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Ärende: Bush support
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http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20070226/opcomreligion66.art.htm

GOP is abandoning Bush? Not quite
By Richard Benedetto

The Washington punditocracy has proclaimed far and wide that Republicans,
disenchanted with the war in Iraq, are abandoning President Bush in droves,
leaving him the lamest of lame ducks. However, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll
suggests Bush might not be as wounded as he appears  at least not among his
party faithful.

The Feb. 9-11 poll puts Bush's job approval at 37%, but among people who
identify themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, his approval rating is
76%.

Thus, despite bad news from Baghdad and carefully crafted hand-wringing by
high-profile GOP war critics in Congress such as Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska,
three of four Republicans in the country are hanging in there with the
president.

The poll also shows that rank-and-file Republicans have higher regard for the
president than they do Republicans in Congress. They gave GOP lawmakers a 63%
job-approval rating, 13 points below Bush's. And 72% of Republicans do not
think Bush made a mistake sending U.S. troops to Iraq.

So if congressional Republicans figure the key to re-election in 2008 is taking
a hard line against Bush on Iraq, they could be dead wrong. They might lure
some independents, but they risk alienating their GOP base. To win, you need
solid support from your base plus independents, not independents alone.

Conventional wisdom also says the presidential ambitions of Sen. John McCain,
R-Ariz., could be derailed by his strong support for the war. This poll,
however, shows that his stance could be a plus among the base.

What does this high approval among Republicans mean for Bush? It means that as
long as his party support remains that strong, he won't fall below 30%
approval, a depth that would virtually extinguish his political power. The
lowest Bush has fallen is 31%, still enough to make him a significant, although
wounded, force in legislative battles with the Democratic-controlled Congress.

The latest congressional skirmish over Iraq underscores the point. In the
House's non-binding vote to oppose the president's deployment of more troops to
Baghdad, 17 Republicans voted with 229 Democrats to pass the measure. Four GOP
representatives didn't vote. Lost was the fact that 180 Republicans stuck with
Bush. By that count, Bush gets a 92% loyalty standing among House Republicans
who voted. Hardly a GOP exodus.

In the Senate, Democrats fell four votes short of the 60 needed to force a vote
on an identical Iraq resolution. Why? Not enough Republicans would go along.
Indeed, seven GOP senators broke with the president, and nine didn't vote, yet
33 held firm. Among GOP senators who voted, that's an 83% Republican loyalty
rating for Bush.

Though the president may have lost the country on the issues of the day, rumors
of his demise among Republicans voters and lawmakers are greatly exaggerated.


Richard Benedetto retired last year as White House correspondent for USA TODAY.
He teaches journalism and politics at American University in Washington and is
author of Politicians Are People, Too.

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