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Forward Forum
Costly Withdrawal Is the Price To Be Paid for a Foolish War
By Martin van Creveld
November 25, 2005

The number of American casualties in Iraq is now well more than 2,000, and
there is no end in sight. Some two-thirds of Americans, according to the
polls, believe the war to have been a mistake. And congressional elections
are just around the corner.

What had to come, has come. The question is no longer if American forces
will be withdrawn, but how soon — and at what cost. In this respect, as in
so many others, the obvious parallel to Iraq is Vietnam.

Confronted by a demoralized army on the battlefield and by growing
opposition at home, in 1969 the Nixon administration started withdrawing
most of its troops in order to facilitate what it called the
"Vietnamization" of the country. The rest of America's forces were pulled
out after Secretary of State Henry Kissinger negotiated a "peace
settlement" with Hanoi. As the troops withdrew, they left most of their
equipment to the Army of the Republic of South Vietnam — which just two
years later, after the fall of Saigon, lost all of it to the communists.

Clearly this is not a pleasant model to follow, but no other alternative
appears in sight.

Whereas North Vietnam at least had a government with which it was possible
to arrange a cease-fire, in Iraq the opponent consists of shadowy groups of
terrorists with no central organization or command authority. And whereas
in the early 1970s equipment was still relatively plentiful, today's armed
forces are the products of a technology-driven revolution in military
affairs. Whether that revolution has contributed to anything besides
America's national debt is open to debate. What is beyond question, though,
is that the new weapons are so few and so expensive that even the world's
largest and richest power can afford only to field a relative handful of
them.

Therefore, simply abandoning equipment or handing it over to the Iraqis, as
was done in Vietnam, is simply not an option. And even if it were, the new
Iraqi army is by all accounts much weaker, less skilled, less cohesive and
less loyal to its government than even the South Vietnamese army was. For
all intents and purposes, Washington might just as well hand over its
weapons directly to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Clearly, then, the thing to do is to forget about face-saving and conduct a
classic withdrawal.

Handing over their bases or demolishing them if necessary, American forces
will have to fall back on Baghdad. From Baghdad they will have to make
their way to the southern port city of Basra, and from there back to
Kuwait, where the whole misguided adventure began. When Prime Minister Ehud
Barak pulled Israel out of Lebanon in 2000, the military was able to carry
out the operation in a single night without incurring any casualties. That,
however, is not how things will happen in Iraq.

Not only are American forces perhaps 30 times larger, but so is the country
they have to traverse. A withdrawal probably will require several months
and incur a sizable number of casualties. As the pullout proceeds, Iraq
almost certainly will sink into an all-out civil war from which it will
take the country a long time to emerge — if, indeed, it can do so at all.
All this is inevitable and will take place whether George W. Bush, Dick
Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice like it or not.

Having been thoroughly devastated by two wars with the United States and a
decade of economic sanctions, decades will pass before Iraq can endanger
its neighbors again. Yet a complete American withdrawal is not an option;
the region, with its vast oil reserves, is simply too important for that. A
continued military presence, made up of air, sea and a moderate number of
ground forces, will be needed.

First and foremost, such a presence will be needed to counter Iran, which
for two decades now has seen the United States as "the Great Satan." Tehran
is certain to emerge as the biggest winner from the war — a winner that in
the not too distant future is likely to add nuclear warheads to the
missiles it already has. In the past, Tehran has often threatened the Gulf
States. Now that Iraq is gone, it is hard to see how anybody except the
United States can keep the Gulf States, and their oil, out of the mullahs'
clutches.

A continued American military presence will be needed also, because a
divided, chaotic, government-less Iraq is very likely to become a hornets'
nest. From it, a hundred mini-Zarqawis will spread all over the Middle
East, conducting acts of sabotage and seeking to overthrow governments in
Allah's name.

The Gulf States apart, the most vulnerable country is Jordan, as evidenced
by the recent attacks in Amman. However, Turkey, Egypt and, to a lesser
extent, Israel are also likely to feel the impact. Some of these countries,
Jordan in particular, are going to require American assistance.

Maintaining an American security presence in the region, not to mention
withdrawing forces from Iraq, will involve many complicated problems,
military as well as political. Such an endeavor, one would hope, will be
handled by a team different from — and more competent than — the one
presently in charge of the White House and Pentagon.

For misleading the American people, and launching the most foolish war
since Emperor Augustus in 9 B.C sent his legions into Germany and lost
them, Bush deserves to be impeached and, once he has been removed from
office, put on trial along with the rest of the president's men. If
convicted, they'll have plenty of time to mull over their sins.

Martin van Creveld, a professor of military history at the Hebrew
University, is author of "Transformation of War" (Free Press, 1991). He is
the only non-American author on the U.S. Army's required reading list for
officers.


Copyright 2005 © The Forward

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From van Creveld's mouth to God's ear.

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