Text 13810, 88 rader
Skriven 2005-06-28 16:37:52 av Alan Hess
Ärende: what do we do re Syria?
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http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.rubin28jun28,1,6617114.st
ory?coll=bal-oped-headlines
Will U.S. give Syrian opposition the time it needs to ripen?


By Trudy Rubin

June 28, 2005

DAMASCUS, Syria - Anwar al-Bunni works in a low-ceilinged, wood-paneled
apartment office in a middle-class district of the Syrian capital, trying to
free political prisoners. His closest relatives have served a total of 60 years
in prison for opposing the Baath Party regime.

For most of that time, the rest of the world ignored him. But since President
Bush's democracy campaign, Damascus' small, brave group of human rights
advocates and lawyers, former political prisoners and opposition intellectuals
have become hot media items.

They deserve the attention, but they don't add up to any kind of an organized
opposition. They are small in number, their open supporters are few and
demonstrations are extremely rare. Organized Islamist opposition groups are
banned.

"For decades, we have had no political life," Mr. Bunni says. "All civil
society and political movements have been killed." He is describing a country
where the Assad family has ruled for 35 years.

If the Baath Party regime of President Bashar Assad collapsed, there would be
nothing to replace it. Every single opposition intellectual I spoke with
predicted chaos.

Many feared the biggest beneficiaries would be the adherents of hard-line
Islam. This is the Syrian reality. But it's not clear this reality is fully
grasped by the Bush administration. Official U.S. policy is to isolate Syria
and press it to change its behavior toward Iraq, Lebanon and Israel, but it's
clear that some senior U.S. officials would like to squeeze the regime until it
collapses.

There seems to be little interest in Washington in the survival of Mr. Assad,
even for a few years, during which the weak opposition might gain experience
and traction. After Mr. Assad, the deluge; let the Syrians pick up the pieces.
Sound familiar?

The new catchphrase in Washington for Mideast chaos is "constructive
instability" - out of which democracy will supposedly bloom. But does the
administration know any more about Syria's religious and ethnic complexities
than it did about Iraq's?

Power in Syria is held by the minority Alawites - offshoots of Shiite Islam -
who are despised by the majority Sunnis. Officially, the country is the most
secular Arab nation. Young women go to Damascus nightclubs in midriff-baring
blouses and tight pants.

But strict Islamic practice is on the rise. In poor Damascus neighborhoods,
every woman wears a long, enveloping coat, called a manteau, and a head scarf.
In the ancient city of Aleppo, women drift through markets and alleys in full
black robes, their faces fully or partly covered by black veils.

Syrian journalist Ibrahim Hamidi says people have turned in growing numbers to
the mosque because of the lack of freedom. Communism and Arab nationalism have
failed, so Islam seems the only answer. Many Syrians take jobs in Saudi Arabia
for better pay and come home converted to the hard-line Wahhabi stream of
Islam.

"In my home village," Mr. Hamidi says, "at least 20 teachers taught in Saudi
Arabia, and you can see the difference in their thinking."

So even though Syria is a tolerant society, and even though the Muslim
Brotherhood is banned, a sudden regime collapse could produce a surge of
Islamic groups trying to take power. Many worry about a Sunni burst of
vengeance against the Alawite minority if Mr. Assad falls. Members of Syria's
many Christian churches worry that fundamentalists will threaten them. And all
Syrian Arabs, even the handful of liberals, worry the Syrian Kurds will try to
emulate their Iraqi cousins and secede in all but name.

A sudden collapse of the Assad regime could tear Syria's complex social fabric
apart, unless it occurs after a transition that allows Syria's tiny opposition
to develop. The regime will collapse soon enough, unless it reforms. But does
Washington want to push Syria toward reform, or toward the chaotic Iraqi model?

Trudy Rubin is a columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer. Her column appears
Tuesdays and Fridays in The Sun.

Copyright + 2005, The Baltimore Sun

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