Text 28859, 163 rader
Skriven 2007-05-21 23:13:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Iran
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2085195,00.html
Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq
Simon Tisdall
Tuesday May 22, 2007
The Guardian
US soldiers visit an Iraqi army base in Amiriya, a Sunni neighbourhood
in west Baghdad. Photograph: Sean Smith
Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab
militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition
forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full
military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course
for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war
against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned.
"They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine
US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and
the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the
Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian
government]."
The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-
orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to
Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political
mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran
will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence
prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General
David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's
controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop
reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There
is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-sponsored
capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that
from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the huge stockpiles of
Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last couple of months. The
relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid," the
official said.
"It often comes down to individuals, and people constantly move around.
For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called resistance groups use Salafi
jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the whole Iran- al-Qaida
linkup is very sinister."
Iran has maintained close links to Iraq's Shia political parties and
militias but has previously eschewed collaboration with al-Qaida and
Sunni insurgents.
US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched
tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel
development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its
previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the
Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces.
Tehran's strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive
congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not
confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence, the
senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination
with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi as well as
Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, he added.
Iran was also expanding contacts across the board with paramilitary
forces and political groups, including Kurdish parties such as the PUK,
a US ally.
"Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Iran is
playing all these different factions to maximise its future control and
maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator is Syria
which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to come
across the border," the official said.
Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on its own territory could be
taken only at the highest political level in Washington, the official
said. But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin.
Warning that the US was "absolutely determined" to hit back hard
wherever it was challenged by Iranian proxies or agents inside Iraq, he
cited the case of five alleged members of the Revolutionary Guard's al-
Quds force detained in Irbil in January. Despite strenuous protests from
Tehran, which claims the men are diplomats, they have still not been
released.
"Tehran is behaving like a racecourse gambler. They're betting on all
the horses in the race, even on people they fundamentally don't trust,"
a senior administration official in Washington said. "They don't know
what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they're hedging their bets."
The administration official also claimed that notwithstanding recent US
and British overtures, Syria was still collaborating closely with Iran's
strategy in Iraq.
"80% to 90%" of the foreign jihadis entering Iraq were doing so from
Syrian territory, he said.
Despite recent diplomatic contacts, and an agreement to hold bilateral
talks at ambassadorial level in Baghdad next week, US officials say
there has been no let-up in hostile Iranian activities, including
continuing support for violence, weapons smuggling and training.
"Iran is perpetuating the cycle of sectarian violence through support
for extra-judicial killing and murder cells. They bring Iraqi militia
members and insurgent groups into Iran for training and then help
infiltrate them back into the country. We have plenty of evidence from a
variety of sources. There's no argument about that. That's just a fact,"
the senior official in Baghdad said.
In trying to force an American retreat, Iran's hardline leadership also
hoped to bring about a humiliating political and diplomatic defeat for
the US that would reduce Washington's regional influence while
increasing Tehran's own.
But if Iran succeeded in "prematurely" driving US and British forces out
of Iraq, the likely result would be a "colossal humanitarian disaster"
and possible regional war drawing in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, Syria
and Turkey, he said.
Despite such concerns, or because of them, the US welcomed the chance to
talk to Iran, the senior administration official said. "Our agenda
starts with force protection in Iraq," he said. But there were many
other Iraq-related issues to be discussed. Recent pressure had shown
that Iran's behaviour could be modified, the official claimed: "Last
winter they were literally getting away with murder."
But tougher action by security forces in Iraq against Iranian agents and
networks, the dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier group to the
Gulf and UN security council resolutions imposing sanctions had given
Tehran pause, he said.
Washington analysts and commentators predict that Gen Petraeus's report
to the White House and Congress in early September will be a pivotal
moment in the history of the four-and-a-half-year war - and a decision
to begin a troop drawdown or continue with the surge policy will hinge
on the outcome. Most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress believe
Iraq is in the grip of a civil war and that there is little that a
continuing military presence can achieve. "Political will has already
failed. It's over," a former Bush administration official said.
A senior adviser to Gen Petraeus reported this month that the surge had
reduced violence, especially sectarian killings, in the Baghdad area and
Sunni-dominated Anbar province. But the adviser admitted that much of
the trouble had merely moved elsewhere, "resulting in spikes of activity
in Diyala [to the north] and some areas to the south of the capital".
"Overall violence is at about the same level [as when the surge began in
February]."
Iranian officials flatly deny US and British allegations of involvement
in internal violence in Iraq or in attacks on coalition forces.
Interviewed in Tehran recently, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, deputy foreign
minister for Arab affairs with primary responsibility for Iran's policy
in Iraq, said: "We believe it would be to the benefit of both the
occupiers and the Iraqi people that they [the coalition forces] withdraw
immediately."
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