Text 1618, 122 rader
Skriven 2004-08-31 09:05:47 av John Hull (1:379/1.99)
   Kommentar till text 1593 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
Ärende: Poll Showing Bush Losing
================================
30 Aug 04 19:32, LEE LOFASO wrote to JOHN HULL:

 LL> Hello John,

 JH>>Kerry stepped in it long ago, and people are finally started to 
 JH>>smell the crap on his shoes.  Go, Speedracer, go!

 LL> Everything is smelling like roses for the Kerry camp.

 JH>>ELECTION 2004
 JH>>Bush gets pre-convention bounce
 JH>>Rasmussen polls show president ahead in electoral, popular vote

 JH>>-------------------------------------------------------------------
 JH>>--------- Posted: August 29, 2004
 JH>>11:26 p.m. Eastern

 JH>>© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

 JH>>For the first time all year, President Bush has moved ahead of John 
 JH>>Kerry in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection, just as 
 JH>>the Republican National Convention is getting underway.

 JH>>The polling comany says its latest numbers show Bush leading in 
 JH>>states with 213 electoral votes, while Kerry is ahead in states with 
 JH>>207. There are 118 electoral votes in the toss-up column, and the 
 JH>>magic number to win the White House is 270.

 LL> That is absolutely pathetic.  For Bush.  The methodology used by 
 LL> the
 LL> Rasmussen Reports is candidates with at least a 6% lead winning a
 LL> particular state.  If the margin is less than 6%, the state is 
 LL> declared
 LL> a tossup.  A sitting president polling only 213 electoral votes at
 LL> the time of his party's convention is extremely weak.  Especially 
 LL> with
 LL> the challenger polling 207 electoral votes.  What that means is 
 LL> Bush is
 LL> in deep doo-doo.  Very deep doo-doo.

Not quite.  States within the margin of error are considered toss-ups.  It
isn't the actual numbers that count either, its the trend that's important. 
Bush has been gaining on Kerry consistently.  He will gain even more before the
week is out.


 LL> What's the bottom line?  If Bush wins, he will do so only by the 
 LL> skin
 LL> of his teeth.  If Kerry wins, it might not even be close.  And 
 LL> probably
 LL> won't be.

 JH>>Over this past weekend, Arkansas, Virginia and Missouri moved from 
 JH>>toss-up t "leans Bush." Minnesota moved from "leans Kerry" to 
 JH>>toss-up. Maine and Michi moved in Kerry's direction – from toss-up 
 JH>>to "leans Kerry."

 LL> Kerry was never depending on Arkansas, Virginia, or Missouri as 
 LL> being
 LL> must-win states.  Nice to have, but not necessary.

 JH>>Rasmussen considers any state where polls show a candidate leading 
 JH>>by less t five percentage points to be a toss-up.

 LL> Less than six percentage points, according to the Rasmussen web 
 LL> site.

 JH>>The company also reports Bush is ahead in the popular vote 48-45 
 JH>>percent, th first time since the Democratic National Convention that 
 JH>>Bush has been up by more than a single point, and the first time 
 JH>>since June 12 he's been up by three points.

 LL> A virtual toss-up, given the margin of error.  However, Bush is 
 LL> strong
 LL> only in the South, having a commanding lead in that part of the 
 LL> country.
 LL> Kerry is strong in the Northeast, Far West, and Midwest, while 
 LL> being
 LL> competitive in most other parts (Utah belongs to Bush).  Bush 
 LL> needs to
 LL> sweep the South in order to have a chance to win a second term.  
 LL> Kerry
 LL> needs no states from the South, although it would be nice to win a 
 LL> few.

 LL> Of the ten largest states, Kerry is ahead in eight of them.  The
 LL> only big states Bush is ahead in is Texas and Georgia.  Kerry is 
 LL> ahead
 LL> in Florida.  And without Florida, Bush is history.

 LL> Hey, if Kerry wins all ten big states, that's the ballgame.  :)

 JH>>Meanwhile, the America Online straw poll shows Bush with an 
 JH>>electoral lead o 324-214 in its unscientific survey in which AOL 
 JH>>members are allowed to cast vote per month.

 LL> Online polls are noted for being extremely unreliable and 
 LL> inaccurate.

 JH>>As of 11 p.m. Eastern Time with more than 147,000 total votes, Bush 
 JH>>also lea in the AOL popular vote by 52-47 percent, with Ralph Nader 
 JH>>collecting one percent.

 LL> Big deal.  AOL members do not comprise a majority of the 
 LL> electorate.
 LL> Nor do AOL members reflect an accurate cross-section of the 
 LL> electorate.

You don't get it, do you, Lee?  AOL has the largest community online of all the
networks.  But that doesn't tell the whole story.  The rest of the networks are
equally as conservative.  There is a huge internet based constituency out there
that is largely conservative, and its hurting Kerry.  The primary example of
that is the Swiftboat controversy.  That started out on the internet before the
mainstream media picked up on it.

John 

America:  First, Last, and Always!
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--- Msged/386 TE 05
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