Text 2483, 88 rader
Skriven 2004-09-21 07:01:27 av John Hull (1:379/1.99)
   Kommentar till text 2470 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
Ärende: POll
============
20 Sep 04 14:36, LEE LOFASO wrote to JOHN HULL:

 LL> Hello John,

 >>JB>Bush clear leader in poll
 >>JB>By Susan Page, USA TODAY

 >>JB>WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over
 >>JB>Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The
 >>JB>55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge
 >>JB>either candidate has held this year.

 >>LL>The Pew Research Center poll has it dead even at 46% apiece (47%
 >>LL>Bush 46% Kerry among likely voters). The Rasmussen Reports poll
 >>LL>has it Bush 49% and Kerry 45%, with neither candidate having the
 >>LL>needed electoral votes to win (Bush 213, Kerry 175, Tossup 150).

 >>JH>Go back and look at their previous poll numbers, though, and I
 >>JH>think you'll find that Kerry had a good lead.  Now he's a hair
 >>JH>behind.  Combine that with all the other polls that show Bush
 >>JH>opening a major lead, and the conclusion inescapable.  Kerry is in
 >>JH>deep kimshi and sinking fast.

 >>LL>Polls always fluctuate.  But it is the present that counts, and
 >>LL>election day that counts the most.  In fact, everything counts on
 >>LL>election day. But in any event, it can safely be said that Bush's
 >>LL>post-convention "bounce" has now dissipated, the race being dead
 >>LL>even once again.

 JH>>But that's just it, Lee, it hasn't dissipated.  Did you read what I 
 JH>>wrote ab at all?  It isn't the day to day or weekly numbers that are
 JH>> important, its t trend that those numbers illustrate.  And that 
 JH>>trend is leaning toward Bush, the extent that some of the states 
 JH>>once thought to be solidly locked up for Kerry are now back in play, 
 JH>>or even slightly favoring Bush in a couple of cases.

 LL> Right now, the race is dead even, or Bush slightly ahead.  
 LL> However, Kerry has to change the dynamics of the race if he is to win.

The Gallup Poll is the largest and oldest of the political polls, and has Bush
up by 12 or 13 points.  The Time Poll is next and is nearly as much.  Most of
the rest are smaller and even they have Bush ahead to some degree or another. 
Its hardly dead even when you consider the whole picture.

 JH>>Its the trend that counts, and most of the major pollsters will 
 JH>>tell you tha if they're honest.

 LL> So-called "trends" come and go.  Michael Dukakis had a 17-point 
 LL> lead in the polls over George H.W. Bush.  However, that lead was 
 LL> nothing but soft support.  Not a "trend".  Dukakis could have, and should 
 LL> have, won the election.  If only he had convinced African Americans to go 
 LL> out and vote.

How do you think analysts figure out where to steer a campaign or where to
concentrate their advertising dollars?  Trend analysis, statistics.  There are
also internal polls done by the parties that are much more in depth than the
ones done for dissemination to the general public.  Trends are much more
apparent in those than what we get. 

 LL> The same is true of Kerry.  The two groups Kerry needs in order to 
 LL> win the election are African Americans and voters 18-35 years of age.  
 LL> He also needs to at least break even among seniors.  And win a 
 LL> majority of women voters.  Kerry will get his vote among seniors and 
 LL> women.  Not sure if he'll get what he needs among African American and 
 LL> young voters.

Registration are way up among young people voting for the first time.  Last I
heard the GOP was making huge inroads among that age group.

 LL> The question is - will African Americans vote for Kerry as they 
 LL> did for Gore?  And will young voters vote at all?  Without those two 
 LL> groups strongly in his camp, Kerry is sunk.  Of course, with those two 
 LL> groups strongly in Kerry's camp, Bush is sunk.

Kerry is not getting any traction with blacks like Clinton did, according to
the reports I've seen on the news.  And I wouldn't count on young people
backing him that much.  Both of those groups depend heavily on economic issues
and Kerry hasn't talked about those much at all.  He still can't get away from
Vietnam or the war in Iraq, and all he's doing is flip-flopping on those.  He
did it again yesterday.  Bush is gonna eat him alive in the debates, too.

John 

America:  First, Last, and Always!
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