Text 2314, 113 rader
Skriven 2004-09-15 21:54:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
     Kommentar till en text av Bob Sakowski
Ärende: Election 2004
=====================
BS>Food for thought:

BS>What percentage of the people who voted for Gore in 2000 will sit out
BS>2004?

BS>What percentage of the people who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote
BS>for Bush in 2004?

BS>What percentage of the people who voted for Bush in 2000 will sit out
BS>2004?

BS>What percentage of the people who voted for Bush in 2000 will vote
BS>for Kerry in 2004?

BS>What percentage of those people who did not vote in 2000 will vote in
BS>2004?

BS>Given that in 2000 Gore outpolled Bush by over 500,000 votes:

BS>How many votes will Kerry need to outpoll Bush in order to render a
BS>repeat of the election fraud of 2000 impractical.

BS>What does this portend for November 2, 2004?


BS>Link and discuss.

Here's one opinion:

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/28562.htm

NOBODY LIKES HIM 

By DICK MORRIS 

 
 
September 15, 2004 -- JOHN Kerry is in deeper trouble than the polls 
indicate. While the Fox News survey taken last week after the Republican 
convention shows Bush with a small lead over Kerry, the internal data 
indicates big shifts against the Democrat. 

For example, Kerry is now seen unfavorably by a record 44 percent of the 
voters (his personal worst), giving him a slightly higher unfavorable 
ratio than Bush — whom 43 percent dislike. (Bush's edge comes from the 
fact that he gets 51 percent to rate him favorably, while Kerry has only 
a 46 percent favorable rating.) 

But worse, the poll shows that Kerry must face a basic problem: His own 
voters don't like him very much. 

The Fox News poll asked Kerry supporters if their vote for the Democrat 
could best be described as motivated by support for Kerry (41 percent) 
or by opposition to Bush (51 percent). By contrast, Bush voters 
emphatically say, by 82-13, that they are voting for the president 
rather than against the challenger. 

This puts Kerry in a tough position in the coming debates. He has no 
real base of support and any attenuation of the dislike his voters feel 
for Bush will weaken him substantially. All Bush has to do is to 
persuade a few Kerry voters to stop disliking him, and he can get their 
votes. There is no residual affection for the Democrat to get in the way 
of their switching to the president. 

The polls already have shown how Kerry's own voters break almost evenly 
on the issues, with half supporting the war in Iraq and half opposing 
it, and almost equal numbers saying we must stay the course as say we 
should bring the troops home. 

So Kerry can't use issues to hold his own in the debates: Whatever he 
says will antagonize some of his base. And now it's plain that he can't 
rely on personal popularity to hold them, since most are just voting 
against Bush.  

If the president gives an even moderately effective presentation and 
comes across as even somewhat likeable, he can cut deeply into Kerry's 
vote. 

In addition, the poll shows that there has been a shift in the issues on 
which voters are focused. Those who identify terrorism or homeland 
security as key issues has risen from 7 percent before the convention to 
22 percent afterward, and issues such as taxes and gay marriage, which 
did not make the polls before, now draw 4 percent each who feel they are 
the most important issue before the nation. 

Asked which is more important in their votes, national security or the 
nation's economy, voters split 45-38 for security — a clear Bush win. 

The electorate remains sharply divided in its loyalties based on voters' 
perception of the most important issue. Of those who see security as 
key, Bush wins by 68-28, while Kerry triumphs among those who focus most 
on the economy by 56-19. 

Underscoring Kerry's popularity problems, voters rate Bush better on a 
host of adjectives. Who is the stronger leader? Bush, by 51-37. Who is 
more honest and trustworthy? Bush, 42-37. Who will make the United 
States a stronger country? Bush, 46-40. Who takes strong stands and 
sticks with them? Bush, 56-27. 

Kerry only wins "Who understands the average American better?" — and by 
only 43-36. 

Kerry never had time to make America like him. He won the nomination 
before anyone really got to know him and has coasted on anti-Bush 
campaigning ever since. Even now, he relies on the old National Guard 
records of Bush to animate his campaign, as if we are about to form our 
judgment of how Bush would be as a commander based on 30-year- old, 
possibly forged records rather than on our own observation of how he has 
done the job. But Kerry has got to close the most fundamental gap of his 
candidacy: Voters don't like him very much. 

--- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10
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