise.

Since humans are unlikely to stop pumping greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere anytime soon, Meehl and his colleagues also ran their
computer models under scenarios in which the gases continue to
accumulate at low, medium, and high rates.

Under the worst-case scenario, by 2100 average temperatures are
projected to rise by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius) and
sea level by at least 12 inches (30 centimeters).

The second study was authored by Tom Wigley, also with the National
Center for Atmospheric Research. He looked at what would happen to
temperatures and sea levels if greenhouse gas concentrations stay
constant and if humans continue to add greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere.

Under the fixed-concentration scenario, the surface air temperature
rise could exceed 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by 2400,
and sea levels may rise at a rate of 4 inches (10 centimeters) per
century.

If humans keep emitting greenhouse gases at present rates, the surface
air temperatures could rise between 3.6 and 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2
and 6 degrees Celsius) by 2400, and sea levels may edge up at a rate
of 9.8 inches (25 centimeters) per century.

"Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions
to substantially below present levels," Wigley writes in Science.

Gavin Schmidt is a climate modeler with the NASA Goddard Institute 
for Space Studies in New York. He was not involved with either of the
studies, but he is not surprised by the thermal-inertia warming
demonstrated by the models.

"We have been talking about this for years," he said. Schmidt added
that several other teams, including his own, are planning to publish
modeling studies in the months ahead that will show similar results.

Like Meehl's team, Schmidt said climate scientists are up against a
deadline to publish their results so that they will be included in the
next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 
which is due out in 2007. For inclusion, results must be published by 
the end of 2005.

"All of them are going to show very similar numbers. These are just
the first out of the gate," he said.

Reversing Direction

Meehl said the modeling results demonstrate the contribution humans
have already made to warming temperatures and rising sea levels. To
reverse this trend would require humans to at least stabilize the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which means a
significant reduction in the amount of oil and coal humans burn each
year.

"I'm not an expert in the policy area, but it doesn't seem likely to
happen in the next few years," he said. Rather, he added, global
warming is a multigenerational problem: The choices we make now set
the stage for what our grandchildren will be forced to deal with
-- a little warming and sea level rise, or a lot.

According to Wigley, the most alarming aspect of his study is the
finding of a 4-inch-per-century (10-centimeter-per-century) rise in
sea level under the fixed-concentration scenario.

"Although such a slow rate may allow many coastal communities to
adapt, profound long-term impacts on low-lying island communities 
and on vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs seem inevitable," 
he writes.



                                                           

--- Maximus 3.01
 * Origin: New Orleans P.C. Club (1:396/17)