Text 25199, 108 rader
Skriven 2006-11-17 10:05:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Global Warming
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It is amazing how folks make broad based predictions on a 10, 20 or 30 year
time horizon.  This is why Owl and his minions are full of crap... One good
volcanic eruption and we'll have gloabl cooling for the next 25-50 years..

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http://www.adn.com/news/environment/warming/story/8417240p-8310749c.html

Arctic resists warming
RESEARCHERS: New patterns of cooling ocean currents, winds suggest region is
struggling to keep its balance.

By ROBERT LEE HOTZ
Los Angeles Times

Published: November 17, 2006
Last Modified: November 17, 2006 at 02:31 AM


An international team of scientists reported Thursday that rising temperatures
are steadily transforming the Arctic -- warming millions of square miles of
permafrost, promoting lush greenery on previously arid tundras and steadily
shrinking the annual sea ice.


Yet the researchers also found new patterns of cooling ocean currents and
prevailing winds that suggested the Arctic, long considered a bellwether of
global warming, may be reverting in some ways to more normal conditions not
seen since the 1970s.

Taken together, these findings may be evidence, the researchers said, of the
region struggling to keep its balance, as rising temperatures slowly overturn
the long-established order of seasonal variations.

"This is a region that is fighting back," said lead author Jacqueline
Richter-Menge, a civil engineer at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering
Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. "There are things that showed signs of going back
to norms, trying to right themselves under very dire circumstances."

For a year, 20 researchers in seven countries reviewed the condition of the
atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land at the top of the world. They summarized
their findings in the "State of The Arctic," a report released Thursday by the
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

On average, global temperatures have been steadily warming for decades -- 2005
was the warmest year since record-keeping began in 1880 -- but the polar region
appears to be warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. Local weather
variations at Earth's upper latitudes create a seesaw of annual hot spots and
cold sinks above the Arctic Circle that, combined with incomplete data records,
can easily disguise longer regional climate trends.

By pulling together data from many countries and scientific sources, the
researchers sought to determine more conclusively how the climate throughout
the Arctic behaved from 2000 through winter 2006.

"Arctic temperatures were above their average -- at least 1 degree centigrade
above average over the entire Arctic over the entire year. This is a unique
situation," said co-author James Overland at NOAA's Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory in Seattle.

The study reports an increase in northward movement of warmer water through the
Bering Strait in 2001 to 2004. This may have contributed to a continuing
reduction of sea ice.

Last year, the Arctic sea ice set record lows every month except May, the
researchers reported, continuing a trend that started in 2000. The permanent
ice cap has been thinning as well. Summer melting began earlier every year of
the study and was more extensive.

Glaciers everywhere receded. For the past five years, rivers flowing into the
Arctic Ocean have been 3 percent to 9 percent higher than average with fresh
melt water, stream gauges showed. That, in turn, has made the seawater less
salty, affecting ocean currents.

Permafrost throughout the Alaska Arctic steadily warmed, records documented.
Last year, soil temperatures in the interior of Alaska were among the warmest
of the past 70 years, the researchers reported.

In response, vegetation in the tundras increased by 10 percent over the past 20
years, satellite measurements showed.

Shrubs rooted more readily above the Arctic Circle in Alaska and Siberia. The
new ground cover provided shelter for some creatures while making it harder for
others, such as reindeer and caribou herds, to move through their grazing
grounds.

The study was designed to assess the overall impact of climate change in the
Arctic and will be updated annually. It was compiled by researchers from the
United States, Canada France, Germany, Poland, Norway, Sweden and Russia, she
said.

In addition, 2007 has been designated the International Year of the Arctic,
with intense scientific study of the region planned.

There have been many changes over the Arctic land areas, said Vladimir E.
Romanovsky, a professor at the geophysical institute of the University of
Alaska. These include changes in vegetation, river discharge into the Arctic
Ocean, glaciers and permafrost.

The tundra is becoming greener with the growth of more shrubs, he said. This
development is causing problems in some areas as herds of reindeer migrate.

At the same time, there is some decrease in the greening of the northern forest
areas, probably due to drought. The glaciers are continuing to shrink and river
discharge into the Arctic Ocean is rising, Romanovsky said.

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