Text 19836, 135 rader
Skriven 2006-05-10 19:24:40 av John Hull (1:123/789.0)
  Kommentar till text 19832 av JOHNJWILSON (1:123/140)
Ärende: Refinery shortage?
==========================
JOHNJWILSON -> JOHN HULL wrote:


 J>>> The POINT is profits from crude oil are much higher than
 J>>> refining it.
 J>>> The fewer refineries the higher price of oil the bigger profits.
 J>>> Refineries take six year to build, are expensive, and
 J>>> return less profit.
 J>>> Why are oil companies reluctant?
 J>>> Well, DUH!

 ->> You really don't understand economics, do you?

 J> I majored in it for a while, got straight A's, and was on the
 J> Deand's list...

 J> I follow Galbraith (a little, I did read his "The Affluent Society"
 J> along time ago...)


 J> But to answer your question, I admit I know very little about economics...

 J> (Sigh) Now to rerad your economics lesson:


 J>   The cost in real dollars to
 ->> produce that barrel of oil, and to refine it is the same now as it was
 J> ten
 ->> years ago...

 J> And the demand has greatly increased in the past ten years and is
 J> growing far greater than anticipated supply...

Yeah, but so has the supply.  Not only has the Russian oil fields come on line
(second in size only to Saudi Arabia), but so have several smaller fields that
weren't on line ten years ago.  Bottom line:  there is more crude oil (and
hence more gas) available today than there was ten years ago.


 J> ..The cost we pay has
 ->> nothing to do with actual cost.  It is determined by supply and demand
 J> at work
 ->> in the global market, and by speculators in the futures markets for gas
 J> and oil
 ->> and petroleum products.  Beyond that, it is determined by the taxes that
 J> are
 ->> put on by government.

 J> OK...

You don't sound convinced...

 ->> If you could eliminate the tax (as we've done away with most tax on
 J> food,
 ->> etc.), and stop the speculators we'd drop the price by at least a third
 ->> immediately.

 J> A slight possibility and if so probably very temporarily. These
1> are determined miminally by factors you listed above.


I've heard several experts on more than one channel say what I just did.

 J>   Then, eliminate the boutique blend bullshit required by the EPA;

 J> Those bastards keep dragging in that pollution myth, don't they?
 J> Fucking scientists!
 J> That's been pretty much halted, Thank Bush.

 J> 'Boutique blends'? Neat-o whatEVER that means! :-)

Even the auto industry says their cars are more efficient than what the EPA
requires.  And, 20 years of data show that those boutique blends have done
little or nothing to reduce pollution from autos.  That reduction has come from
increased efficiency in the engines because of improved technology, and the
fact that 99% of the junkers pumping all the crap are off the road.


 ->> and finally, go back to pegging the price at the pump based on what the
 J> station
 ->> owner actually had to pay for that gas,,,

 J> Sure!


 J>  instead of what the speculators say its
 ->> worth (ALWAYS inflated).,,,

 J> $200/bbl, $5 a gallon...(European style)


Screw Europe.  I couldn't care less what it costs them, or why.



 J>   That would knock the price to half of what it is now,
 ->> maybe even a bit less than half.

 J> And the income deprevations thus incurred would be applied where?

 J> The congress has increased the debt 'limit' to account for its
 J> increase due to the tax cuts...

Bullshit.  The debt has nothing to do with it.


 J> My alarm at all this is relieved a little by the real conservative
 J> Republicans starting to voice _their_ alarm at this fiscal insanity.

 J> Voodoo economics tsken to absurd levels...

Oh, please, is that the best you can come up with?  That's been tried for 30+
years and has failed miserably.




 J> The opinion of one who admittedly dosen't 'know economics'...

 J> What s dismal science...

Totally, absolutely, unequivocally... WRONG!  Economics is very predictable and
elegant - if you have any inkling of how it works.

You lefties are still trying to tell people that decreasing taxes is going to
cause us to not have enough money to do this or that.  You been singing that
song since Reagan was in office.  Well, the record shows otherwise, and every
time tax rates are cut, tax revenue goes UP.  Duh!

I understand how it works and I'm just an average guy.  Talk to Jeff Binkley -
he's way beyond my level, and despite Sakowski's attempts at trashing him, his
posts on econ have never been wrong.

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