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Note to Vern, the following is an example of how to cite.  Even though it
is likely you will screw it up anyway.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/16/AR2006041600648_pf.html



Anger at Bush May Hurt GOP At Polls
Turnout Could Favor Democrats

By Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 17, 2006; A01

Intense and widespread opposition to President Bush is likely to be a sharp
spur driving voters to the polls in this fall's midterm elections,
according to strategists in both parties, a phenomenon that could give
Democrats a turnout advantage over Republicans for the first time in recent
years.

Polls have reflected voter discontent with Bush for many months, but as the
election nears, operatives are paying special attention to one subset of
the numbers. It is the wide disparity between the number of people who are
passionate in their dislike of Bush vs. those who support him with equal
fervor.

Lately, there have been a lot more of the former -- and even Republicans
acknowledge that could spell trouble in closely contested congressional races.

"Angry voters turn out and vote their anger," said Glen Bolger, a pollster
for several Republican congressional candidates. "Democrats will have an
easier time of getting out their vote because of their intense disapproval
of the president. That means we Republicans are going to have to bring our
'A' turnout game in November."

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed 47 percent of voters
"strongly" disapprove of Bush's job performance, vs. 20 percent who said
they "strongly approve."

In the recent past, this perennial truism of politics -- emotion equals
turnout -- has worked more to the Republican advantage. Several weeks
before the 2002 midterm elections, Bush had 42 percent of voters strongly
approving of him, compared with 18 percent in strong opposition. Democrats
were stunned on election night when Republicans defied historical patterns
and made gains in the House and Senate. The president's party usually loses
seats during the first midterm elections after he takes office.

The premise behind the Democrats' hopes this year is simple, though not
easy to quantify: People impassioned by anger or other sentiments are more
likely to vote -- even in bad weather and in relatively low-profile races
-- than are those who are demoralized or less emotional.

"In a midterm election, motivation is the biggest factor," said Rep. Rahm
Emanuel (D-Ill.), head of his party's House campaign efforts this year.

Whether anti-Bush sentiments portend a political tidal wave in November is
much debated, but Democrats hope they are hearing early echoes of 1974 and
1994. There was massive turnover of congressional seats in those midterm
elections, as fired-up voters first punished Republicans for Watergate, and
later turned on Democrats because of President Bill Clinton's failed
health-care initiative and because of anger over House ethics abuses.

The intense opposition to Bush is larger than any faced by Clinton. For all
the polarization the 42nd president inspired, Clinton's strong disapproval
never got above 37 percent in Post-ABC polls during his presidency.

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said GOP House candidates have reason to
worry. His surveys find that 82 percent of Americans who say they voted for
Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 plan to vote for a Democrat for the
House this year. But only 65 percent who voted for Bush say they will vote
for a Republican House nominee, Garin said. The remaining 35 percent say
they are open to voting for a Democrat or staying home.

"We get a large chunk of Bush voters who are not motivated to go out and
vote for Republicans this fall," Garin said. "That puts a lot of red
districts into play."

Republican officials acknowledge Bush's problems but predict they will not
translate into significant setbacks this fall. "I don't think that
intensity is going to be a problem at all" in key House races, said Carl
Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Both parties will spend heavily on those races, he said, "so every person
who's going to vote will have seen TV ads, gotten phone calls, gotten
mail." That will give them ample information to base their decision on the
candidates, not on their feelings toward Bush, Forti said. He noted that
polls continue to show that most Americans approve of their own House
member even if they dislike Congress as a whole, and that bodes well for
the party in power.

"They may be upset nationally," Forti said. "But clearly that does not mean
they're not going to go vote for their congressman." House elections will
turn mainly on local issues and nominees, he said.

The Post-ABC News poll found that 59 percent of registered voters approve
of their own representative, a lower number than in past months. But only
35 percent approve of the way Congress is doing its job. Forty percent said
they plan to vote for a Republican in this year's House elections, and 55
percent said they will vote for a Democrat.

Republicans will court voters such as Johanna Lee, an insurance
customer-service representative from northeast Maryland, a state with
sharply contested races for Senate and governor.

Lee, 62, describes herself as a conservative Democrat who regrets voting for
Bush in 2000 and 2004. She opposes his willingness to grant guest-worker status
to illegal immigrants, who she feels "should be taken out of our country." Lee
initially supported the invasion of Iraq, but says now "we should come out of
the war because we're not doing any good there."

Despite her discontent, Lee said she would consider voting for Republicans
for Congress and governor this fall. "I don't vote party," she said. "I
vote for the candidate."

Other voters are less charitable. Shirley Jackson of Woodbury, Minn., said
she formerly considered herself an independent voter "and my husband used
to be a staunch Republican. But now we're both Democrats."

The main reason, she said, is Bush's handling of the war. "My husband and I
think he lied to us, and he won't admit he's lied to us," said Jackson, 69.
She said she believes Bush launched the war to avenge Iraq's reported plan
to assassinate his father.

Jackson is following the competitive race to replace retiring Sen. Mark
Dayton (D), and she doesn't like Republican candidate Mark Kennedy. "I
won't vote for him, I'm pretty sure," she said.

In Collierville, Tenn., school bus driver Charlotte Bruce is worried Bush
will prove ruinous to GOP candidates this fall.

"He's making such fools out of Republicans that no matter what the
Democrats present, that's the one that's going to get in," she said. "And
that's frightening," because the country needs bipartisan balance, she
said.

Bruce, 54, said she is a moderate Republican and has given money to the
party, but now she is exasperated with Bush and his economic policies. She
recounted a conversation with neighbors who support Bush because of "moral
issues." "I said, 'While he's not killing babies, he's killing you' " with
high gasoline prices, a soaring deficit and other problems, Bruce said. "He
is going to bankrupt us all."

She said she will vote for Democrat Harold E. Ford Jr. in the contest to
replace retiring Sen. Bill Frist (R). She called Ford, a five-term House
member from nearby Memphis, "a wonderful gentleman."

Garin predicts that Bush's unpopularity will produce many voters like Bruce
and Jackson in November. "The rule this year," he said, playing on an
adage, "may be that all local politics is national."

Chris Cillizza, a staff writer for washingtonpost.com, contributed to this
report.

© 2006 The Washington Post Company
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