Text 1662, 121 rader
Skriven 2004-08-31 22:50:00 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av JOHN HULL
Ärende: Poll Showing Bush Losing
================================
Hello John,

>JH>Kerry stepped in it long ago, and people are finally started to
>JH>smell the crap on his shoes.  Go, Speedracer, go!

>LL>Everything is smelling like roses for the Kerry camp.

>JH>ELECTION 2004
>JH>Bush gets pre-convention bounce
>JH>Rasmussen polls show president ahead in electoral, popular vote

>JH>-------------------------------------------------------------------
>JH>--------- Posted: August 29, 2004
>JH>11:26 p.m. Eastern

>JH>© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

>JH>For the first time all year, President Bush has moved ahead of John
>JH>Kerry in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection, just as
>JH>the Republican National Convention is getting underway.

>JH>The polling comany says its latest numbers show Bush leading in
>JH>states with 213 electoral votes, while Kerry is ahead in states with
>JH>207. There are 118 electoral votes in the toss-up column, and the
>JH>magic number to win the White House is 270.

>LL>That is absolutely pathetic.  For Bush.  The methodology used by
>LL>the Rasmussen Reports is candidates with at least a 6% lead winning
>LL>a particular state.  If the margin is less than 6%, the state is
>LL>declared a tossup.  A sitting president polling only 213 electoral
>LL>votes at the time of his party's convention is extremely weak.
>LL>Especially with the challenger polling 207 electoral votes.  What
>LL>that means is Bush is in deep doo-doo.  Very deep doo-doo.

JH>Not quite.  States within the margin of error are considered toss-ups.

Less than six percent is considered a toss-up.  Six percent or greater
is considered to be in a candidate's column.

JH>It isn't the actual numbers that count either, its the trend that's
JH>important. Bush has been gaining on Kerry consistently.  He will gain
JH>even more before week is out.

Kerry has held his own, with Bush for the first time this year pulling
even or slightly ahead in total electoral votes.  However, unlike Kerry,
Bush has never polled 270 electoral votes or greater.  With such a low
poll of 213 electoral votes at the time of his party's convention, that
is pathetic for Bush.

>LL>What's the bottom line?  If Bush wins, he will do so only by the
>LL>skin of his teeth.  If Kerry wins, it might not even be close.  And
>LL>probably won't be.

>JH>Over this past weekend, Arkansas, Virginia and Missouri moved from
>JH>toss-up t "leans Bush." Minnesota moved from "leans Kerry" to
>JH>toss-up. Maine and Michi moved in Kerry's direction – from toss-up
>JH>to "leans Kerry."

>LL>Kerry was never depending on Arkansas, Virginia, or Missouri as
>LL>being must-win states.  Nice to have, but not necessary.

>JH>Rasmussen considers any state where polls show a candidate leading
>JH>by less t five percentage points to be a toss-up.

>LL>Less than six percentage points, according to the Rasmussen web
>LL>site.

>JH>The company also reports Bush is ahead in the popular vote 48-45
>JH>percent, th first time since the Democratic National Convention that
>JH>Bush has been up by more than a single point, and the first time
>JH>since June 12 he's been up by three points.

>LL>A virtual toss-up, given the margin of error.  However, Bush is
>LL>strong only in the South, having a commanding lead in that part of
>LL>the country. Kerry is strong in the Northeast, Far West, and
>LL>Midwest, while being competitive in most other parts (Utah belongs
>LL>to Bush). Bush needs to sweep the South in order to have a chance to
>LL>win a second term. Kerry needs no states from the South, although it
>LL>would be nice to win a few.

>LL>Of the ten largest states, Kerry is ahead in eight of them.  The
>LL>only big states Bush is ahead in is Texas and Georgia.  Kerry is
>LL>ahead in Florida.  And without Florida, Bush is history.

>LL>Hey, if Kerry wins all ten big states, that's the ballgame.  :)

>JH>Meanwhile, the America Online straw poll shows Bush with an
>JH>electoral lead o 324-214 in its unscientific survey in which AOL
>JH>members are allowed to cast vote per month.

>LL>Online polls are noted for being extremely unreliable and
>LL>inaccurate.

>JH>As of 11 p.m. Eastern Time with more than 147,000 total votes, Bush
>JH>also lea in the AOL popular vote by 52-47 percent, with Ralph Nader
>JH>collecting one percent.

>LL>Big deal.  AOL members do not comprise a majority of the
>LL>electorate.  Nor do AOL members reflect an accurate cross-section
>LL>of the electorate.

JH>You don't get it, do you, Lee?  AOL has the largest community online of all
JH>networks.  But that doesn't tell the whole story.  The rest of the networks
JH>equally as conservative.  There is a huge internet based constituency out th
JH>that is largely conservative, and its hurting Kerry.  The primary example of
JH>that is the Swiftboat controversy.  That started out on the internet before
JH>mainstream media picked up on it.

Online polls are unreliable and inaccurate, even moreso than telephone
polls.  And organizations which base their polls on AOL members are even
more suspect than most other online polls.

In any event, online polls are harmless, given that most folks take
such polling results with a grain of salt.

--Lee


 * SLMR 2.1a * He has a clear mind - not cluttered up with facts.
--- Platinum Xpress/Win/WINServer v3.0pr5
 * Origin: Try Our Web Based QWK: DOCSPLACE.ORG (1:123/140)