Text 2624, 224 rader
Skriven 2004-09-28 05:14:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Poll
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http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1803&u=/washpost/20040928/pl_w
ashpost/a54435_2004sep27&printer=1

Poll Shows Bush With Solid Lead

Tue Sep 28, 1:00 AM ET 

By Dan Balz and Vanessa Williams, Washington Post Staff Writers 

President Bush (news - web sites) heads into the first presidential 
debate with a solid lead over John F. Kerry, boosted by the perception 
that he is a stronger leader with a clearer vision, despite deep 
concerns about Iraq (news - web sites) and the pace of the economic 
recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll and 
interviews with voters in battleground states.


Bush's relentless attacks on Kerry have badly damaged the Democratic 
nominee, the survey and interviews showed. Voters routinely describe 
Kerry as wishy-washy, as a flip-flopper and as a candidate they are not 
sure they can trust, almost as if they are reading from Bush campaign ad 
scripts. But Kerry's problems are also partly of his own making. Despite 
repeated efforts to flesh out his proposals on Iraq, terrorism and other 
issues, he has yet to break through to undecided voters as someone who 
has clear plans for fixing the country's biggest problems.


Bush remains a polarizing figure, strongly admired by his supporters and 
despised by partisans on the left. Some swing voters who disagree with 
his policies nonetheless see him as a confident leader and express 
reluctance to vote him out of office in the middle of the struggle 
against terrorism, unless Kerry convinces them that he can do a better 
job.


Among those voters who dislike Bush's policies and are still making up 
their minds, the three presidential debates may offer Kerry his last 
opportunity to show them that he has what they are looking for in a 
president.


Jim Vyvyan, a high school teacher from Union Grove, Wis., said his and 
his wife's decisions are likely to hinge on the debates, which begin 
Thursday in Miami with a discussion of foreign policy. Vyvyan opposed 
the Iraq war from the beginning and does not believe the upbeat 
appraisals of conditions there from Bush and Iraq's interim prime 
minister, Ayad Allawi. But he harbors strong doubts about Kerry.


"Actually I would have voted for Kerry three months ago, but he's not 
improved or not shown his positions any more clearly in the last three 
months than he did a year ago," Vyvyan said. "I think he's trying to be 
everything to everybody, and you just can't."


Americans remain deeply divided over Bush's presidency. As many are 
dissatisfied with the direction of the country as are satisfied (49 
percent each), according to the Post-ABC poll, and overall those 
surveyed give the president identical negative marks on his handling of 
Iraq and the economy.


Forty-seven percent approve of the job Bush is doing on the economy and 
on Iraq, with 50 percent saying they disapprove. After two weeks of bad 
news from Iraq that has included the beheadings of two Americans, more 
U.S. casualties and continued bombings, a narrow majority (51 percent to 
46 percent) once again says the war was not worth fighting. Only on his 
handling of terrorism does Bush receive strongly positive marks, with 59 
percent approving and 38 percent disapproving.


Voters in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Missouri and Wisconsin gave 
voice to the concerns recorded in those poll numbers.


Trina Moss, 47, a single mother from Wilkes-Barre, Pa., lost her job of 
25 years last month when the company she worked for closed down. She 
will vote Democratic for the first time since she was 18. "I don't care 
what Bush is saying -- he's lying," she said. "I saw what was happening 
to this economy. It really didn't hit me until it happened to me. . . . 
I feel so strongly that Bush is responsible for the factory closing, 
because of outsourcing, that I've signed up to help the Kerry campaign 
get out the vote."


Stacey Waechter, 25, lives in the St. Louis suburbs. A student who is a 
part-time caregiver, Waechter worries about a lack of access to health 
care and what she sees as a shrinking middle class. "We have such 
problems in our community," she said, "homeless people, single mothers -- 
that until we deal with these issues going on here . . . how can we fix 
another country?"


Don Hoffmeister, 72, a retiree who lives in the Milwaukee suburb of 
Brown Deer, Wis., said he has become disillusioned over Iraq, though he 
supported the U.S. invasion. "It's gone on way too long," he said. 
"There are very optimistic comments out of our president and every day 
there's more Americans being killed, aren't there?" He added, 
sarcastically: "I don't follow this very closely, but supposedly the war 
is over and we have won, right? Right!"


Despite these concerns, Bush leads Kerry in a hypothetical ballot test, 
51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, in the new poll, with 
independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 1 percent. In the previous 
Post-ABC News poll, taken in the week after the Republican National 
Convention, Bush led Kerry 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. 
Among registered voters, the new poll shows Bush ahead 51 percent to 44 
percent, virtually unchanged from a few weeks ago.


Bush holds a double-digit lead among men (53 percent to 41 percent) and 
a narrow lead among women (49 percent to 46 percent). Four years ago, Al 
Gore (news - web sites) carried the female vote by 11 percentage points, 
and Kerry advisers know he must do much better among women to win the 
election. 


Bush's overall approval rating stands at 50 percent in the poll, about 
where it has been for the past two months, after dipping as low as 47 
percent in the late spring.


The poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 23 to 26 among 1,204 randomly 
selected adults nationwide, including 969 self-identified registered 
voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage 
points.


Five weeks before the election, interest in the campaign is 
extraordinarily high, with 87 percent of those surveyed saying they are 
following it either very or somewhat closely. Four years ago at this 
point, about a quarter said they were following the campaign very 
closely; the new poll shows that 48 percent are following it very 
closely. Two in three voters said this election is one of the most 
important in their lifetimes.


Bush has built his lead by besting Kerry in voters' perceptions of the 
two men's attributes and on their impressions of who is best equipped to 
handle the big issues facing the country. Voters say Bush rather than 
Kerry is better able by double-digit margins to deal with Iraq and 
terrorism and by lesser margins the economy and relations with other 
countries. Kerry holds a narrow lead on creating jobs.

Majorities say Bush is a strong leader, has taken a clear stand on 
issues, has an appealing personality and will make the country safer. A 
plurality gives Bush the edge on who is honest and trustworthy and who 
"shares your values," while the two receive roughly equal marks on who 
understands "the problems of people like you." A majority (55 percent) 
said Bush is too willing to take risks.

A majority of voters said Bush and Kerry have both offered clear plans 
on the economy, but on Iraq and terrorism, voters gave Bush far better 
marks. Three in five (62 percent) said Bush has a clear plan for 
fighting terrorism, but fewer than two in five (36 percent) said the 
same of Kerry. On Iraq, 53 percent said Bush has a plan to deal with the 
insurgency there, while 38 percent said Kerry has a plan. The polling 
came at the end of a week in which Kerry delivered major speeches 
outlining his plans for both Iraq and terrorism.

Interviews with voters produced widely varying impressions of Bush. "I 
can't think of anything I don't like about George Bush (news - web 
sites)," said Janice Bauman, who was sitting outside her Brown Deer home 
Saturday morning. At the other end of the spectrum was Alan Rowlson of 
St. Louis, who said: "I hate Bush. I would never vote for Bush. I think 
he's evil."

In the poll, the economy rates as the number one problem on voters' 
minds. Those who cite the economy as the top issue go heavily for Kerry, 
59 percent to 34 percent. "I believe in a strong security and military, 
but I also believe that we should focus on what's going on here at 
home," said Cassie Polchek, 23, of Wilkes-Barre. Saying she will 
register and vote, she added: "I think it's time we start looking at 
what's going on in this country and time the candidates stop talking 
only about Iraq, unless they talk about how they're going to make it all 
work."

Although terrorism rates slightly higher than Iraq among national 
security issues, voters interviewed were more anxious to talk about 
Iraq. Bush supporters said they continue to have confidence in him 
despite the problems there. "He's had multiple opportunities to back 
away from the war, but he believed it was the right thing to do and he 
went for it," said Sam Ingerman, 23, who was taking a break from his job 
as a waiter in the St. Louis suburbs.

Anthony Hinrichs, 33, and his wife, Rachelle, 34, who live in St. Louis 
County, usually cancel out each other's votes: He supports Democrats, 
and she backs Republicans. In this election, he is firmly opposed to 
Bush, primarily because of the war. He believes that Bush launched the 
war without good cause, and he is "even more against it now" because no 
weapons of mass destruction have been found. But he is not enamored of 
Kerry. "I would have voted for Gore again more happily," he said.

Rachelle Hinrichs said she is still making up her mind, to the surprise 
of her husband. She is bothered by Bush's environmental policies, 
described his tax cuts as silly and worries about Iraq because she does 
not want her brother, who already served there, to go back. But she 
described Kerry as someone who "keeps trying to act like a man of the 
people, but he's not like us."

Bush's supporters are far more energized, with 61 percent saying they 
are very enthusiastic about voting for him, compared with 39 percent of 
Kerry supporters who said the same thing. Kerry's supporters were much 
more enthusiastic about him just after the Democratic convention but 
have cooled since then.

Mel Culp was waiting for his wife at the Mayfair Mall in Wauwatosa, 
Wis., Saturday when he was asked about his vote in November. Culp is a 
McCain Republican who supported Gore in 2000. He is worried about the 
impact of outsourcing on the high-tech industry and, as one who served 
in the Navy for 25 years, believes the credibility of Bush's Iraq 
advisers is "pretty well shot."

But when it comes to his vote, Culp said he is undecided because Kerry 
has not articulated positions he finds meaningful. "His biggest card 
right now is the 'anybody but Bush' card, and I'm not there yet," he 
said. "We'll see how it sorts itself out." 

Staff writer Evelyn Nieves, polling director Richard Morin and senior 
polling analyst Christopher Muste contributed to this report.

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