Text 14668, 86 rader
Skriven 2005-08-19 19:47:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Global Warming
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1552092,00.html

Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world 

Russian pair challenge UK expert over global warming 

David Adam, science correspondent
Friday August 19, 2005
The Guardian 


Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming 
are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet 
$10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.
The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev 
have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.

The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial 
Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in 
the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say 
the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size 
of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun 
is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the 
Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.

Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer, in 
Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still 
looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be a nice top-
up to my pension."
To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the 
average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre 
between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 
and 2017.

If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000 (now 
equivalent to about £5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues to warm, the 
money will go the other way.

The bet is the latest in an increasingly popular field of scientific 
wagers, and comes after a string of climate change sceptics have refused 
challenges to back their controversial ideas with cash.

Dr Annan first challenged Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the 
Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is dubious about the extent of 
human activity influencing the climate. Professor Lindzen had been 
willing to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 
years.

No bet was agreed on that; Dr Annan said Prof Lindzen wanted odds of 50-
1 against falling temperatures, so would win $10,000 if the Earth cooled 
but pay out only £200 if it warmed. Seven other prominent climate change 
sceptics also failed to agree betting terms.

In May, during BBC Radio 4's Today programme, the environmental activist 
and Guardian columnist George Monbiot challenged Myron Ebell, a climate 
sceptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, in Washington DC, to a 
£5,000 bet. Mr Ebell declined, saying he had four children to put 
through university and did not want to take risks.

Most climate change sceptics dispute the findings of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which suggest that human 
activity will drive global temperatures up by between 1.4C and 5.8C by 
the end of the century.

Others, such as the Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg, argue that, although 
global warming is real, there is little we can do to prevent it and that 
we would be better off trying to adapt to living in an altered climate.

Dr Annan said bets like the one he made with the Russian sceptics are 
one way to confront the ideas. He also suggests setting up a financial-
style futures market to allow those with critical stakes in the outcome 
of climate change to gamble on predictions and hedge against future 
risk.

"Betting on sea level rise would have a very real relevance to Pacific 
islanders," he said. "By betting on rapid sea-level rise, they would 
either be able to stay in their homes at the cost of losing the bet if 
sea level rise was slow, or would win the bet and have money to pay for 
sea defences or relocation if sea level rise was rapid."

Similar agricultural commodity markets already allow farmers to hedge 
against bad weather that ruins harvests.


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