Text 16482, 170 rader
Skriven 2005-12-07 23:16:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Numbers
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Where's Bob now ? I predicted this...

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http://nytimes.com/2005/12/07/politics/07cnd-
poll.html?ei=5094&en=8158658e487b09f4&hp=&ex=1134018000&partner=homepage
&pagewanted=print

December 7, 2005
In Poll, Bush Improves on Economy but Iraq War Looms 
By ROBIN TONER
and MARJORIE CONNELLY


After months of political erosion, President Bush’s approval rating 
improved markedly in the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, largely 
tracking Americans’ more positive attitudes toward the economy.

But his presidency is still plagued by widespread doubts about his 
handling of the war in Iraq, with 52 percent saying the Bush 
administration intentionally misled the public when its officials made 
the case for war. A majority of Americans want the United States to set 
some timetable for troop withdrawal; 32 percent want the number of 
American troops reduced and 28 percent want a total pullout.

The survey, conducted Dec. 2-6, showed Mr. Bush’s approval rating at 40 
percent, up from 35 percent a month ago, which was the low point of his 
presidency. His gains primarily came among men, independents, 18-to-29-
year-olds and conservatives. He remains a fiercely polarizing figure, 
with an approval rating of 79 percent among Republicans, 12 percent 
among Democrats and 34 percent among independents.

Overall, 53 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance, down 
from 57 percent a month ago.

Despite his gains, Mr. Bush’s 40 percent approval rating remains among 
his lowest, and is still substantially lower than that of Presidents 
Clinton (who was at 58 percent) or Reagan (who was at 68 percent) at 
comparable points in their second terms.

The telephone poll of 1,155 adults nationwide has a margin of sampling 
error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

As Republican strategists have hoped, Mr. Bush seems to be getting a 
political lift from the economy. Mr. Bush has tried hard to highlight 
good economic news in recent weeks, which have seen a drop in the price 
of gasoline and new figures showing strong growth in the third quarter. 
The poll showed that 56 percent now describe the national economy as 
good, up from 47 percent a month ago.

“Things are not that bad,’’ Susan Huru, a 47-year-old independent from 
Wasilla, Alaska said in a follow-up interview after the poll was 
completed. “I can still afford things except for maybe gas.’’

Mr. Bush’s handling of the economy also got slightly better marks 38 
percent approved, up from 34 percent last month. (In contrast, his 
overall rating on foreign policy continued to fall, to 36 percent from 
38 percent in September and 42 percent in August.) 

In another measure of national mood closely followed by political 
strategists, the percentage of Americans who say the country is 
“seriously off on the wrong trackö has declined to 60 percent, from 68 
percent a month ago.

Charles Cook, who publishes an independent political newsletter tracking 
congressional races, said Mr. Bush’s uptick in the poll is “consistent 
with everything else out there.’’ He added: “It looks like they’re 
finally getting a little bit of credit for the economy performing as 
strongly as it has. We’ve had good economic news for a while, but Iraq 
so dominated things it couldn’t break through.’’

Still, eleven months before the midterm elections, the poll found much 
that was ominous for the Republican congressional majority. Only 33 
percent of Americans said they approved of the way Congress is doing its 
job, while 53 percent disapproved. Such approval ratings have been 
registered throughout 2005, reflecting a level of discontent with 
Congress that rivals the tumultuous mid-1990’s.

The Congressional approval rate among independents in the latest poll 
was just 32 percent.

If the elections were held today, 42 percent of registered voters said 
they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 33 
percent said they would vote for the Republican. 

Democrats had a substantial edge among independents, with 38 percent 
saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 22 percent 
preferred the Republican. While the poll did not measure the races in 
individual districts, the findings are indicative of the two parties 
relative strength. 

The poll suggested that Republicans are not wrong to emphasize highly 
localized races focused on the strengths and familiarity of their 
incumbents. Sixty percent of all respondents said they approved of their 
own representative’s job performance, while 24 percent disapproved.

Anxiety and doubt over the war in Iraq still pervade the political mood. 
More than half of those polled 57 percent said Congress is not asking 
enough questions about the president’s policy in Iraq.

The increasingly bitter debate over the justification for the war is 
mirrored among the public. Only 23 percent said they believed Mr. Bush, 
in the runup to the war, was telling the entire truth about the 
existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Forty-five percent 
said Mr. Bush was mostly telling the truth on the weapons but hiding 
something, and 25 percent said the president was mostly lying.

Moreover, despite the Bush administration’s intensive campaign in recent 
days to persuade the public that there is a “strategy for victoryö in 
Iraq, the poll found widespread doubt. Asked if Mr. Bush has “a clear 
plan for victory in Iraq,’’ 68 percent said he did not, 25 percent said 
he did.

The war continues to be the main focus of Mr. Bush’s critics. When asked 
why they disapproved of Mr. Bush’s job performance, more than half 
mentioned Iraq. “We were taken in on the war,’’ said Virginia Loarca, 
29, a Democrat who works in customer service for an airline. “Too many 
kids are dying and it’s not being reported on how many body bags are 
actually coming back.’’

There was some positive news for Mr. Bush on Iraq: Approval of his 
handling of Iraq rose to 36 percent, from 32 percent in October. And 
more Americans said that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do 
48 percent, compared with 42 percent in October. That increase in 
support came primarily from Republicans.

But even with that shift, Americans remain evenly divided on the war, 
with another 48 percent saying the United States should have stayed out 
of Iraq.

Fifty-eight percent said they want the United States to set a timetable 
for troop withdrawal, an idea opposed by Mr. Bush. An overwhelming 
majority 81 percent said the Bush administration has not clearly 
explained how long U.S. troops will have to remain in Iraq.

When asked what the United States should do now in Iraq, 32 percent said 
it should decrease American troop levels, while 28 percent said it 
should completely withdraw the troops. Twenty-four percent said troop 
levels should stay the same, while 11 percent backed an increase.

Not surprisingly, most Democrats and independents want U.S. troops 
decreased or completely withdrawn; most Republicans support maintaining 
or increasing the number of troops in Iraq.

Still, there are political risks for Democrats if they move too far 
toward their base: 36 percent (including a third of the independents) 
said they would be less likely to vote for their congressional 
representative if he or she advocated an immediate withdrawal, while 21 
percent said they would be more likely to vote for that official. 
Representative Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader of the House, 
recently embraced a call for a speedy withdrawal. Moreover, many 
Americans remain anxious about the impact of withdrawal; 46 percent 
saying it would increase the likelihood of violence in Iraq, and 40 
percent saying it would increase the likelihood of terrorism against the 
United States.

As the parties head into this election year, the poll found voters 
giving Democrats the advantage on handling Medicare, the economy, the 
war in Iraq and immigration. Republicans continue to have the edge as 
the party best able to deal with terrorism. But when voters are asked 
which party shares your moral values, the parties are nearly dead even 
43 percent said the Democrats, 41 percent said the Republicans.

The poll suggested Republicans are not getting much of a bounce from the 
new Medicare prescription drug program.



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