Text 25101, 137 rader
Skriven 2006-11-14 21:42:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Peak Oil
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Say it isn't so.  These same folks have been woofing about this for 30 
years.  Of course with the democrats, peak oil for domestic production 
in the US was 20 years ago...

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http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington//16012061.htm

Historian says peak oil production is still a quarter-century away
By Kevin G. Hall

McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON - Far from being a nearly exhausted resource, the world's oil 
reserves are three times bigger than what some popular estimates state, 
and peak global oil production is still about a quarter-century away, 
according to a new study by Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian Daniel 
Yergin. 


The remaining oil resource base is about 3.74 trillion barrels, 
according to a report released Tuesday by Cambridge Energy Research 
Associates, which Yergin runs. That's more than three times the 1.2 
trillion barrels that "peak-oil" theorists suggest. 


CERA's report, titled "Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down," challenges 
an increasingly popular view that the world is about to run out of oil. 
On the contrary, CERA argues that the world is likely to begin running 
out of oil between 2030 and the middle of the century. Even so, CERA 
says, efforts are needed now to push that date back, such as new oil 
field discoveries, new technologies, energy conservation and alternative 
energy sources. 


Peak-oil theorists warn that the world is on the cusp of a disastrous 
and rapid decline in oil production. A leading proponent of the theory 
is oil banker Matthew Simmons, who in the popular book "Twilight in the 
Desert" suggested that the world's top producer, Saudi Arabia, has 
entered an oil-production decline and will take the world down with it. 
Last month, Simmons told a forum that the world might have reached peak 
oil production last December. 


The peak-oil theory has gained supporters since late 2004, when surging 
global demand for oil began tightening up available supplies and driving 
up world oil prices. The price hit $78.40 a barrel in July, but has 
fallen to less than $60 a barrel in recent months. 



The CERA study debunks the so-called Hubbert Peak Oil Theory, first 
espoused in 1956 by geologist M. King Hubbert. Working at the time for 
Shell Oil Co., he predicted that world oil production would follow a 
bell-shaped curve in which production grows steadily until it peaks, 
followed by a rapid decline. 


Hubbert was pretty accurate on the timing of U.S. peak oil production, 
coming within two years of 1970, the year experts now recognize as the 
peak of continental U.S. production. 


But his theory failed to recognize that new technologies enabled 
reserves to grow over time. His theory preceded the exploitation of 
massive oil reserves in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. 


That's why Yergin dismisses talk of peak oil. 



"This is really the fifth time we've `run out of oil,'" Yergin said in a 
teleconference with journalists on Tuesday. He recalled past predictions 
dating back to 1880 of an end to oil or gasoline production. 


Yergin's views carry weight because he won the Pulitzer for his 1991 
book "The Prize," an exhaustive history of oil economics. 


He and colleagues believe that the decline in oil availability will play 
out as an "undulating plateau," in which annual production produces a 
series of ups and downs, eventually peaks and then declines slowly. 


"We see the undulating plateau existing one or two decades, rather than 
a sharp decline," said Peter Jackson, CERA's director of oil industry 
activity. He sees outright decline beginning no earlier than 2030 and 
perhaps after 2050. 


Future oil supplies, said CERA, will be accessible by new technologies 
that permit drilling more than 7,000 feet below the ocean's surface or 
extracting oil from tar-like deposits in sandy soil found in western 
Canada. 


"Ours is not a view of endless abundance of resources," said Jackson, 
cautioning that he doesn't want CERA's findings to "distract us from 
addressing real issues." 



Another source of optimism for this energy-hungry world emerged from 
another report this week, this one a technical paper from the Los 
Angeles-based think tank Rand Corp. It ran 1,500 simulations of varied 
energy prices and technology costs to estimate future supplies of both 
renewable and nonrenewable fuels. 


It concluded that up to one-quarter of the electricity and motor fuels 
consumed in the United States in 2025 could be produced from renewable 
sources, up from only 6 percent today. For that to happen, the price of 
fossil fuels must remain high and the costs of producing alternative 
energy must keep falling. 


"The renewables case could displace about 2.5 million barrels a day of 
petroleum products in the United States in 2025, or 20 percent of total 
consumption," the Rand report said. 




Together, the two reports give hope that energy will be plentiful for 
another generation or more. 


"I've never seen so much activity in terms of energy technology all 
along the spectrum," Yergin said. "I think the system is responding." 


For more on the CERA study, click here:

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