Text 27049, 72 rader
Skriven 2007-02-06 22:20:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
     Kommentar till en text av Bob Ackley
Ärende: Wetbacks, the Border, sol
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BA> BA>> I've been running gasohol (10% ethanol, or E-10) in my cars
BA> BA>> since 1979 with no problems (except the older ones needed a new
BA> BA>> fuel filter after the first month or so, gasohol dissolves all
BA> BA>> the accumulated crud in the tank and lines and it  gets pumped
BA> BA>> on toward the carburetor).

BA> JB> I have no problems with a limited amount of ethanol production.
BA> JB> I too  use gas with it added.  The problem would be if we
BA> JB> attempted further  largescale production and tried to convert
BA> JB> over to it completely.  

BA> BA>> Whether or not it's going to be a fiasco I can't predict.  I do
BA> BA>> know that there are a LOT of ethanol plants either under
BA> BA>> construction or in the planning stages in this general area,
BA> BA>> and a couple within about 30 miles of me.  I'm skeptical and am
BA> BA>> not convinced that the demand will be there when the supply is
BA> BA>> ready.

BA> JB> Which could be another problem.  

BA>I still hear advertisements on the radio that such-and-such company
BA>is planning to build a xxx-million gallon capacity ethanol plant at
BA>wherever.  As I noted above,
BA>I'm not sure that the demand will be there when all the plants now
BA>under construction
BA>go into production.  If it isn't, all those folks who invested in the
BA>new plants are
BA>going to lose money - maybe a lot of it.

They will anyway.  Ethanol costs more to produce than it sells for right 
now.


BA> BA>> I did note a recent story that the price of tortillas in Mexico
BA> BA>> has risen sharply, supposedly due to the high price of corn
BA> BA>> (it's about $4/bushel - maybe a bit less - as opposed to
BA> BA>> $1.50/bushel after the 2005 harvest); I don't know why it's so
BA> BA>> high because most of the ethanol plants that have been
BA> BA>> announced in the past couple of years have yet to start
BA> BA>> production - so those plants' demand for corn doesn't yet
BA> BA>> exist.

BA> JB> Yes, it is up due to all of those new ethanol plants.  This is
BA> JB> just the  beginning and can still be managed.  

BA>I don't see how.  Most of those new ethanol plants haven't started
BA>operations and aren't buying corn yet.  Maybe it's the big operators
BA>(Cargill, Scoular) speculating
BA>on a huge increase in demand for the stuff and buying up the supply
BA>in advance.  As
BA>I read elsewhere (or maybe it was here), sugar cane is a better
BA>feedstock for ethanol
BA>production (presumably sugar beets are, too) and that can be grown in
BA>most of the 
BA>southern tier states.

BA>It's also possible to make useable diesel from soybeans - and there
BA>are a few plants
BA>that make it (biodiesel) - but I haven't seen an uptick in soybean
BA>prices.  Yet.

I think the key is to balance and limit the usage on all of these fuels 
until we better understand the ramifications of its usage and 
production.  Wild speculation is rarely good in an immature market.


Jeff



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