Text 16391, 104 rader
Skriven 2005-12-01 21:06:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Kyoto
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http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177380,00.html

Global Warming Blues
Thursday, December 01, 2005

The 11th annual meeting of global warming enthusiasts in Montreal isnt turning
out to be a very happy event. Even though this is the first opportunity for the
burgeoning global climate bureaucracy to celebrate the full implementation of
the Kyoto Protocol, the realities of science, economics and politics are
raining on its parade.

First, a new study published this week in the journal Nature (Dec. 1) turns
global warming alarmism on its head. British researchers reported that the
ocean current responsible for the tropical winds that warm Europes climate has
decreased by an estimated 30 percent since 1957. The headline of the New
Scientist report (Nov. 30) on the study nicely captured its import, Failing
ocean current raises fear of mini ice age.

That conclusion, however, doesnt jibe at all with the reality of European
climate, which began warming 200 years ago and is now setting the modern
records for warm temperatures that the pro-Kyoto crowd likes to hyperventilate
about. The European Environment Agency, in fact, claimed on Nov. 29 that Europe
is currently facing the worst warming in 5,000 years with 1998, 2002, 2003 and
2004 being the four hottest years on record.

While temperatures can only go up or down at any given moment, global warmers
seem to want to have it both ways so that any change in climate, regardless of
direction, can be attributed to human activity.


The British newspaper The Independent, for example, reported in its Nov. 30
article about the Nature study that the real evidence does point to a possible
one degree Centigrade cooling over the next two decades. But the newspaper
reported in another same-day article that, the [record hot] summer of 2003 was
triggered by global warming caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases.
Such contradictory reporting casually ignores the reality that greenhouse gas
emissions cant simultaneously cool and warm Europe.

The second paragraph of The Independents article on the Nature study stated,
Disruption to the conveyor-belt mechanism that carries warm water to Britain's
shores was the basis of the Hollywood disaster movie The Day After Tomorrow.
But two paragraphs later, however, the paper noted Scientists say such
predictions are fantasy.

Its cooling. Its warming. Its disaster. Its fantasy. Whatever it is, it cant be
comforting to the Kyoto believers in Montreal who seem to think they know for
certain whether and how human activity impacts global climate.

A more sober reality, though, is that whatever slight impact humans might have
on the climate, it is too small to measure  a point made in a study just
published by Swiss researchers in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews
(November 2005).

The study reviewed prior efforts to reconstruct global temperatures of the last
1,000 years. It concluded that natural temperature variations over the last
millenium may have been so significant that they would result in a
redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in [causing]
temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact of [manmade]
emissions and affecting future predicted [global climate] scenarios.

If that turns out to be the case, the researchers stated, agreements such as
the Kyoto protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse
gases, would be less effective than thought.

So senior U.S. climate negotiator Harlan Watson was on very firm ground when he
stated this week in Montreal that, I reject the premise that the Kyoto-like
agreement is necessary to address the issue.

The U.S. stance angered the Montreal revelers. When you walk around the
conference hall here, delegates are saying there are lots of issues on the
agenda, but there's only one real problem, and thats the United States, a
Greenpeace International spokesman told the Associated Press.

But the U.S. isnt the real problem for global warmers  reality is.

First, the available scientific data simply dont add up to their desired
conclusion that humans are harming global climate. Next, even if we were to
forsake science and consider a position of erring on the side of caution, the
economic cost  2 percent or more of global economic productivity  is a steep
and certain price to pay for extremely uncertain, and potentially negative,
consequences.

Finally, the Kyoto protocol itself has been a colossal flop. European
signatories to the treaty arent meeting their current emissions reduction
targets, arent likely to in the future, and are looking for ways out of their
commitments.

Even Kyotos knight-in-shining armor, UK prime minister Tony Blair, in what has
been dubbed the Blair Switch, has embraced the latter two points. In September,
Blair announced that he had given up on climate change treaties because, The
truth is, no country is going to cut its growth or consumption substantially in
light of a long-term environmental problem.

Especially if that problem, so far as we can tell after several decades and
many billions of dollars of research, is entirely unproven.



Steven Milloy publishes JunkScience.com and CSRwatch.com, is adjunct scholar at
the Cato Institute, and is the author of Junk Science Judo: Self-defense
Against Health Scares and Scams (Cato Institute, 2001).

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