Text 1339, 92 rader
Skriven 2004-08-18 05:36:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: European support
========================
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,129151,00.html

Kerry Should Be Wary of European Support 
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
By Helle Dale 

"Save me from my friends. My enemies I can handle myself." 

That used to be one of my father's favorite sayings, and I must confess 
that when I was a child, it did not seem to make a whole lot of sense. 
It's only later you realize that not all friends are true friends. On 
the other hand, you can always be fairly certain who your enemies are.

This may be a lesson that Sen. John Kerry (search) still has to learn 
when it comes to our "friends" and "allies" in Europe. And conversely, 
Europeans who are positively salivating at the thought of a Kerry 
victory in November may be in for a rude awakening of their own. While 
both sides behave as though this would be a match made in heaven, the 
premises on which it would be based are more doubtful.

Of course, it is entirely possible that Europeans will have to deal with 
a second Bush administration. If recent policy modifications in 
Washington are any indication, they will be dealing with a Bush White 
House that is more likely to listen to their demands in the hope of 
greater cooperation. So far, that tactic has failed, and cooperation has 
hardly materialized in any substantial way.


At the Democratic convention and repeatedly in interviews since then, 
Mr. Kerry and his running mate, Sen. John Edwards (search), have made 
Europe a key factor in their foreign-policy statements. Both stress that 
they want "to restore our respect in the world to bring our allies to us 
and with us."

"It's how we won the World Wars and the Cold War and it's how we will 
build a stable Iraq," Mr. Edwards stated at the Democratic convention. 
The thinking in Democratic circles is that in the event of a Kerry 
victory, once a new leaf has been turned, the dialogue with Europe can 
start anew and a golden era will dawn in trans-Atlantic relations.

Specifically, Mr. Kerry has promised to withdraw American troops from 
Iraq on an accelerated schedule (though not immediately), bring NATO 
(search) into Iraq and find European troops to replace the exiting GIs. 
Mind you, these are not simply statements of foreign policy goals, but 
campaign promises made explicitly by Messrs. Kerry and Edwards.

Mr. Kerry, for instance, has proposed an international donor conference 
on Iraq, much like the Bonn conference on Afghanistan, and suggested 
placing a European in charge of handling reconstruction contracts for 
Iraq -- in return for the commitment of NATO troops. One senior Kerry 
adviser told the Financial Times bluntly that the departure of Mr. Bush 
would deprive our friends across the Atlantic of the excuse for inaction 
in Iraq: "We would put the Europeans on the spot."

The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes that certain 
European leaders are motivated solely by animus against President Bush. 
This will surely turn out to be a miscalculation. True, no one should 
underestimate the personal peeve felt by French President Jacques Chirac 
against both Mr. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, but even 
with a change in leadership in Washington, French national interests 
would not change.

Mr. Chirac is adamantly opposed to the use of NATO as an instrument of 
American power in any way, shape or form, and wants to balance the power 
of the United States with that of Europe.

It is equally hard to imagine German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder 
(search) committing troops, given the huge public uproar that would 
ensue in Germany. Or how about Spain? Can anyone imagine Spain's new 
government doing a 180-degree turn to recommit Spanish troops to Iraq? 
As for Mr. Blair, he has already increased British troop levels to the 
point that he has no more to send.

The question is whether anyone in Europe is thinking about the next step 
beyond the U.S. election. We can count on Mr. Blair to be one of the 
first visitors to the White House. Mr. Blair's strategy has always been 
to cleave closely to the American president in power without regard to 
party affiliation. At the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, diplomats 
are undoubtedly busy thinking up gestures to welcome a new Democratic 
president without jeopardizing their long-held positions.

Be assured, however, that in the event of a Kerry presidency, symbolic 
gestures would be the order of the day, but the substance of the 
relationship is unlikely to undergo much change. How then would Mr. 
Kerry fulfill his campaign promises?

Helle Dale is director of foreign policy and defense studies at The 
Heritage Foundation.


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