Text 23959, 76 rader
Skriven 2006-10-24 13:38:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Election
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Could Rove be right yet again ?


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http://www.vote.com/magazine/columns/dickmorris/column60420992.phtml

'06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP



 By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite
encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home.
This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests
that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House
and the Senate.

With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss-
ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of
control in either House.

Here's the evidence:

* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker
gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat
for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows
a Ford edge of two points.

* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP
candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public
polls.

* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent
threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts
him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.

* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's
Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.

* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved
over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)


Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four
points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.

None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but
Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New
Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of
controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable
GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.

Why are Republican fortunes brightening?

The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of
this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory
and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act,
a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in
terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of
the Republican leaders.

Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess
tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.

Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a
disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The
Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford
to fund fully its key races.

Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean
Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans

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